저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: 짐 로저스는 중국과 북한의 장기 투자 잠재력을 낙관하지만, 미국 달러는 안전자산 수요로 단기 상승 후 과열 가능성을 언급하며 금은 하락 시 매수 대상으로 본다. 북한 투자: 장기적으로 매우 낙관적이나 미국인은 북한 투자가 불법이라 직접 투자는 못 한다고 밝힘. 중국: 21세기 가장 중요한 국가가 될 것이며 많은 문제가 있겠지만 장기적으로 강국이 될 것이라 봄. 달러와 금: 미국 달러가 안전자산 수요로 상승 후 과열 또는 버블 가능성이 있고, 이때 달러를 팔고 하락 시 금을 살 계획이라고 함. 2010년 이후 금은 사지 않았으나 보유 중이고 판매하지 않았다고 함. 아연 등 원자재: 아연은 8월 저점 대비 20% 이상 올라 지금 매수하지 않으며, 설탕 등 농산물처럼 많이 떨어진 원자재를 찾는 것이 원칙이라고 함. 농산물은 저평가 상태이며 반등 가능성 언급. 전기차 관련 원자재: 리튬, 코발트는 공개시장 선물이 없어 직접 투자가 어렵다고 설명. 대마(칸나비스): 시장이 계속 커질 것이라며 매우 관심 있다고 함. 다만 개인적으로는 콜롬비아 비상장 회사에만 투자 중이고 공개주식은 없다고 함. 암호화폐: 비트코인 등 모든 암호화폐는 결국 0으로 수렴해 사라질 것이라며 투자하지 않았다고 함. 블록체인에는 관심이 있으나 유망한 소형사를 찾지 못했다고 밝힘. 미국 경제 리스크: 워싱턴(중앙은행, 대통령, 의회)이 문제이며 금리가 역사상 최저 수준이고 부채가 급증해 큰 대가를 치를 것이라 경고. 트럼프가 부채를 줄이겠다고 했지만 오히려 늘었다고 비판. 미국 증시: 미국 주식보다 원자재가 더 매력적이라고 함. 미국 달러 패권이 장기적으로 약화될 것이라는 기존 견해를 유지. 최종 추천: 러시아 루블 표시 채권, 북한을 최고 아이디어로 꼽았으나 미국인이라 투자 불가. 러시아에는 지난주에도 추가 매수했다고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
the summit between President Trump and North Korean leader Kim jong-un came to an abrupt end in Hanoi Vietnam this after talks broke down marking a major setback in diplomacy between the two countries my next guest however is optimistic about the long term investment opportunities in North Korea I'm pleased to say that I'm joined by legendary investor and chairman of Roger Holdings Jim Rogers from Singapore Jim thanks so much for sparing some of your time for us today let's start with that North Korea because when we spoke last June you were pretty optimistic about the investment potential is that still your view and if so have you managed to make any headway at all no it's still very very optimistic about the United Korea it's illegal for Americans to invest in North Korea right now so no I haven't done anything I don't want to be rich and in jail I'd rather be pouring out of jail so you know I'm a citizen of the land of the free Victoria we're not very free but that's what they say so you are a US citizen but you've been living in Asia for over a decade right now so are you still bullish on China and what's catching your eye out there in terms of trades or investments well China is going to be the most important country in the 21st century but Victoria there'll be plenty of setbacks America was the most successful country in the 20th century but along the way we had 15 depressions with a D we had a horrible Civil War had very little rule of law we had massacres in the streets you know we were a mess we were a huge mess but we did well China's going to have many many problems but it will be the country of the 21st century so you're a veteran commodities investor and the author of hot commodities of course so I wanted to get your expertise on gold because you said that the next bear market is likely to be the worst of our lifetime so with that in mind are you accumulating Long's in the safe-haven I own US dollars as my safe haven you might well say what are you talking about the US dollars the u.s.
