저자: BillAckman · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 하워드 휴즈 코퍼레이션(HHC)은 마스터플랜 커뮤니티 자산 가치 대비 주가가 크게 할인되어 있어 매력적인 투자처라는 주장. 배경: 토지개발 사업은 자본집약적·고위험이지만, 대규모 마스터플랜 커뮤니티를 단독 소유하면 장기적으로 큰 가치를 창출할 수 있다고 설명. 돈 브랜넌의 어바인 랜치(약 9만3천 에이커, 1976년 인수) 사례를 예로 듦. 어바인 랜치 사례: 약 3억3,700만 달러 규모 컨소시엄에 참여해 지분을 점차 매입, 현재 개인 100% 소유. 인구 약 25만, 미국 안전한 대도시로 평가. 순자산은 약 150억 달러 이상(Forbes 수치 의문 제기, 300억 달러 이상 추정). 투자 원칙: 단일 소유자 유지, 인프라 선투자 후 후발 진입, 토지 과다 매각 금지, 보수적 재무(비소구 부채 중심), 지역 공급 통제, 장기 관점 유지. HHC 개요: 2008년 GGP 지분 25%를 6,000만 달러에 매입, GGP 파산 후 상장 자회사로 분리. 2011~2012년 우드랜즈·서머린 등 지분 추가 매입. 설립 후 주가 대비 수익률 약 100배 주장. 보유 자산: 서머린(라스베이거스, 약 2.2만 에이커), 우드랜즈(휴스턴, 약 3만 에이커), 브릿지랜드, 콜럼비아, 하와이 워드빌리지(60에이커 해변, 900만 평방피트 승인), 뉴욕 사우스스트리트 씨포트(2018년 개장 예정), 엑슨모빌 본사 인근 오피스 등. 개발 잠재력: 미개발 수직 개발 여지 약 5,000만 평방피트, 워드빌리지 콘도 1,100채(약 86% 분양), 110 노스 워커 대형 오피스(뱅크오브아메리카 약 50만 평방피트 임대 계약). 가치평가: 운영자산(약 2.4억 달러 안정화 자산)을 캡레이트로 할인, 토지 매각 잔여분, 기타 자산 합산 시 기업가치가 주당 약 120달러 수준이라고 제시. 현재 주가는 순자산가치 대비 큰 할인 상태. 리스크·조건: 토지개발은 거시 경기·금리에 민감하고 매각 시기가 불확실. 세제 혜택(NOL, 이연과세)과 법인세율 인하 수혜 언급. CEO 워런트 보유로 경영진 이해관계 일치 강조. 초기 기관 커버리지 부족, 비밀리에 운영된 점을 기회 요인으로 제시. 출연자 전망: 하워드 휴즈 코퍼레이션 장기 보유 및 주가 상승 기대(구체적 목표가 명시 없음, 2017년 Sohn 컨퍼런스 발표, 2018년 12월 게시 영상).
다듬은 글
just a quick little update on the purchase square foundation we're now up to about 400 million in grants since that last fax so we're something we take quite seriously I wanna talk about a business that people think about is a pretty risky business the land development business why is it risky well normally capital-intensive you need to make it a very large upfront investment you can only get recourse leverage it takes time to get zoning you get approvals you're all ready to go with the market changes you have to go forward anyway and your profits are in the last few Lots that you sell so it's a very high-risk business what's interesting is the 27th wealthiest man in America and by the way I think Forbes numbers wrong he's in here for fifteen point two billion dollars this is Donald brand a lot of people never heard of Donald Brennan he's a land developer he basically did one deal or one very very large deal he built a master plan community we took over a master plan community called the Irvine Ranch that's been his life for the last forty years I my guess is his net worth is closer to thirty or more than thirty billion dollars and one way to find a great business is to look in the Forbes 400 and see where people made their money and what's interesting here is he did this this wasn't he got the cycle right been doing it for 40 years that tells you he's been through the best and the worst in real estate a picture on the left is the Irvine Ranch master plan community which he purchased in 1976 40 odd years later it's one of the best places to live in the country and he's done a remarkable job now one of the keys to investing in master-planned communities and land development is you don't wanna be the first guy he stepped in more than a decade after the planning took place he want to be the second owner or perhaps the third owner we want to get in after a large upfront investment has been made the communities established so what is the master plan community it's typically what we describe it is a more than ten thousand acre property it's a piece of raw land that has been designed almost like building a city with a lot of forethought but instead of a traditional government you've got one owner and if you have an owner with a long term approach a lot of very long term value can be created and the key is making sure you have the right assets in the right places we start out bill putting in infrastructure then you start selling some lots and you start building all the amenities necessary to make an attractive place to live and eventually have a fairly remarkable business so the Irvine Ranch is 93 thousand acres is about a fifth of Orange County and he bought it with a group of investors about three hundred thirty seven million dollars a good chunk of that money was borrowed over time he bought out all his partners he owns a hundred percent personally and he was pressured over the many years to sell pieces of the ranch and he refused he retained all of it or effectively all of it it's now got a population of a quarter million people it's considered the safest big city to live in America and it's been a remarkable investment I don't I couldn't figure out what his actual original capital investment here is but he turned a relatively small amount of money as a minority investor in this deal it was less than 30 percent and to at least a 15 billion dollar fortunes what do they do well first he started off with very good real estate location location location certainly applies he bought into an existing master plan community where big investment had already been made he used the increasing value of the land to minimize the equity required so we could avoid having outside partners in fact he was able to to buy out his partners over time he used debt a modest appropriate amount of leverage municipal financing these are basically tax increment bonds where you build infrastructure and new issue municipal bonds to pay for it and he kept his balance sheet conservatively financed he controlled