저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: 신흥국 통화위기는 진행 중이며 바닥까지 약 2/3 진행, 미국은 약 2년 후 정치·사회적 위기를 동반한 달러 위기 가능성이 있다. [신흥국 인플레이션성 불황] 터키·아르헨티나 등은 외화표시 부채 부담으로 통화가 급락하는 전형적 과정 중이며, 1994 페소위기·97 아시아위기·98 러시아 디폴트·2001 아르헨 디폴트와 유사하다. 통화 약세가 수출·수입 균형을 개선하고 자본을 끌어들이기 전까지 바닥은 아직 아니며, 대략 2/3 정도 진행됐다고 본다. 바닥은 재정적자 화폐화 방식, IMF 지원, 통화긴축에 따른 실질금리 설정에 따라 결정된다. [투자 시사점] 역사적으로 '피가 거리에 흐를 때' 매수 기회가 있으나, 가치 판단은 패닉의 정도로 가늠한다. 현재 패닉은 더 나올 여지가 있다는 취지. [미국 경기 전망] 현재는 2008년 같은 급격한 디레버리징보다는 제로금리 이후 1935~1940년과 유사한 구조. 포퓰리즘과 부의 격차가 사회·정치 갈등을 키울 것. 금리를 낮출 여력과 양적완화 효과가 제한되어 다음 하락기 통화정책 효과가 약할 것. 연금·의료·부채 등 미적립 의무와 해외에 대한 미국채 매도 부담이 문제가 되며, 약 2년 후가 우려 시점이라고 함. 달러는 30% 절하도 가능하다고 언급, 금리 상승 시 신용 위축과 경기 약화 우려. [반론] 트럼프 감세와 재정부양으로 성장이 가속되어 침체가 수년 뒤일 수 있다는 시각에 대해, 현 재정부양은 가동률이 높은 시점의 자극이며 약 18~24개월 후 효과가 약해진다고 반박. [시장 사이클] 현재 사이클 9년차, 게임으로 치면 7회 말 정도로 보며 당장은 크게 걱정하지 않지만 9회 말에는 대응이 필요하다고 봄. [투자자 조언] 일반 투자자는 적극적 시장 타이밍을 피하는 것이 바람직하며, 경기 사이클과 무관하게 균형 잡힌 포트폴리오를 구축하는 것이 핵심이라고 강조. [출연자 전망 요약] 신흥국 통화 추가 하락 가능, 미국은 약 2년 후 하락기와 달러·사회 위기 우려, 당장의 과열은 아니나 장기 리스크 존재.
다듬은 글
you have a new book out a template for understanding big debt crises and Ray to me the underlying message of this book is that history is doomed to repeat itself have I got that right yeah the everything happens over and over again for similar cause-effect relationships right so that mean that that sounds like an awfully depressing reality does it does it does it need to be depressing reality well I mean it's like any reality you know you've got to embrace the reality and know how to deal with it you yeah there are debt cycles and debt cycles provide great opportunities and they provide real problems so I think it's just like a progression of disease that progresses and the reason I wrote the book is actually was just a compendium of research that I wrote mostly before the financial crisis and it's because I think it's essential for everybody to understand the sequence of events the logical sequence of events that makes these all the same so as you know there's 48 of them in there they all play out pretty much the same way except they're an inflationary and deflationary ones depending on the currency but basically I'm in 60 pages I just want to convey that template so let's talk about one of those two types of debt crises the inflationary depression mm-hm is that what's playing out right now in Turkey in Argentina in emerging markets more broadly yeah certainly and this is all played out many times that isn't the first time that Argentina has gone through it and as a habit of going through it and it's not the first time it's happening anywhere else so you could follow it I mean basically the big deal is whether the currency is denominated the debt is denominated in your own currency or in your foreign currency and when it's denominated in foreign currency like these countries have a lot of dollars and nominated debt then that they have a problem trying to service that dollar denominated yet when the dollar goes up and the money they're earning is in local currency then they don't have enough cash and then they get into that spiral and as a result of that they have to print more money the currency depreciates and it happens in a very mechanical way most of the countries don't have reserve currencies don't have the debt denominated in their own currency and as a result most of their crisis's are of that sort and there's a dynamic as to how they complete the cycle in other words what happens is when the currency goes down in value essentially because of inflation and alike they wipe out the local currency debt if you own the local currency debt you're wiped out you've evaluated 27 of these non domestic currency crises in the book so take what's happening today in Argentina Turkey and like I say emerging markets more broadly and compare it if you would to some of the things that we might remember there are some people were old enough to recall the peso crisis of 1994 the Asian currency crisis of 97 or perhaps the Russian debt default 98 or the Argentine default of 2001 this looks most like what to you well it looks like that but it looks like those because the currency depreciation then also raises the interest rate differential and in the process of wiping out the local currency denominated debt because it's essentially monetized a way the currency becomes cheaper all the crisis's are self-correcting mechanisms so when the currency becomes cheaper then it becomes more the balance of payments improves because they can sell more or they import less and also they begin to attract capital if they remain a healthy place for people to invest that's not that's not happy just haven't hit bottom have they no but they're I would say two thirds on the way toward hitting bottom I believe and then what happens is then it depends on what the monetary policy operates like because the question will be whether those who are holding those currencies will receive an interest rate differential that will compensate for the depreciation and the value of the currency and so the central bank at some point sometimes through IMF support or sometimes through that other there's just a