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hello everyone and welcome back well we're certainly at critical points heading into the big friday close and options expiration in the us stocks cryptos and commodities are all heating up and this means that there are a lot of opportunities just around the horizon if the bears managed to bust through to a new low we could see some capitulation but if the bulls can take control at this level there could be a lot of opportunity to the upside as well let's take a look right now at all the key levels this is for the market closed 19th of may 2022 and as you would know starting with the fear and greed index we're in extreme fear we're at a critical options expiration that we will cover off on today and we're also at a point where the markets are about to make a major decision it's an inflection point effectively apple was probably the standout for the last 24 hours it moved down it actually broke underneath our demand zone and closed and it was a story of big stocks like the big tech falling while at the same time the smaller stocks the smaller tech had some nice rips on them we suspected this may be the case when iwm the russell 2000 held up better in the last 24 hours of trade and markets rotated a little bit into the risk on specifically the riskier stocks that have been beaten upwards of 80 to 90 percent it was sell-off rip sell-off rip sell-off ends up pretty much flat for the session and that created some consolidation or a coiling on the smaller time frames that we need to look at very closely because it's going to show us whether the bulls or bears really win out here on this all-important friday close but the other things that occurred was gold gold came good and we suspected that this would occur on the channel that gold was really finding heavy demand and it just ripped through the session so if you were in gold or you're looking at gold you did very well if you were in things like xlp which is consumer staples it didn't do so well and as we mentioned the hyper growth stocks 10 clean energy any of the hyper fin tweet kind of stocks those stocks did very well for the session some of them were upwards of anywhere upwards of nearly 10 percent and a lot of fives and sixes throughout the session now where are we in a market well we're very close to of course technical bear market and you'll notice that when we talk about bear markets they've added a few in here that aren't technical bears but certainly we're going down 19.8 percent 19.4 percent reached in 2011 similar to now in some ways and 2018 obviously a midterm election year these two times were what most bulls hope is happening here on this market we don't go too much further but when we do go further what does that mean well unfortunately bear markets do tend to last around 12 months around a year to 18 months in period time and if we go into some kind of recession here which we could already be in i know a lot of people definitely consider already in a recession which is valid in some ways then we might see a lot more people are starting to talk about 3 400 3500 taking off everything that we put on since the pandemic on the markets i'm not there yet but of course if we break a big low here and we go to a new low on to the weekends that's going to be pretty damn dangerous let's talk about vixen fear where was fear well fear rose it didn't quite get to 35 which has been a big sticking point here for markets and it started falling back off that's due to stabilization remember whenever the market stabilizes or doesn't move too much the fear that is the vix will decline and it was going down through the session a lot of people adding inputs you can see with the pcc huge amount of puts the ratio went back well above one which shows people are fearful could this be wall street st really setting up for a trap and just getting people to put in as many negative positions as possible you'll notice the puts have been quite high here for a considerable amount of weeks as we move into the most important options expiration for the month the third week so pcc quite high put calls pretty damn high there dr copper not too bad in the last 24 hours a lot of people look at copper as economic stability obviously it shows a little bit to do with the economy and builds and demands and we did see it shoot through the roof in terms of the demand coming in after the pandemic it's now sitting in what we could call a wyck-off distribution but it has been finding support at this stage so dr copper pretty good on the last 24 hours and certainly up let's look at the us 10 year as we suspected it started to drop again us tenure looking weak at this stage and that could mean that we've got peak inflation in also if the us tenure does continue to come down that's a good thing for interest rates and all the problems and the main reason this is happening is most likely due to the market fall you're seeing fall in the market obviously that's going to hurt people's feeling towards being rich that's going to kill demands and really this whole year has been precipitated on this supply and demand and i've said this several times the most important thing in supply at the moment is really china's covert policy if they take that away and they say no longer do we lock down we're not going to do that anymore then i think the markets will be given a go signal to actually start buying but at this stage that is the big concern or at least the one that i if i cut through everything that's the one i really think about demands being dealt with by the fed to a degree and also of course the market coming down makes people feel a little bit worse which stunts the actual demand for products and you'll see that throughout anything if you want to go and look at collectible markets right now all are falling a notable one might be watches most people probably aren't into it but for anyone that's been following that set that that particular market some watches grew to five or six times their their list price which is just ridiculous and a lot of those have lost 30 even upwards of 40 percent in the last couple of weeks so a lot of bubbles popping here across multiple different asset