저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
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2024년 미국 경기는 연착륙 가능성이 높고 소비·설비투자·주택시장 회복이 기대됨. 시장은 4~5회 금리인하를 반영하나 연준은 더 신중할 가능성, 2~3회 수준에 그칠 수 있어 조정 가능성 존재. 주식시장 쏠림은 메가캡 기술주에서 중소형주·글로벌 분산으로 이동 중이며, 유럽 회복과 인도 선호(중국 대비), 지정학(대만·러시아-우크라이나·가자) 리스크를 핵심으로 꼽음.
다듬은 글
but let's kick it off with the First Market conversation of the day Ed yini president at yini researchers with us Mr yini good morning Happy New Year season's greetings to you hopefully it's going to be a very positive 24 for you for us for all of our viewers as well and that's my really first my my first question that we're starting off uh looking at a lot of positives and we were just discussing this the possibility of a soft Landing in the US raid cuts and what not do you think it can really be such a good year for uh the broader economy as well as for stock markets I think the economic Outlook uh for the US economy is still quite good we had better than expected economic growth in 2023 I think everybody's now recognizing that maybe we're not going to have a recession after all I think the consumer is going to continue to spend we've got some still strong Capital spending because of onshoring the housing market is likely to start to recover with lower interest rates so the short answer is yeah I think I think we are going to going to see a a solid growth rate in the US economy uh it might be better than expected if productivity continues to make a comeback as it seemed to be doing in the second and third quarters globally uh things still look pretty weak uh China's uh purchasing managers index came out on the weak side uh Europe still in a shallow recession and will'll probably recover later in the year but on the other hand countries like uh an important country like India in the emerging market areas doing very well and uh just to take forward the conversation that we had last week about uh us rate Cuts uh the market is pricing or hoping or expecting for about four to five rate Cuts if the US economy is indeed so solid uh there is no need to aggressively Cut Rate no you're right and your forecast was I think for two rate Cuts uh in 2024 so will the markets investors be disappointed by fewer rate Cuts can that play a bit bit of a spoil sport well there could be some correction uh if and when the market starts to conclude that the FED isn't going to be quite as uh easy as is has been discounted recently and I won't be surprised if fed officials really come out uh talking quite hawkish trying to convince people not to overreact here and anticipate too much of an easing move uh but on the other hand if the Eon if the if it's only going to be two maybe three rate Cuts next year it'll be because the economy is doing well with inflation down closer to where the FED wants it to be and so the FED May conclude that the econom is resilient enough that keeping interest rates uh just uh somewhat lower is the right thing to do I think they're still going to uh regret having been late to uh deal with inflation in at the beginning of 20 22 and I think they're going to ow this time time around be a little bit more cautious about getting the markets OV excited about how low interest rates are going to go fearing that easing Financial conditions might revive inflation hi Ed good morning first of all a very very happy New Year to you as well as your entire team and wishing you all the best in 2024 as well but given the kind of rally we have seen Ed in the last couple of months or so what's your Approach to Global equities on the whole you know we've had a very very sharp rally both the us markets as well as the Indian markets so in terms of fresh allocation what would the strategy be at this juncture you know between Global Equity markets as well as across asset classes well I think what we're seeing is that uh Global Investors are becoming a little less focused on what I call the mega cap H stocks in the US the big technology companies some people leave out Netflix and call them the Magnificent s but I think more money is starting to head out to to other parts of the US economy and the global economy uh we're certainly seeing in the United States a broadening of the stock market to small and midcap companies so that's a very healthy development reflecting the fact that people are less concerned about a recession and believe that interest rates are going to come down somewhat and then of course uh people diversify on a global basis and if uh if it looks as though the US economy is going to hang in there pretty well Europe might have some sort of recovery and maybe the Chinese government will come out with some sort of stimulus package the rest of the world will look pretty good and uh so we could see European stocks continuing to do better India's done remarkably well and could very well continue to do so I still prefer an Emerging Markets investing in India over China uh because I think uh we're still going to see a continuation of uh Capital moving out of China because of uh geopolitical tensions with China over Taiwan and because of U their restrictive policies and the domestic side okay well that sounds good to us we are we aren't complaining there uh Mr YY finally you know apart from geopolitics and you you briefly mentioned that but apart from geopolitics and God forbid and you know skirmishes Wars Etc are there any other risks that we should take on board well at this point I think uh I I I would prefer not not not to uh look at other uh risks so much as the geopolitics I think at this point the geopolitics is the major risk but even maybe some domestic Pol political issues uh you know the US has gotten more partisan uh the Democrats and Republicans don't talk to each other and uh kind of view each other as as as as enemies in some in some cases um I do worry about some uh some some violence occurring as a result of that uh the um wave of uh immigration illegal immigration into Europe and into the United States is something that could create some uh some issues but at this point I think the the most obvious risks are in the geopolitical realm particularly in the Russian continued Russian aggression against Ukraine and of course the the Gaza War uh anded we leave the conversation here for now thank you very much for joining in wish you a happy healthy and a wealthy New Year thank you very much
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