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Jim Rogers good morning thank you for joining us are you rubbing your eyes Jim with disbelief that crude actually cracked the law below I mean could become zero last evening what do you think the implications of this would be for oil-producing nations for oil producing companies for shale gas producers I'll be staring at a serious bankruptcy coming in for the entire oil supply chain you're already seeing bankruptcies some shale producers in the US have declared bankruptcy and some drilling company so it's happening the kunchi but but last night was an aberration I don't think you'll see another one like that you know the June contract is over 20 in Europe oil is over 20 so don't think that Hoyle is gonna stay at zero it was only one night for one special reason Jim ah when commodities crack it is nothing else but pricing power shifts from commodity producer to commodity consumer are we looking at a new order in the world where the total wealth effect will shift away let's say from oil-producing nations like Russia Saudi Arabia Kuwait Nigeria Venezuela to producing to consuming nations like India and China well new coach this is great you're very perceptive this is good for China it's good for India good for Germany good for Japan it's good for oil consumer yeah it's good for oil consuming nations or producers are suffering now and many other companies companies in those countries as well so for the world yes it's good there will be bankruptcies but couldn't you go out and drive to Mumbai you'll have fun Jim you've been making a point from last couple of years is that central bank will continue to print more money and that will ensure there is liquidity which will take commodity prices higher would you still argue that it's a matter of fine commodity prices will start going higher well yes I mean you see what's happened to gold or gold is making 8 9 your heart so on some commodities have already started being effective oil is collapsing for the special reasons which we've discussed you know the oil in price gas war the war price war between Russia and Saudi and America's shale producers but some things are already starting to go up when I spoke to you mr.
Rodgers five years ago you said that if you want to get rich you need to stack up some sugar in your pocket get a silver spoon and start eating rice with that so in the post covert world if somebody has to make money or get rich what should one do you could go buy sugar I hope you stocked up I hope you brought yourself some sugar buy yourself some rice agricultural products will be going higher especially things we eat because this is having a knock-on effect with farmers farmers everywhere but you should also make sure you have some gold most Indians have some gold most Indians love gold if you don't have some gold be sure you have some gold because before this is over gold is going to go much higher I prefer silver at the moment in fact I am buying silver as we speak but both will do well would you be tempted to relook at equities mr.
Rogers because you're not likely pretties in a long time but after the recent fall and given that things will change in the short term would you be looking at buying equities shipping company yesterday I bought up Chinese wine company so yes I am looking now as we speak you know transportation transportation and tourism has been crushed me where in the world what is your understanding of what will do well and what will not do well in the post covet world well some things that are going to do well are things that have been crushed I mentioned transportation shipping tourism hotels restaurants are all being crushed right now they will recover and do well some of the things that are obviously going to have great progress is medical care over the internet most people never would have tried it but now they're being forced to try it so it's going to accelerate likewise with home delivery most people never would have tried having food delivered at home but now they have to so healthcare delivery food delivery anything like that education my children are out of school but they're doing school on the computer now most people never would have tried it but now they're being forced to try it so all of these things are going to accelerate in the future Jim you know I must I must admit this on national television that I I love reading your books I've read couple of them and some of them couple of times also so let's see if you have to write a book on how can one make money and reboot themselves both in terms of productivity asset allocation in the post corporate world what would be the title of that book how will the book start and how will the book end first of all I want to tell you that it ET is my favorite or certainly one of my favorites in the world whenever I'm in India I watch and I read the newspaper as well so so I'm I'm a fan I'm a fan what you need to do no matter what temp is happening in the world is stay with what you know please do not listen to me or other people you see on the internet or the TV if you want to be successful stay with what you know if I told you you could only have 20 investments in your life you would be very successful you would be careful you wouldn't be jumping in and out you would know what you are doing so my book would say new world stay with what you know and then some of the things that we all will know we all will know about medical care over the internet you know my children we will all know about my children for instance will never go to a post office when they're adults my children may very rarely ever go to a bank when they're adults you're gonna see a lot of empty property banks post offices all over the world so they're going to be great opportunities but only stay with what you know please do not listen even to et stay with what you know the world is changing