classes in court including of course crypto let's talk about dollar index here and you'll notice the dollar index has moved all the way back down we suspected it would and this has been generally good for inflows potentially into the market that's a positive first sign here for the markets this was the key zone of demand that we saw broken the market has since rallied off that area i did suspect we might come back to here we didn't quite get there and then we sold off oh well you know there's other trades to be had around this and we're moving back down the biggest area here is the 10240 now once we get through that you're really changing time frame trends on a lot of time frames so at that point if you breach through here right around this demand area here 10240 you're really saying okay it looks like the dollar has topped for this period and it's been in a giant distribution and that giant distribution is now ready to make its way down and remember if we do have dollar switch that could mean that money is flowing into other assets bonds stocks risk on assets very important we see what happens here with the dollar now a lot of people are reporting on gold all of a sudden they're saying all the hedges here gold's not really a hedge so much as it is a currency but in this case there are a lot of things that are positive towards gold and remember i've said since it comes down to this demand we've talked about this together we've talked about this idea that this level was critical the gold's not out of the woodwork yet it doesn't mean it's going to go up huge huge huge it's about to approach the first real big test for around that 1853 to 1860 zone but there were some nice levels here it's broken the downward trend you guys know i love that kind of thing the anti-technical analysis kind of play and we saw a beautiful pickup off here i was hoping that gold could get back down to around 1800 that was the super demand zone but once we saw this place and it was the double bottom it came back down and just went boom and certainly for day traders this was a pretty good one out of interest is anyone actually trading gold right now let me know in the comments down below i'm always interested to see that and remember if you like any of these things indices and everything else do subscribe because we cover all of these markets on the daily here on the channel and it's awesome to have you guys here as a community let's move over to us oil another one that i've been kind of negative on even though the charts have started to look a little bit more positive in recent weeks there are multitudes of reasons for this but remember we do have the long leg doji up here showing some form of equilibrium in price and also indecision in price and we really have the resistance so that's a big resistance and it's fighting with the the bulls and the bears at this stage if oil breaks back down again which i suspect it may it could really tank all the way back down to the hundred if not even 93 the zone now be careful here in the oil markets i know a lot of people are bullish on it but with the tenure coming down with potentially inflation peaking from that aspect doesn't mean inflation's gone by the way peaking and inflation kind of totally different things we might have just seen the highest level read on it for a little while and you may not believe that but at least that's something that i'm looking at this is very very concerning in terms of there's a lot of volatility here and a lot of powerful forces behind these ones right now natural gas is similar a lot of powerful forces obviously it's now tried twice to break 860 it's coming down and this looks like a market that could be around to tip and actually move back down be careful there tesla as we suspected hasn't really been doing much now tesla is under all sorts of fire right now is it on demand zone yes is 700 a good level theoretically yes it's been a level that many buyers have purchased before and you can see that initial reaction to it was incredibly aggressive it's now come down though twice to these levels and what you'll notice is it's gone lower peaks at this stage so effectively from a ta perspective people will draw through here and they'll say look we're making a series of lower peaks lower highs i think tesla needs to do something for buyers here that's not what i like coming into a buy zone that's showing weakness coming into that level so tesla needs to start knocking off some of these zones this resistance here would be a good one for day traders to be looking at and if that occurs then of course we're breaching that downward trend which allows us to then put pressure on these levels and as we take out these levels you become more confirmed that we've based and at that point you're talking about an accumulation base so i think tesla the next 24 hours probably the next couple of days of trade we should get a bit of an idea but for bears i mean you know what you guys want a close underneath 700 that could be dramatic look at this huge level huge level closes all around there if you get a close underneath that means the power of the bears was strong and that may lead and it's probably going to happen with the rest of the market to some serious falls i could see next stop somewhere around the 640 630 area and possibly a movement all the way down to the 550 for tesla at that stage so be careful here it's the one stock that i feel based on the current market conditions and what's happened over here this is just so unusual these types of swings are not standard for stocks and when that happens off euphoria you start to get a little bit concerned about whether there's a problem here what do you think about tesla though i'm also interested in your comments down below guys apple let's move over to that big close here actually down usually you'd say that's not good at all because this is the the big kahuna was that a max payne that's been caused on apple or does this mean more falls are about to take place i mean basically apple's next huge support other than just being this little bit of resistance potential area which not really usually that strong would be down in this area down here which is around 123.