the supply of land so we never dumped land on the market he would only make sure that home bill was bought on enough but not too much and he was careful about not over building and again he controlled the zoning can control the timing the release of land and he was the developer and he took a very long-term view this was going to be his legacy and his guiding principles were number one maintain the land under a single owner because only one person could have this kind of a vision wouldn't have to argue about what to do I think very long term the master plan constantly update the planning continue to reinvest in the land be careful you know land stewardship long term view make every city and the Irvine Ranch an important and happy place to live and just make sound decisions these are basically their principles so actually go back one more slide okay next here we go so he says the problem is he says developing his properties the best possible way is the most important thing in my life I expect to be working well into my 90s and he's approaching his 90s he's not for sale and so the here I am in a conference talking about public investments and you can't invest it's a question is how can you invest along with or at least in the style of Don Brennan and the answer is a public company called the Howard Hughes corporation this is a public company that we formed about six years ago what's interesting about it is it's got five master plan communities around the country with very similar qualities to the Irvine Ranch the Seaport District and so district is the only privately owned district in Manhattan and we're going to talk about that downtown Columbia won't talk about but it's actually the fourth it's ranked fourth in the country in terms of places to live in Houston we own the woodlands and Bridgeland I'm chairman of the board of the Howard Hughes company and Summerlin we have the most valuable real estate a twenty four thousand acre master-planned community and in Hawaii we have an urban master plan community we own 60 acres on the beach with nine million square feet of approvals and like the Irvine Ranch we're coming in not as the first owner but in many cases the third owner or later our oldest master plan community is in Columbia we've got over five million square feet of vertical development to do there all the Lots have been sold that's a 50-year old project the woodlands we still got lots to sell it's 30,000 acres it's twice the size of Manhattan Howard Hughes controls the zoning I call this Sim City but for real Summerlin 22,000 acres of which we own the remaining 4,000 undeveloped acres Bridgeland a lot more to go because it's a younger community the South Street Seaport which is 400,000 square feet of street retail in New York a sixty-five thousand square foot rooftop and Ward village in Hawaii which is 9 million square feet of development so just in terms of history Howard Hughes you think of him as an aviator but he actually apparently made most of his money in real estate well he's inherited a lot but then he invested in real estate he acquired Summerlin and then rouse bought Summerlin and then General Growth bought routes they bought routes for the shopping centers didn't take much interest in these master planned communities we got involved when ggp filed for bankruptcy and that's when we bought out the 50% interest in Summerlin was held by the heirs of Howard Hughes and then Howard Hughes began its existence when we formed the company and spun it out of General Growth just a little bit of history on the company we bought 25 percent of GDP in 2008 for 60 million dollars it filed for bankruptcy in 2000 April 2009 I talked about it at this conference in May of 2009 I think the stock at the time was around $1 we bought out the Hughes heirs the company emerge from Chapter 11 investors made a hundredfold return versus the November 2008 price all the bondholders got their money back we formed a Howard Hughes we spun it off to shareholders and we got backing from Blackstone Brookfield fair home and us in 2011 we bought the 47 half percent of the woodlands that was held by the Morgan Stanley real estate fund again to consolidate ownership in 2012 we bought our Brookfield fair home and Blackstone we then exited ggp and we've retained our stake in Howard Hughes and we've never sold a share we never talked publicly about the company so the question is why are we talking about it now the answer is I think this is one of the most attractive times in the history of the company to invest the stock trades at one of the widest discrepancies between the underlying net asset value and we have a much better understanding of the business and the business has had a huge head start over the last six years so if you look at the everybody ranch principles we've adopted them sole owner and Howard Hughes thoughtful master plan continual reinvestment tool and minimizing third party equity in fact buying out our partners long term approach judiciously selling land but not dumping land on the market and being an appropriate long-term steward we've got a conservative balance sheet we stopped selling commercial land when this was when owned by others DGP they would sell off land