tightening of monetary policy has to create an interest rate that will offset both the inflation rate and the depreciation of the currency and knowing how that mechanically happens is the means by which you can identify the bonds the bottoms in those currencies I see when you say that to you it looks as though they're two-thirds on the way toward the bottom now does that mean is it as simple as saying that there's still a one-third depreciation left in their currencies before they're able to reach that point where they can wear the currencies are cheap enough to attract new capital and restore the balance of people speaking as a generalization I'm saying that they are that if you if there's place out classically what they'll have is large fiscal deficits and how they choose to monetize those fiscal deficits or how they choose to restructure their balance sheets through IMF loans or through the tightening of monetary policy will be the determinant of the exact bottoms in those currencies right and so but just generally speaking the greater of the moves is behind us the greater of the concern we will have a lot of panic we and more panic and you'll have that and as the saying goes the time to buy is when there's blood in the streets right and to know when there's value and those of the calculations one has to do is there enough blood on the streets yet to see value well I think we're getting there generally speaking and I think I think it's important also but that's that case of inflationary depressions I think we should also think of the types of depressions that we go through because I think that's also interesting well let's talk about that we just lived through the aftermath of a big debt crisis the kind of thing that you say and your book comes along every 70 years or so but we're in the midst of another bubble is that we're in the midst of another cycle no I don't I don't think we're in the midst right now of another bubble let me maybe clarify when you hit zero interest rates you have a different type of debt crisis you have more likely to have a depression so I think the period that we're in is very similar to the 1935 1940 period let me just explain that in a minute 1929 to 1932 we had a debt crisis and interest rates hit zero not 2007 to 2009 we have a debt crisis had hit zero then in both of those cases there's only one thing for central bank's to do and that is to print money and buy financial assets they print money buy financial assets in both of those times that pushes financial asset prices up puts a lot of liquidity and and also contributes to a greater wealth gap because those who own financial assets benefit when those who don't own financial assets as a result in both periods of time of the wealth gap and the economy not improving for a large segment of the population we have populism so the last time that we would say when was populism popular it would be in the in that period of time that populism issue is an important issue so as we look forward and we say when the next downturn comes which will happen probably in a couple of years we're going to have a different type of downturn very similar to the one that happened in 1937 to the 1940 period we are we are in the part of the cycle now that the Fed and other central banks in varying degrees are beginning to tighten monetary policy asset prices are sensitive to monetary policy because the duration of those assets is lengthened and so the central banks have to be very careful not to raise interest rates much faster than is built into the curb but with that populism we have an issue so if we think about what the next downturn will be like the downturn and I think will be very different than the one in 2008 it'll be one in which I think that the social and political problems will be great because of that wealth gap in populism I think there'll be a more conflict right now times are good and we're sort of at each other's throats in that I also think I also worry about the effectiveness and monetary policy in reversing that because monetary policy has interest rates and we can't lower interest rates as much and it has quantitative easing the purchases of financial assets to push other financial assets out and get what put it into the system and that is at its maximum so when we have a downturn we're not going to have it to be as effective I think also the downturn well in our form of debt crisis won't just be doc debts it'll also be pension obligations healthcare obligations unfunded love obligations so so and I think one more thing and I think it'll be about us having to sell a lot of Treasury bonds to the rest of the world and I think that that'll also be an issue about two years out so I would say two years out is when I'm worried about and I and I would think that that's for these various reasons speaking in financial terms if we look at what you're saying through the lens of the markets how bad is it likely to be relative to what we went through in 2008-2009 oh I don't think that it's going to be as sharp and severe like that I think it's more going to grind on and I think the it all of these obligations will be a problem to be