저자: DanielPronk · 외국인
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워런 버핏이 델타항공·사우스웨스트항공 지분을 매도했다는 소식을 근거로 항공주 추가 하락을 전망하는 영상이다. 버핏이 3월 13일 항공주 매도 계획이 없다고 밝혔으나 4월 초 매도가 확인됐고, 이를 항공 업계 구제금융과 자사주 매입 문제로 해석한다. 버핏의 매도 배경에 대한 화자의 추측: 항공 업계의 대규모 현금 손실(하루 약 6천만 달러 추정)과 유동성 위기가 핵심이라고 주장한다. 델타는 유동자산 82억 달러, 유동부채 22억 달러, 선수금(선매출) 83억 달러 규모로 현금 소진 위험이 크다고 본다. 자사주 매입 관련 주장: 델타는 최근 5년간 약 100억 달러를 자사주 매입에 썼고, 2017년·2018년에는 잉여현금흐름을 넘는 매입을 했다고 지적한다. 트럼프 행정부가 자사주 매입 기업에 구제금융을 주기 어려울 것이라는 전제를 깔고 있다. 종목별 평가: 사우스웨스트는 업계에서 재무 상태가 가장 나은 '가장 안전한' 항공주로 꼽았으나 버핏이 매도해 이 평가도 흔들렸다고 본다. 화자가 보유한 에어캐나다는 정부와의 관계, 낮은 자사주 매입, 경영진 보수 삭감 등을 근거로 상대적으로 덜 위험하다고 평가하며, 이것은 개인 의견이라고 명시한다. 향후 전망: 항공 업계 전반에 추가 매도와 가격 하락이 이어질 것으로 보며, 델타 주가가 신저점을 경신할 것이라고 예상한다. 버핏이 5월 2일 주주총회 전까지는 매도 이유를 밝히지 않을 것이라는 점도 언급한다. 리스크: 구제금융이 현 주주에게 불리하게 설계될 가능성, 위기가 1년 이상 지속될 가능성을 열어 둔다.
다듬은 글
okay so I had no intention of making a video today but I just found out that Warren Buffett just sold off a portion of his Delta Airlines Holdings as well as his Southwest Airlines Holdings these are two massive airlines in the US in which Warren Buffett held over a 10% stake in the total company and the only reason we even found out about this is because Burkshire by law had to file with the SEC that he was selling off some of his position in these companies since he owns more than 10% in them so news reporters and analysts have been trying to contact Warren Buffett and birkshire hathway to you know find out what the heck is going on here because they didn't give any explanation as to why they're selling off their Airline stocks and Warren Buffett said he's not going to talk about it until the birkshire haway shareholder meeting on May 2nd so we're going to get no information on why he is selling his Airline stocks until May 2nd which is a month away so this is all just kind of crazy to me which is why I need to make this video because as early as March 13th Warren Buffett said he is not going to be selling his Airline stocks that was less than a month ago and also on February 27th birkshire hathway bought 976 th000 shares of Delta so why is birkshire Hathaway selling its Delta shares right after it acquired them and it's actually selling even more shares birkshire Hathaway is selling 12.9 million shares or 18% of its current Delta Holdings so this this is a big deal and something has changed so the only information we have is the information on who Warren Buffett actually is as a person and how he has acted in the past in his buys and his sells and we can take that information and try to apply to what is going on right now so the rest of this video is going to be me speculating a little bit on why Warren Buffett would be selling his Airline stocks and why should you listen to anything I have to say well I practice value investing and Warren Buffett is my idol I research Warren Buffett's investing strategy religiously so I think that I might have some more insight to provide to everyone on what he might be thinking right now and that is the best I can possibly offer in this video so now let's just hop into what I think might be going on here with Warren Buffett selling his Airlines okay so first off this is the article directly from Yahoo finance where Warren Buffett said I won't be selling Airline dogs and as we can see this was from March 13th of this year so I'm not going to go and read into this article but what I will show you is the end of this video and let me just play it very quickly for you so it doesn't sound like you're selling Airline stocks today I won't be selling ains and boom there you have it March 13th 2020 Warren Buffett himself said he will not be selling Airline stocks and if we go and take a look at Delta's stock now we can see that it closed the day down 88% which is nothing crazy but after hours it is down 11.4% and it's trading at 19 so clearly Warren Buffett selling the stock is having a major impact on the Stock's Health okay so clearly him selling has to do with something related to the global situation going on right now so if we take a look back here around March 12th March 13th we can see that the total amount of cases in the US was around 1,600 and I know that around this time people in North America were still not taking the whole situation seriously at all so I don't want to say that Warren Buffett was being ignorant because he's a very smart guy I just think that maybe he didn't know the full extent of the economic impact that this would have on airlines I mean air traffic has essentially come to a total stop and I read a report that these airline companies are losing up to $60 million a day right now so there's a serious issue going on in the airline industry so now I want to go and take a quick look at a spread sheet that I went over in one of my previous videos on airline companies and if we take a look here we can see that we have Delta United Airlines and Southwest Airlines and we have all of the revenue and everything right here so let's focus on Delta Airlines and Southwest Airlines since these are the two confirmed companies that Warren Buffett is selling so if we take a look at Delta we can see the revenue cost of Revenue nothing really here stands out as a red flag to me but what does stand out is right here their current assets versus their current liabil abilities if we take a look at their current assets we can see that they have $8.2 billion worth of assets so these are Cash Cash equivalents and net receivables so like money that is still owed to the company for services that they have already performed so this $8.2 billion is essentially how much money Delta Airlines can get their hands on relatively easily now as far as current liabilities what these are is the amount of money that Delta owes due within the next year so they owe $2.2 billion in capital within the next 12 months but they only have $8.2 billion in total current assets or liquid Capital so now that these airline companies revenues have essentially gone all the way down to zero and they're operating at a loss of $60 million a day these assets right here are all the money that these companies have to live off of so what this all essentially means is Delta Airlines has $8.2 billion left to run the entire business while it's operating at a loss and generating no profits and the company owes $2.2 billion due within the next 12 months this is a recipe for absolute disaster if Delta does not get some sort of massive bailout this company is going to go bankrupt that is the reality of this situation and in my Airline video that I did recently I identified that Southwest Airlines is the safest airline stock in the entire us so if we take a