저자: RayDalio · 외국인
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결론: 레이 달리오는 중국의 자본시장 개방과 구조 변화를 긍정적으로 평가하며, 유럽과 미국의 경기 사이클도 큰 위험보다는 금리 정상화 과정의 정교한 관리가 핵심이라고 본다. [중국] 1984년부터 중국을 오가며 자본시장 발전을 지켜봤고, 1989년 최초 주식시장 설립 과정을 언급하며 제도 발전을 높이 평가함. 중국 경제의 혁신·기업가정신·규모를 강조하며 단기 문제(레버리지, 국영기업 비중 확대 등)는 과도하게 주목받는다고 봄. 중국 부채는 대부분 자국 통화 표시이고 비율도 미국보다 낮아 위험이 제한적이라고 판단하며, 지방정부 부채와 일부 금융 부문 문제는 인정하되 정부의 선제적 대응을 긍정 평가함. 중국 정부가 외국 투자자 개방 폭과 속도를 결정할 것이고, 외국 운용사에도 기회가 있다고 봄(자동차 산업처럼 세계 최고 기준 기업을 들여오는 방식을 예로 듦). [유럽] 유럽은 ECB(드라기)의 위기 대응이 칭찬받을 만하며, 최악의 부채 위기를 지나 디레버리징이 잘 진행됐다고 평가함. 성장률은 플러스로 개선 중이고 부채 위기도 과거보다 진정됨. 인플레이션은 목표 2%를 향해 가는 중이라 큰 문제가 아니라고 봄. 정치 리스크는 존재하지만 최근 20년 어느 때보다 작다고 판단하며, 핵심 과제는 성장 지속을 통한 빈부 격차 등 정치적 긴장 완화라고 주장함. [미국·글로벌 금리] 물가를 우려하기보다 2% 달성조차 어려운 상황이라 인플레이션 과열은 걱정하지 않음. 현재 경기 사이클은 '골디락스' 구간을 지나 후반부로 진입 중이며, 중앙은행이 금리 인상과 대차대조표 축소 속도를 정확히 맞추는 것이 관건이라고 봄. 미국은 금리 인상과 대차대조표 축소가 상대적으로 앞서 있고, 유럽은 양적완화 축소가 뒤따르는 구조. 감세안 등으로 2년 뒤 미국 경기 부양이 더 강해지면 중앙은행이 정책 타이밍을 맞추기 어려워질 수 있다고 봄. 연준의 올해 3회 인상 신호에 대해서는 정확한 횟수는 예측하기 어렵고, 시장 기대(약 3~4회)를 크게 앞서지만 않으면 문제는 크지 않다고 언급. [경영 철학] 책 『Principles』의 방식(급진적 투명성, 아이디어 메리토크라시, 사려 깊은 의견 충돌)을 일부 기업, 특히 실리콘밸리형 기업들이 검토 중이라고 언급하며, 모든 기업에 맞지는 않는다고 봄. 독립적 사고와 스트레스 테스트를 통해 틀린 믿음을 걸러내는 것이 성공에 유리하다고 강조. [조건/리스크] 중국 개방 속도와 정책 결정, 유럽의 성장 지속 여부, 미국 금리 인상 속도가 시장 기대를 크게 상회할 경우가 핵심 리스크로 제시됨. [출연자 전망] 개별 종목 언급 없음. 중국 자본시장 장기 긍정, 유럽 중립~긍정, 미국은 금리 정상화 과정 중 중립적 경계.