basically to pay debt service we stopped land sales in fact we started buying out parts of the npc's we didn't control because we understood that once you get to a certain tipping point the commercial development opportunity becomes large once you get beyond certain population you can start building vertically and we control effectively all of the commercial and residential vacant land and we control the zoning and when you own these assets in the later stages of master plan community you can build enormous value and it's a business with a virtuous cycle so you start by selling lots of home builders that brings in a population that creates demand for shopping centers office buildings you build the buildings they generate cash flows and so on and so forth that makes it a more appealing place to live you can sell breath central lots at a higher price and the cycle continues we gave a few examples of the embassies that are owned by Howard Hughes The Woodlands for anyone has been to Texas it's one of the most doesn't consider the most desirable place to live in Houston it's a city as I mentioned twice the size of Manhattan we own the vacant land we control the zoning we control the timing of supply 115,000 residents ranked as the best place to live in Texas the six best place to live in the country Exxon Mobil just moved their corporate campus very close to the woodlands of five million square foot campus and in fact we we did a build a suit for Exxon in the property perfect example we saw this nice piece of vacant land we said what should we do there we came up with an idea fast forward in two and a half years we built a million half square feet of space leased it up and are generating you know ultimately 50 million dollars of net operating income from this property unlike a REIT that has to buy land or buy buildings we have an enormous amount of internal development opportunities there's more than 50 million square feet of unbuilt vertical opportunity inside this company this is Summerlin you get a sense of the scale of this community again about one and a half times the size of Manhattan this is Las Vegas it's nine miles from the strip that's 25 years old the most attractive place to live in Las Vegas she's an irreplaceable asset you could not create today we did a deal with Discovery people no discovered land we're sling land in the desert 77 Lots for 250 million dollars you can do the math a four million dollar Lots in the desert gives you an idea of how valuable a master plan community is and the remaining land in that community we kept the commercial land so we didn't sell it to others we built out the community around it the best way to see that is by going to this picture so all that surrounding property and development those are the households and we saved to the end the commercial property you build the commercial property obviously once you have that kind of density becomes enormous ly valuable it's you think about real estate typically you build a building if you do a great job you help all your neighbors around you make their properties more valuable here we own all the property and therefore we get the benefit for the company that's what downtown summer looked like in 2010 and this is what it looks like today it's aspect of the Summerlin a much more attractive place to live because it's got an attractive downtown that of course enables us to sell lots at higher prices that increases the density that improves the retail sales which means we can increase rents that's pretty interesting business and the overall approach is continue to sell Lots we're building the population these various communities stabilize the existing assets these are office buildings retail shopping centers you know apartments that we built and then build new ones we've got 50 million square feet of development inside this company vast majority of this land is unlevered no debt on it 37 million are within the four walls of our master plan community we're going to finish the South Street Seaport and we'll talk about that in a second we're deliver more condo towers in Hawaii the question is what's this business worth so the problem here is if you were to take a look at the financial statements for the Irvine Ranch you'd be hard to make heads or tails of it this is a development business there's a huge amount of depreciation there's a lot of capital going in you know gap accounting you know kind of it's just not a good way to think about the business looking at short term cash flows they're incredibly volatile based on this quarters land sales that doesn't really tell you much Book value is not a reflection of long-term asset value and so we think the best approach is what I would call a back-of-the-envelope approach it's certainly one that I can do in 15 minutes in front of a group so the easiest thing to value is we've got you know operating assets these are recently constructed assets that are in various stages of Lissa about two hundred forty million dollars have stabilized and why you can assign a cap rate or we believe they'll be at this level in two years discount back those cash flows now what's interesting is because these assets are largely within master plan communities and we