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of April 6th. First, let me walk you through some particulars. The large cap Granny Shots, GRNY, as of April 2nd had a price of 2401 and assets of 3.8 billion. Granny J, the mid cap Granny Shots, had a price of 2359 2539 and assets of 377 million. And Granny I, the income Granny, had a price of 1905 and total assets of 45 million.
Over the past week Granny rose 2% while the S&P rose 3.38% underperformance of 132 basis points. Granny J rose 3 and 1/2% compared to a 3.7% rise for the Russell 2500 for 44 basis points of underperformance. And the income Granny rose 2% compared to a 3.38% gain for the S&P 500 or 141 basis points of underperformance.
Now, on the macro, let me explain why I believe the bottom likely is in. I know we're in the fog of war. But keep in mind stocks since there have been eight eight major conflicts in the last 125 years, including this Iran war. And stocks bottom 10% into the duration of the war. Think about that. Only 1/10 into the progress of a war.
Even before troops are committed, stocks typically bottom. This was true of World War II. The US entered the war on December 8th, 1941. The Dow Jones bottomed 5 months into World War II, even though the total war lasted 45 months. We could see it on time series here. This is when the US entered World War II.
The equity markets bottomed 5 months later in May 1942. And June 1942 was the first real Battle of Midway. One month later and the S&P, I'm sorry, and the Dow was already rallying. The US didn't enter Europe until D-Day, June 1944. That's a full 2 years later. And as you can see, the market went up after the invasion.
So, let's knowing this fog of war, let's go back to today. There's three reasons I think the stock market bottomed. The first happened because the stock market began to rise while I oil rose. The equity markets and oil have had an inverse correlation and it got to an extreme inverse correlation recently, the highest in a year, meaning as oil went up, equities went down.
And we could see the oppos- the inverse relationship at play since the war started. Whenever oil went up, stocks went down. Conversely, when oil went down, stocks went up. And this continued, but then there was a pivot the end of March. And that pivot was that oil went up and yet the S&P rose 5%. And then the second thing happened earlier this week, which is we had the less bad news.
The ceasefire is not an end to the war, but it's the beginning of the end of the war. And I know it sounds strange, but it's a rate of change observation. When less bad happens that's considered good. And as you can see, as soon as we got signs of the war was de-escalating, oil fell 20% and the S&P rose.
And the third sign of rose today um which is the end of uh on April 9th. And that's because the VIX had closed above 30 and then fell and closed below 20. It's a sign that risk the idea of seeking risk protection had already peaked. We can see that on this time series. Shortly after the war started, the VIX jumped to 35 and it closed above 30 at the end of March.
And then this past week, it closed below 20, the first time since the war started or it's back to pre-war levels. Since 1990, there have been four times where the VIX moved above 30, then oil had a big decline and then the VIX closed below 20. And here's the thing, the median 6-month return is 9%. Um after closing below 20.
That implies the S&P can get to 7400, which is more than an all-time high. So, nobody rings the bell at the bottom, but I believe the bottom is in. And in terms of leadership, uh we've talked about this in other videos, but since the war started, crypto including Ethereum and Bitcoin have been the best performing asset dramatically outperforming gold.
Then it's energy and then tech. And tech outperforms because people when they worry about growth, global growth, they buy growth stocks. So, let's look at individual stock performance. Top five performers in Granny were Meta Plan, Meta Alphabet, AMD, Goldman Sachs and BNY Mellon. So, financials and tech.
The bottom five performers were Packaging Corp of America MicroStrategy, Chevron 10K and Texas Pacific Land Corp. And uh on Granny J top five performers were Lumentum, EchoStar Reddit, Rocket Lab and Royal Gold. And the bottom five performers are Universal Health Services, MP Materials, HF Sinclair and NextEra Power.
So, again, it's energy. So uh in terms of themes, Millennials was the best performing theme followed by easing financial conditions and um lastly global labor um and AI. So, thanks for listening and I'll speak to you soon.







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