다듬은 글
you spend a lot of time in China you hear originally in 1984 ray what are you seeing in terms of the opportunities now given the changes that have been underway in the capital markets in the economy here in China well there's you know terrific opening up and of the capital markets and a lot more liquidity you know generally speaking these are second largest markets in the world and they're opening up for investment and so I'm very excited about that it's particularly exciting to me because as you mentioned I came started coming in 1984 and I can tell you that I've watched and been part of that evolution in 1989 I remember an organization that was put together by seven companies to develop a stock market the first stock market in China and it was in a dingy hotel room and these seven people put together the first development of the stock market and I've watched the development of their skills their organizations financial institutions and it's been a pleasure because that's developed in much the same way as the whole economies developed so there's a modernization there's an energy here that's terrific so I'm excited be part of it we flagged the concerns around and suggest and point to the fact that in terms of reforms there'd been some step back so whether that's you and liberalization or capsule controls that we opposed or the greater role of the SOE ease here how do you square that with other advances that are taking place in China how do you read I I think that first of all I think people put too much emphasis on the short term problems like ever since I was here there was always reasons not to believe the success okay so now look at the force behind that success when I was here I remember being a guest in 1984 of siddik it's a 16-story office building and I would look outside and they and there will hutongs hutongs were just the little neighborhoods and I said with the opening up there was going to be the capital markets coming in and there's going to be buildings and everything and so if you look at the path over there there's just too much emphasis on that and I think what you're probably referring to is maybe the the leveraging process maybe that's the issue but when I look at the state-owned enterprises it used to be five or six banks would lend money all to state-owned enterprises and there was no small and medium-sized enterprise capital markets since then about a third of the lending is coming from new capital markets and so there's access to capital for small businesses to grow and so on a new savings visit if I look at the links then the Hong Kong direct and I look at the free economic zones and all of that development the development of CDs markets or bond markets and all of that development there's been wonderful development so I think it's important not to view it in this westernized perspective of some of these things it's been anyway very very effective and if we're talking about something like the issue of the de leveraging I mean I've watched many countries go through the the leveraging x' and manage that size and scale with china faces oh well no i first of all if you look at if you look at debt problems of countries the most important issue is whether they have a debt denominated in their own currency whether they have a debt denominated in a foreign currency then you look at how sizable the debt is so the the debt ratios here are not as bad as the debt ratios their debt ratios are less than our debt ratios and also it's denominated in their local currency so now you have to go to the segments of the debt there is a local government debt issue and then there are certain parts of the system in which there's issues to be dealt with there's a forthrightness in looking at that I have conversations I could say that the understanding of those issues and the being very forthright and bring up the deleveraging so I would say isn't this admirable by comparison to what we experienced in the 2008 financial crisis in other words you didn't get a heads-up from the government that said now we're going to manage edy leveraging you had 10 years ago you had a financial crisis in which they went into it and then they're in a reactive mode this is a proactive mode of something that becomes manageable so and and if you take a debt any debt crisis even the worst kind of debt crisis it comes and goes 2008 financial crisis in US was dealt with with monetary and certain fiscal policies and and changes and so on and then there's 2009 and since 2009 we had a big bull market as a result of that these things the financial crisis is of store they come and go they're short term things you have to look at the innovation you have to look at the capabilities they're unleashing an economy that has innovation there's entrepreneurship that is existing here that never did exist here the vitality is a terrific place so look beyond these things or ask yourself whether they could be well managed and also look at the capabilities of the people somebody like Lula is a very capable person so I think that those are the things that matter most in terms of picking a good place there are opportunities for the fund management industry in China given the changes and the Rockies I think the Chinese government will determine how welcome outside investors are and as they open up you know we will be there and others will be there about my sense is that they'll be a broad opening up because they also want to bring in the skill sets you know one of the great developments in China is to bring in the best world-class standards if you want to build an automobile industry you bring in General Motors and you bring in the best automobile companies to help to bring about world-class standards because financial reform is such an important thing it be part of a process to bring in the you know the best in the world to try to bring in the best practices switching focus to Europe how do you view the climate in Europe are you concerned for example about political risk in the region whether it's Italian elections or on the macro level the ECB's handling of their unwinding their balance shot how'd you view that the picture Europe I think that there's today and there is what it used to be and with the the ECB and Mario Draghi should be congratulated and thanked for taking it through the crisis there's always a debate as to what the best processes are are did you print money and the Germans argue with the Italians and so on and now look at it okay