is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world and it is but I haven't bought any serious gold since 2010 I own gold I haven't sold any but at the moment for historic reasons US dollar is more likely to be the safe haven what will happen what often happens dollar will go up and go up a lot go will go down and I will very cleverly sell my dollars at the top and buy gold at the bottom you see how easy it is Victoria I just got rich here in 30 seconds so let's see if we can apply that logic to the base metals complex then because zinc has had a pretty impressive rally up by more than 20 percent since the August lows I know you like to buy when everyone else is selling and selling when everyone else is buying so where do you stand on zinc right now you bullish well I'm more bullish on commodities than I am on American stocks for instance so the answer is overall yes but what I rush in and buy zinc today no of course not it's up 20% since August as you point out but what I like to do is find the commodities that are down the most and start looking there rather than ones are up the most and start looking there so what kind of Conroe disease are you talking about then well agriculture obviously you know sugars down 80 percent from its all-time high I mean it's not much unlike this down to 80 percent over the last few decades many can agricultural commodities are still very cheap agriculture has been a disaster for farmers everywhere it's going to turn so let's look to the future now because we're in the middle of this electric car revolution that's creating a major shift in demand and supply in commodities for things like lithium and Cobalt so is that kind of thematic investment that you're looking at and how's the best way to play it if it is well yes the problem with those two that you mentioned are that there's no public market I mean you know there's plenty of futures in zinc and copper there's not futures in lithium and cobalt so you have to be the by mines or by the stuff itself which is not so easy for most people including me I don't I had an interest in a company which had lithium lithium mines but at the moment I have nothing so another emerging commodity which has been garnering a lot of interest recently is cannabis through stocks like canopy growth and Chronos group is that something you'd be particularly interested in especially if it eventually becomes a tradable future I'm extremely interested in cannabis it's going to be a huge it already is a huge market it's going to get bigger and bigger you know something like 90% of Americans can now buy cannabis legally all of Canadians Colombians you know many people more and more people are becoming eligible to buy cannabis it's going to be a great a great investment if you find the right companies and the right prices so are there any companies that you've been particularly looking at or any ways to invest in this team well I have a private company in Colombia which I I'm an investor but I don't have any public stocks not at the moment I wish I did we all wish we did so let's talk about crypto currencies because you know I know you're a buyer and everyone else is a seller so given that Bitcoin and the others have fallen so far out of favor is that a space that's getting your attention at all no Victoria they're all going to go to zero and disappear so I'm not a player with the crypto currencies I wish I had been it's one of those things went up a lot still is up a lot but I have never bought or sold any of them in my view they're all going to zero and disappear so you're bearish on kryptos but I know you're bullish on the blockchain so are you invested there and what's the best way to get exposure to that investment Victoria I wish I knew I have been looking I mean you know Alibaba was in blockchain but who cares iBM is in blockchain but who cares I have not found the small or medium size company which is going to make a fortune in blockchain if you know one Victoria please do not say it on this show I would love to find that even two or three but I have not yet I'm looking to the investment advice from you not the other way around but so you're living in Singapore but you're a US citizen so let's get your view on your home market and what are some of the biggest risks to the US economy Washington DC not some of the the risk for the American market the central bank the president the Congress every mean everybody in Washington has no clue and they're gonna be the ruination of all of us they've driven interest rates to the lowest in recorded history they don't know what they're doing and and we're all going to pay the price for it you know it's just right so interest rates are absurdly low it never been this low in history we're gonna pay a serious price so there's a couple of things you mentioned there firstly was the central bank side the monetary policy side and also then there was the political side so which side are you talking about both I mean the the in the last year the central bank I'm sorry the central government's debt has gone up more than in reentry in recorded history well not in recorded in history in America or any other country debt is skyrocketing Donald Trump sat down and swore to us in 2016 that he was going to reduce the debt to nothing in eight years well you see what's happening in two years he sent it up more than any other president that's right the debt is going higher and higher it's Congress and the executive branch at the same time the central bank has driven interest rates to the lowest in recorded history they don't know what they're doing now they've had a terror they got scared and they cut back so now they're gonna know what they're doing so you steering clear of the US market I know you said that you're long US dollars but I believe you understand what I believe that you've said in the past that you think it's going to ultimately lose its global dominance is that still your view yes yes yes so the u.s.
is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world and the debts are going higher and higher every day what I expect to happen is as the terminal comes and more and more people buy US dollars as a safe haven it will get overpriced it might even turn into a bubble depending on how bad the turmoil is I hope I'm smart enough to sell it if it becomes a bubble so what are your thoughts on Trump comments over the weekend saying that the dollar is overvalued it doesn't matter what I say or what mr.
Trump says the market in my view is going to take the dollar higher for the reasons I said we need a safe haven the euro is not a safe haven anymore even the yen is very suspect Swiss francs of course is going to be a disaster the next time around British Pound mean there's no alternative at the moment which just makes a dollar even more tempting to people looking for a safe haven there's gold that not going to mention in there well as I said the dollar is gonna get overpriced I often when the dollar goes up a lot go goes down and often in big market collapses gold goes down go back and look you'll see all gold nearly always goes down when markets collapse I'm gonna sell my dollars at the top and buy gold at the bottom so very finally what's your top investment idea right now oh gosh I don't let's see maybe Russian bonds in rubles certainly North Korea but I cannot invest there because I'm gonna make I'm a citizen of the land of the free I would say probably probably North Korea at the moment a lot of people investing there is you probably know I mean the Chinese the Russians they're pouring in there unfortunately I cannot so you still invested in Russia then oh yes yes yes yes I bought more Russia last week what is yeah last week Jim thank you so much for your time today I'm delighted Victoria let's do it again sometime let's do that thank you Jim Rogers chairman of Roger Holdings joining us from Singapore I'm Victoria scholar and thank you very much for watching IG TV will see very soon you
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