as I said my children will know go to a bank but they will have money and they will save and they will invest but everything will be on the Internet how does one go about understanding valuations and asset pricing when interest rates are zero interest rates they follow a pattern that's how do you pick up be multiple cyclicals and industrials but when interest rates are zero how does one value prices of assets well I know that that has been a way that some people have valued companies I never pay too much attention to that myself I mean everybody has their own way but what I would suggest that you do find something it doesn't have too much debt it has very good growth prospects I mentioned to you healthcare over the internet for instance now I don't have any names but that is going to be a great way to make money in the future and if you can find the companies that are going to do especially in India it's going to have a great future I know things like that if you can some of the things that in India for instance Indian farmers now can buy and sell commodities over the internet all of these things are new my where I grew up farmers don't barely know what the internet is but in India they're far ahead farmers are far ahead of farmers in other parts of the world so there are new things developing find them if you understand them and get involved Jim you're a market veteran and like you know I just want to share with the viewers that I'm interacting with Jim Rogers for nearly 20 years now and you know when I'm tracted with you Jim in 2000 after the 9/11 crisis you said Agri commodities is the way things would move and it moved that way I agree commodities crude everything went higher when 2008 crisis happened we saw a big resurgence in internet companies the Google's the alphabets the Facebook's of the world they got created so pause this crisis if a boom has to start where do you think it will start apart from healthcare companies well I mentioned education home delivery there new things which are going going to develop there is no question that if you understand technology you can make huge fortunes and there are many Indians many people in India as you know who are very very good at technology find them invest because it's all going to change one way or the other entertainment will be more and more on the internet going forward I am hopeless in technology my 12 year old daughter knows more about the phone than I do I have to go to my daughter and ask her about the phone but many Indians are brilliant at technology find them find them do your homework and invest in them do you think are investing it in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies could be a good idea because everything is becoming digital and that is the new digital for transaction question that money is going to be on the computer it's already happening engine you cannot take a taxi in China with money you cannot take my ice cream in China with money you have to have it on your phone that is happening the Chinese yesterday came out with their own currency on the computer but my point is it's all money's going to be on the computer but it's going to be government money it's not going to be Bitcoin and it's not going to be some of the Kryptos you know in the 1930s you could use anything for money seashells anything cut banks to print their old money the Bank of England came out it said from now on it's an act of treason to use anything for money except our money treason well treason means they execute you as you know so people stopped using them the crypto gods will say listen we're smarter than the government and they are smarter than the government I assure you they're smarter than it but the government has the guns I don't like it I don't like it that the government's gonna have more and more control and knowledge about all of us but the governments have the guns if they say it's an act of treason to use crypto currencies except our crypto currencies you're not gonna do it they're all kind of all governments are going to have their own crypto currencies and they're not gonna let you use anything else if you have to let's say choose one market to invest between India and which way will you lean and your thoughts on why would you lean that way listen I love India I if you if you've read my books you know I always say that India's one of my favourite countries in the world and everybody should visit there at the moment I'm not investing in India I do have some investments in China about a Chinese share yesterday I guess at the moment well actually it's a good question I'd have to start looking I haven't looked at India recently but it must be down a lot and in some Indian companies have great great great futures I have to go and do some homework thank you see if you watch ET you get some good information thank you very much for the endorsement Jim so my next wallet question sir is simple what is the future for oil-producing countries and Nations Saudi Arabia Russia a they now are reaching bankruptcy levels in terms of definite seas and also we know that some of these countries they run a lot of sovereign funds which has got invested into emerging markets and tending to other in you know major startups so I'll be looking at a big change in equilibrium because now the Arabs and the Russians and the cavaties and the Iraqis they will have to you know liquidate some of their investments well Saudi Arabia is certainly got a problem now a huge problem because they have built up debt because they have all those people that they have to support Russia's different Russia is a huge oil producer you're exactly right but Russia has other things Russian agriculture for instance I own shares of Russian agriculture and fertilizer as we speak it's got a great future America put sanctions on Russian Agri on Russia so every morning Russian farmers wake up and say thank you mr.