we have been through the worst debt crisis we have had what I call a beautiful deleveraging we're now where that crisis is is as long as it behind us and we're now in a situation where growth is improving oh of course it could always be better you can have more structural reforms but there have been quite a bit of structural reforms and so we're in a situation and with which growth is positive the debt crisis azar not as corrupt as difficult than by any means as they were and we're not having an inflation problem the inflation is to get it up to 2% and that's a struggle if that's a big problem it's not a big problem the issue of course still has to do with keeping this expansion going because if you talk about the political issue then there's the challenge between the haves and the have-nots and this is a worldwide challenge and so you must not have an economic slide back because if you have an economic slide back that's where the real political problems are that's where the challenges are so I'm not worried about too much inflation in Europe okay and I'm not worried about that and I think that we're on a good track and of course there will be the political issues there are always the political issues but put that in perspective they're much less than they have ever than in the last I don't know 20 years and you are just sticking to inflation are you concerned should we be concerned should investors be concerned about inflation in the US and how difficult is the job gonna be for the new Fed Chairman I think it's I think it's so funny you know when I hear your question you should be concerned about inflation I'd ask you what because it's too low or because it's too hot okay you know that's isn't that a funny question because there's a lot of concern that it was too low should we be concerned that it's too high I don't think we should be concerned that it's too high we're still struggling to get it to 2% if you get two and a half percent inflation you know is that a problem I don't think we're gonna hit two and a half percent inflation for a core inflation right but is that a problem in Europe is it a problem that there's too much inflation or too little inflation I don't know you never get it perfect but it's pretty good you know so no I'm not particularly concerned what I am concerned about is as we go into the later parts of these cycles the challenge of central banks will be to get it perfectly right because we're in the late in in the United States we're in a later part of the cycle in both of the world we're in the Goldilocks part of the cycle when it's not too hot and it's not too cold right when we have growth and we don't have an inflation problem that's the beautiful part of the cycle okay as we're moving from that beautiful part of the cycle to a little bit later in the cycle as we're moving then there's that part in which the brakes start to get put on at different paces in the United States we're a little bit farther ahead so we're going to have faster rate of interest rate increases and letting the balance sheets go off in Europe we're a little bit behind that and so as a result you'll have a winding down of quantitative easing and not as much movement on the interest rates so that's where we are in Europe that's where we are in the United States and so the issues I don't think are particularly pressing now I knew think that if we were to roll the camera forward to two years from now and that we're having enough a lot more let's say stimulation particularly in the United States we're having a lot more stimulation because of the tax bill and also because liquid is relatively plugged so we're going to be in a part where the central banks will have a problem getting it right I think a year or two from now and the Fed is signaled obviously three rate hikes this year Goldman is saying for where would you say the right number is oh I couldn't tell you what the right number is it depends how things transpire I know it becomes delicate and the important thing is well nothing is precise and as we start to pick up we'll figure out whether that it's three or two or four and you know get that right I do know that it has to be careful that it's not much faster than it's discounted in the curve and right now you know that's you say it's between 3 & 4 which is discounting the curve and if they stick to that kind of pace I don't think it would be particularly problematic as touching your book have any companies taken on the principles you've written the book principles life and work have any pension funds of any companies adopted adopted your principles that you've laid out there there's a number of companies I won't mention the names of them that are now examining them I should say and tending to be more cutting edge more Silicon Valley type of companies tending to be more entrepreneurial type of companies and well you know we'll see how that that happens implementing that transparency works and some companies but it's not going to work in every company the radical transparency you talk about the kind of radical transparency you have a bridge rules well let's let's stop and take a look at this ok nobody in their heads has all the right answers right there's a range of thinking we all think differently and to be able to have an idea meritocracy in which people can be very straightforward with each other and then together work on finding out what's true by understanding the art of thoughtful disagreement is very powerful because in order to be successful in the markets or in order to be successful as an entrepreneur you have to be an independent thinker because the consensus is built into the price and the markets so you have to be an independent thinker and be right and that's true as an entrepreneur you have to be an independent thinker and be right and you don't know if you're right and the greatest risk is that the great at one of the greatest tragedies of man is people holding in their heads wrong opinions that they're confident about and they don't put out and stress test them so what am I talking about what's the problem of being radically truthful and radically transparent with each other it may be uncomfortable for some people then I say get used to it because it's effective so what's the problem with being radically truthful and radically transparent and to bring in the best ideas for independent thinking it improves the probabilities of being right
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