저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
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연준은 경제 회복력 때문에 금리 인하를 서두르지 않을 것이며, 시장이 기대하는 3월 인하는 어렵고 올해 인하는 2~3회 수준이라고 봄. 비트코인 ETF 승인에 대해 정부가 암호화폐를 선호하지 않는다는 견해를 밝힘. 중국 증시 부진과 인도 강세 대비, 인도 성장 전망이 좋다고 평가. 씨티그룹 실적 쇼크 우려는 예외적 사례로 봄.
다듬은 글
Ed yini is president at yini research he's joining us now to take some questions Ed Ed good to have you back on the program thanks very much for your time uh you know so there is constant push back to you know don't expect the First Rate cut in March uh overnight the statement on the balance sheet uh so is this just the FED trying to temper expectations here a little bit Market's paying no attention I think so I think you're you're you're right ask the question because uh the the markets have been counting four to five rate Cuts this year starting in March and I think fed officials uh would rather stay very flexible and stay restrictive as long as they can because the the worst case scenario for them is that they ease too much too soon and inflation makes a comeback so as long as the economy remains resilient which is it seems to be quite resilient I think the fed's going to hold off on Race lowering interest rates too quickly and I don't think we're going to have a rate cut until the second half of the year I think maybe we'll get two or three rate Cuts maybe two or three rate Cuts maybe and this is uh when markets were expecting six as we rolled into 2024 Ed good morning or rather good evening your time thank you very much for joining in uh you know let me ask you about the other development on the crypto side that happened and I I'm asking this because I want to know if if it could potentially have any impact in terms of money flows from one market to the other what did you make of this ETF approval it was always going to come I think that was the expectation but then the statement seems to still sound a bit hawkish on this asset class as a whole how do you read it and do you expect any impact on money flows between cryptos bonds and equities I think the government is uh kind of torn about what to do about Bitcoin I I think if they had their way they would prefer no cryptocurrencies at all uh it's certainly a competition for the FED it's certainly uh provides uh a payment system for illegal activities and so I'm I'm actually quite surprised that they've gone this far in terms of uh you know basically saying giving their their blessings to to an ETF but uh yeah I think I think they're going to be monitoring it very very carefully as they should hi Ed morning uh good to see you when Ed what do you make of the Asian market screen though India's done pretty well Japan out of no has come back multi-year highes out there and the Chinese market continues to struggle uh how do you read the Asian markets well I think a lot of money that might have gone to China is going to other Asian countries for sure um the Chinese Market's been doing terribly because the Chinese economy is doing terribly and um I have a chart uh that one of these days uh I'll maybe we can show you show on the program which shows China the msci for China versus the msci for India and it's startling what a Divergence there has been in in recent years uh so I I think this clearly indicates that China is no longer viewed as a emerging market that you definitely have to own no uh and and we love to see that chart although I must say that you know that comparison is uh I think a lot of our audience said we've shown that chart in different ways not the msci one but it's remarkable right as you put it over the last and it's not 5 years 10 years it's 20 25 years uh although you know to that point uh Akash prakash Who's the oldtime I mean he was ex Morgan Stanley runs his own fun amansa capital in in and you know well respected figure he wrote a piece here recently making that very comparison but drawing a different conclusion his point was that don't confuse GDP with what stock markets do uh and and you know he cited the example of China China was of course this economic Mir miracle and stocks have performed very poorly for 20 years right uh and and he was kind of asking the question whether in India uh growth will be strong for many years to come but uh have we had uh sort of have you borrowed from the future in terms of stock market returns just your thoughts there Ed briefly well I think the prospects remained very good for India it's uh clearly compared to China it's a much free economy uh it's a much young younger economy demographically and uh there's a lot of onshoring going on meaning that a lot of companies are leaving China looking for other places to do their their their production and their business and I think uh a lot of companies went to China thinking that is Market of over a billion people and they should be able to make a lot of money but it turned out that the regulatory environment was very very restrictive Ive and so suddenly uh not suddenly but over the past several years people have come around to recognize that India is an excellent alternative to to China and that again China's got an economy that's probably structurally in trouble for a while he all right Ed uh before we wrap up I just want to point out an update that's coming now there's something we'll be talking about tomorrow because you know uh we'll start getting a lot of the big Bank earnings in the US and the this is just out City group has just given out an investor warning ahead of its Friday results that some of the charges that it has to take on you know currency issues with respect to the P piso and the banks restructuring they would be huge far higher than what city had earlier indicated City could report a loss that's not what markets would like to hear but and very quickly as we roll out into the earning season Me overall on the US market in the short term are you are you optimistic and uh you know how you some of these I am optimistic I think I think City's an outlier okay all right I just had to get that you know Clarity from you thank you very much for joining in good talking to you as always
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