funded and I think it'll be more back there of a dollar crisis than it would be a debt crisis and I think it'll be more of a political and social crisis within a big thing well when we have to sell a lot of Treasury bonds to the rest of the we have to sell a lot of Treasury bonds and we as Americans will not be able to buy all of those Treasury bonds and if interest rates rise too much the way it usually works is that constricts credit we borrow less and that creates a weakness in the economy so instead because we'll sell to foreigners the from a foreign perspective when they look at it they they care not about inflation they care about currency depreciation when they look at the interest rate so if a currency goes down if the bonds become cheaper I think the Federal Reserve at that point will have to print more money to make up the for the deficit have to monetize more of the and that that'll cause a depreciation and the value of the dollar I think we're we risk we have the privileged position of being able to borrow in our own currency because we have the world's leading reserve currency I think we are risking that by our finances in other words borrowing too much and you can get to the point where you know others when you own a bond in a in a US bond or in any particular currency you're getting a pile of that currency by how much could the dollar go down well I you know you could have you easily can have a 30 percent depreciation in the dollar through that period of time you know and it depends how long thirty thirty percent I would say raise some people say that you know to use to borrow Ken Rogoff s-- terminology this time is different that because the post-crisis recovery was so slow because we've had a massive tax cut in the United States because the Trump administration is directing the economy the GDP growth is going to keep on accelerating and that a downturn or a recession is many many many years away not two years away a ticket you don't agree I just do the calculations and the fiscal stimulation that we're having is coming at a higher rate of capacity utilization a higher rate and so we're getting that stimulation at the lake part of a cycle and that's what we're having and that's a stimulant that will last for particularly it feels good right wages are rising the unemployment rate is at a record low feeling good is not an indicator of the future euphoria is one what is bubbles are made of euphoria by the way so they feel the best right but I'm just doing the calculations and what I'm saying is that right now the fiscal stimulus is coming in and that's good productivity is enhanced by corporate tax cuts and a lot of money is going to the companies there they have lots of cash that is good for the time being if you do where when that stimulus passes through and then diminishes that that diminishes in about 18 months and two years but the borrowing doesn't so the borrowing will be in the marketplace about that time I'm not I'm not be trying to be precise as to exactly what year or what month that has I think we're nine years into the cycle and the cycles are the are the cycles and the balance of payments and supply demand and credit is what it is and so I'm saying that we're probably in the seventh inning of this game and therefore I'm not particularly worried at the moment but if I was to take as we get to the ninth ending of the game or the then we're going to be how to apply it and and and the important thing I think is not even what I think about this the important thing is for you on each person to really study how these cycles work in the book we we show how all 48 of the cycles over the last 40 last hundred years that we're significant followed the same path so for 60 pages of reading I want to introduce you get that and by the way I'm making it free so that everybody can have it and that's an important point people can download a copy book on your website principles calm but rate one thing I want to ask people go download the book read it analyze it understand what you can help them with this application if you're right if we're seven seventh inning into this ballgame the downturn is two years away what do you do how do you invest what's prudent investors have a choice of whether they're trying to be active investment festers embark at time which most of them are not going to be able to do well that's a professionals game and it's tough to do it as a professional and then their emotions and all the things that enter into that so I would say that generally speaking they should not be actively trying to invest or if they do I would not recommend it but if they do then they have to go opposite their instincts you know by when the blood blood is stripped in the streets and so when times are good if but it what I would say is important just like we were even talking about prior to the show is to be able to have a know how to have balance in the portfolio that know how to achieve that because each market performs as a reflection of the economy at the time and all of the economy's characteristics keeps changing there's inflation and deflation and all that balance is key
Comments 0