Trump thank you mister truck Russian agriculture is booming then Russian has metals Russia has other things besides oil and gas so yes they will suffer but there's some parts of Russia that will boom but most oil producers I mean Kuwait cat I mean these places have serious problems going for them mainly because they built up huge cost structure it's very expensive to do anything there because they had so much money for so long you should be very worried I would not rush off to Mexico to make investments like right now or Nigeria but some of the places like India like China like Korea that use a lot of oil this is great for them I mean these guys wake up every morning is cannot believe how lucky they are mr.
Rogers what is the view on the dollar I own a lot of US dollars I own US dollars because in times of trouble turmoil people look for a safe haven now they think this US dollars a safe haven for historic reasons it is not a safe haven u.s. with and why do you own it I own it because people think it is the United States is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world no nation in world history has been this deep in debt and it's getting much worse every day but I own it because people will turn to the US dollar thinking it's a safe haven if they look at the Euro or the British Pound or other currencies they don't see anything work that they think is worth investing in so I own a lot of US dollars what's going to happen it's going to go higher it's going to get overpriced during the turmoil doing the problems it might even turn into a bubble at which point I will have to sell my US Dollars and put them somewhere else maybe gold maybe silver often when the dollar gets very strong gold and silver go down a lot or don't go up a lot so maybe I'll sell my US Dollars and put it in the gold and silver but the US dollar is going to go much higher because people are going to be very scared and they think the US dollar is a safe haven mr.
Rogers one immediate follow-up question which comes to everyone's mind is that you always mentioned that markets they follow a pattern you know it was a Japan in eighties u.s. 90s it came back to China last I knew were dominated by America do you think this coronavirus impact is going to ensure that the US economy remains unity in Spain for next couple of years and other economies will make a comeback well some people are going I said countries for instance that rely on oil such as in which use oil such as India are gonna be in much better shape now you're going to be a shift you're gonna see a serious shift Japan is going to better Japan as many other problems but this is going to help Japan with their problems Germany countries their major countries in the world that are gonna benefit from this and it's going to cause the shift towards those countries the oil producers are going to be in trouble some of them are gonna absolutely collapse the companies will collapse but places like India looks are looking for investments in India Vietnam China Japan Korea these are places that are going to have a bonanza not a bonanza but they're certainly going to have a gift from the fact that oil is that and all it's gonna stay down for a while what's going to happen is always going to make a complicated bottom we will look back in a few years and say oh well in 2000 18 19 20 21 22 oil made its bottom then or will go higher again but in the meantime this is Nirvana for many countries and many companies unexpected by the way completely unexpected if you had said Oni ET a year ago and I didn't but if you have that oil will be $20 a barrel people would have hung up but here it is what could be implications of coronavirus on international traders and relationships trade war do you think now there could be a geopolitical war which could be simmering or I'm getting too too cautious right now know the consequences it's already leaving a bad taste in some people's mouths in America that many people like strongly anti China this is just encouraging them whether they have a sound foundation for being anti China's irrelevant it is increasing the anti Chinese feeling in the US and in some countries so you're going to see mr.
Trump later will come back with his trade war mr. Trump thinks trade wars are good he thinks he can win he does not know history and if he does know history he thinks he's smarter than history but mr. Trump will come back with more trade wars especially against China but also Japan Germany I mean in Mexico everybody mr.
Trump is not gonna blame problems on mr. Trump mr. Trump has never said that he'd made a mistake though he's gonna blame it on other people and the trade was going to get worse but I believe in India I mean he was having a trade war with India too for some strange reason but the countries that have not been devastated by the virus and they can continue to produce and that all produce you consumer zuv oil such as India are going to be in better shape when this is over despite the anti trade or the trade war which will be coming out of America listen I don't like saying any of this I'm an American citizen I hate it but I have to deal with facts not desires that point okay last question so if you've extended our pointment with you you've been very generous with your time today if mr.
Rogers has to identify one long-term structural short they think asset prices will only keep on going lower and lower in coming years what would be that asset market or that trade the United States bond market the United States government bond market
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