control the supply this is much less risky real estate so risk of someone the problem with many real estate deals is in one market you need one more apartment building and then you got four developers who build one more apartment building at the same time here we can control and prevent that problem happening so the cap rate that you would use the value of these assets is meaningfully lower if you think about the residential land a lot of people think of land development is a risky business but when you're selling the remaining Lots and an established community it's a certainty that those Lots will be sold the macro factors will have some impact in terms of the exact timing of the sale but you know you're gonna sell them and generally we've been able to those assets appreciate at a rate similar to where we think you should discount those cash flows because of the high certainty so you can actually look at today's values to assess a value for those assets and then we have a bunch of other stuff so an asset 110 north wacker was the old headquarters for DGP we're building a 1.3 5,000,000 square foot office building we just signed a lease with Bank of America to take a half million square feet and it goes on and I got to accelerate because I'm running out of time so we think the operating assets that's the stabilized or the approaching stabilized income producing assets the residential land those lots that will be sold over time any list of other assets including 110 north wacker is about equal to the enterprise value of the company and the per share value of the business 120 odd dollars a share so what else do you get for your money well you get this this is the new South Street Seaport if you go downtown it actually looks like this today it's not open yet it's gonna open in 2018 but this is 400,000 square feet about 170 thousand square feet in the pier the next building over is what's called the 10 building a 50,000 square foot building plus all that other land you know to the west is part of this asset and this isn't going to be a spectacular place to to work to entertain to have fun to go to concerts the roof deck holds 4,000 people for now to a concert John George is opening up the equivalent of Harrods marketplace in this location and this is one of the most valuable pieces of real estate I've seen in my career it's going to open in a year you get it for free you also get this this is 60 acres in Hawaii at the beach with an approval for over nine million square feet of new buildings and in fact we've made a lot of progress we built almost 1,100 condominiums actually we've sold 1,100 or about 86 percent sold and we're building a new development again only as needed there's no pressure but we only build until we see the demand this is what it looks like last year here's one of the completed buildings and it goes on next that's that's what it looks like fully built out and again once you build a whole bunch of high-rise condominiums of course it makes the retail the street retail more valuable the most valuable or one of the most valuable shopping centers in the country is located less than a half a mile from the project it's called the Ala Moana Shopping Center it's worth recently was sold a half an interest was sold for a couple billion dollars and we own a similarly sized retail opportunity in this location what else do you get for your money you got 37 million square feet of development in the npc's that has yet to be built and these are projects in which we expect to earn a high return how can you get a sense of that we've built almost 4 million square feet over the last six years Noi of about 144 million about a 9% return on cost these assets we think are you know five six percent type assets you know and you know the opportunity going forward is about 10x that you get that for free then you said what about taxes what's interesting is this is a very tax efficient business for the most part you know depreciation interest expense we've had the benefit of significant NOLs we have some high basis assets the nature of land development allows you to defer taxation and we're course a beneficiary of a reduction in tax rates our balance sheet is almost entirely non-recourse we limit the amount of recourse debt that we have or about two thirds non-recourse we got a great management team and the seat and the CEO is compensated in a bit of an unusual way when we spun the company to shareholders he invested fifteen million dollars in six year warrants he couldn't sell until the fifth year he still owns him they expire in November obviously his incentive is to see a higher share price but he's going to reinvest 50 million dollars in new warrants when he sells the old warrants and retained 50 million of common stock from the exercise of those warrants so our CEO certainly believes as do other members of the management and with that I'm going to tell you how you can learn more we kept the company kind of as a secret we would have very little in the way of analyst coverage we had our first earnings call in the first quarter we're gonna have our first investor day and if you want to come it's very soon so thank you very much
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