so if apple starts to tank can the market even hold up with the biggest stock really doing something like that i think that apple is looking shaky i i wouldn't say that this looks strong technically long or anything it looks mostly short so be careful there hopefully it can roll around but you know i don't really like to work on the world of hope in these types of markets another thing is microsoft a lot of people are looking at this you know i love microsoft's my favorite stock in the market i can see why it's coming down obviously it was overpriced in terms of most metrics but it's got a moat like no other and if you're not familiar with moat style investing that's probably my favorite way of figuring out whether you want to hold the stock for a long time how hard is it to get into the business and with microsoft there isn't anything harder it's almost un impenetrable it's got the moat that you could you could siege that castle for about 50 years and probably not get into it so that's why i like microsoft but you can see the big demand level down here and the next 24 hours super important for this one and the rest of the market let's check out the dax how's it going so the dax here a little bit of a rally on the one hour let's take a look at the daily it's it's doing its best to try to hold up as much as it can nice movement around it actually did better than the us market in terms of it came and it filled that gap so remember there was a gap around here this was our area that we were looking for for demand and it bounced off it and just went bang straight back up so strong move here from the dax can it put in another day to get back above as you guys know this is the big area up here that's the huge zone that the dax needs to clear to really start ramping into the next levels but yeah positive looking candle first one in a while and certainly does show that there's that potential for the slingshot trade up but it will be followed by the us market in general let's move over here to iwm let's talk about the russell 2000 and let's just quickly look at this market you can see again held up pretty well considering a lot of other markets are on their lows again but not the russell the small caps holding better and we reported on that last 24 hours check out the top of this box see that area there from the last 24 hours if markets rip again they get through there again day traders they're looking towards that next level so friday could all of this be open here for the friday for iwm it's certainly possible new low unfortunately i could see gap fill at that stage and back down to 169.
i think you'll find the nasdaq and the s p will be leading the way on this speaking of nasdaq pretty poor close here two rip rallies both sold off the second rip was weaker than the first rip markets held the low and what you'll notice is while they were holding the low here they were boxing up they were coiling so this coil now becomes the decision for the next 24 hours and indeed potentially for the next few weeks this zone down here is incredibly big and if you look at it on the futures we go over here to the futures you'll see the long leg doses the futures markets already tested this 11 7 before let's go and look at the one hour here for this so you'll notice that the futures at the time the recording are improving a little bit the only thing that i get out of this that looks a little bit different to the real market and makes me feel slightly more positive is that it had a swing here to the downside that swing then got reversed and it did buy up admittedly it sold twice but it's still holding and it sold back to a level where it's tried to find some demand through here so it is looking a little bit more positive and the market here is turning so hopefully we can get a new high put in the next 24 hours and then move towards that 12-2 zone so 12-2 and possibly even more if this gets underneath that 11 7 zone oh i'm not sure i think if that close happens the bears are in full control and if that occurs you know get ready for capitulation potentially week 8 and that would be pretty bad that would actually put us into so many weeks in a row negative it's it'd be almost the first time in my trading investing career i've ever seen this i think so this would be one two three four five six seven down and i think that's a record for me anyway at that point it's very rare i mean we've done the stats on this we've obviously shown you that six plus weeks down is incredibly rare without a rip rally and at this stage we still haven't seen a rip so imagine if we get a close underneath here not good stats would show that maybe there's one capitulation in it and then of course a big knee-jerk reaction and that could take us all the way down to 11 so be careful here over the next 24 hours so much at stake on those small time frames s p 500 is very similar you can see it closed really pretty neutral trying to hold up as best it can after such a huge fall and if you look at something like the two hour and things look at these candles they're pretty pretty horrendous and this is the real market so each rip was meant by cell demand now if there's sell there and you take out those highs what are you doing all the shorters that were here are getting squeezed so that's where of course that rally comes in so you can see really where the market's going to fight with each other the lows and the highs and everything in here is noise and that's what's going to be happening i think for the friday session us 500 you'll notice here again a tap of those lows almost to the pip futures market action traders would have been like all over that i'm sure going i'm going to try to buy the dip after so much capitulation and we've put in one new high which is again a slight positive here for the market so let's see if we can get that rally going on and maybe a pull-up now we'll talk about options because that could be a big reason why the market may want to pull up max payne for friday sitting at 4 14.
so we suspected it would come down it has and you'll notice a few quite a few options closed at the 400 so the open interest is dropped but the 390 remains incredible 110k 110k at 380. both of these areas huge defense of puts coming into the friday usually obviously not always it's not a guaranteed thing markets try to defend these walls of these huge amounts of puts and hold above them through the session doesn't mean max payne but these levels are usually defended so something interesting there to be looking at as well to add into your analysis bitcoin hovering as we've mentioned 32 is the real buy here in terms of that's where you're starting to to move through this session and we're making lows here holding up as best we can ethereum is very very similar it's a little bit weaker than bitcoin again it's coiling and considering its next move i think it's really waiting for the stock market to make its big one if you haven't already come follow us on twitter at fxevolution and if you enjoyed today's video consider subscribing smash that like button and we're on the road to 100k now and as we said in the future we will be giving away some prizes just to members of the community for helping us out to get there so obviously thanks so much for following thanks so much for subscribing and we appreciate each and every one of you have a great weekend have a great friday and best of luck out there bye for now
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