look at Southwest Airlines current total assets we can see that they have just under $6 billion and if we look at their current total liabilities we can see that they only have around $9 billion so they have less than half the current liabilities as Delta and they have more than half of Delta's current assets so in terms of assets versus liabilities Southwest Airlines had the best balance sheet out of any airline company in the US so this is why I said this is the safest airline in the US but apparently being the safest airline in the US is not enough for Warren Buffett to hold the stock because he is also selling off Southwest Airlines this leads me to believe that Warren Buffett is most likely selling off every airline stock that he currently holds which means that something has changed from March 13th where Warren Buffett said that he will not be selling Airline stocks to today on April 3rd so this ultimately leads us back to the first question why is Warren Buffett selling his Airline stocks and this might actually come down to the bailout package that is happening for airline companies we all know that airlines are a vital and crucial industry that is needed for the expansion of the economy and to just connect businesses around the globe so airlines are not going anywhere and bailouts are going to be coming for these companies so this leads me to believe that maybe the bailout packages that are coming are not favorable for the current shareholders of these Airlines and I think this might come back to share BuyBacks Trump says he want stock BuyBacks prohibited during the global situation and you can see all of these links here Trump supports Banning stock BuyBacks for companies so the Trump Administration has made it very clear that they don't like companies doing stock BuyBacks as especially right now and he also doesn't like companies who have used a lot of their cash flow to buy back stock of their own businesses so with that information I think that companies that were aggressively buying back stocks are most likely not going to get a good bailout package from the US government because the US government has made it very clear that they don't like these companies that have been doing such aggressive BuyBacks so if we go to Delta Airlines and we go to their cash flow we can see how much money they've been investing back into buying back shares of the company so we can see that in the past 5 years alone it's this line right here for common stock repurchased and I already added up all the numbers and Delta Airlines did a total of over $10 billion worth of share Buybacks in The Last 5 Years now this is a company generating billions and billions of dollars in Revenue every single year so in terms of the amount of total revenue that these companies generate and their share BuyBacks the share BuyBacks are actually kind of low but what they're not low relative to is free cash flow free cash flow is the amount of money that the business actually generates at the end of the year so free cash flow could also be seen as if you owned the whole business this is the amount of money your bank account would go up at the end of the year this is your total profit into your bank account so if we take a look at share BuyBacks versus free cash flow that's when it starts to become an issue for example what year is this this is 2017 so in the year of 2017 Delta had 1.2 billion in free cash flow but in that same year they spent 1.6 billion on stock repurchasing so they spent more than their total free cash flow just on buying back the company's stock if we take a look at 2018 we can see they had 1.8 billion in free cash flow and they spent 1.5 billion on common stock repurchases so this is a company that has been aggressively spending their money that they're generating on repurchasing the stock to inflate the stock price and make investors more happy but repurchasing stock does nothing productive for the business as a whole it only inflates the stock price because you're taking more shares of the stock off the market which drives up the valuation per share that's all it does that is literally the only thing that repurchasing stock does it does nothing productive for the business so in terms of a business perspective it benefits no one besides the holders of the company and the people in charge that's why everyone is so upset with all of these companies doing share BuyBacks and then asking for bailouts from the government because Delta Airlines you can see spent over $10 billion in share Buybacks in The Last 5 Years and if we go and take a look at Delta's balance sheet right now now we can see that the total cash the company has as of their last reporting is only $2.8 billion so don't you think that $10 billion in share BuyBacks would be coming in pretty handy right now that's pretty much what the US government is saying like why are they having to bail out companies that have been aggressively buying back their shares why haven't these companies put themselves in a better position to wither any storm I mean the US economy hasn't even been shut down for a month yet which means these Airlines couldn't even survive for one month on their cash it's it's just ridiculous but now I want to go go down to where their liabilities are and again this is on Delta Airlines we're still looking at Delta and this right here is what I want to talk about this is deferred revenues and this is in the current liabilities so this is deferred revenues within the next 12 months and if we go all the way over to the right we can see that Delta currently has $8.3 billion in deferred revenues now for those of you who don't know what deferred revenues are it's essentially money that the business has acquired from its customers or clients for services that it has not yet performed so what deferred revenue is in Delta's case is pre-booked flights so this is the amount of pre-booked flights that Delta has that the company can essentially not you know withhold because Delta is no longer flying internationally so every person who bought an international plane ticket out of the US into wherever is probably now trying to get their money back so this is the number right here and this is why it's a liability because Delta might have to repay all of these people who are trying to cancel their flights and that's $8.3 billion worth of deferred revenue so if even half of these people wanted to get their money back Delta literally doesn't have enough cash right now to give them their money back they're going to have to rely on receivables inventories and prepaid expenses to pay back all of these people and this is not Delta specific this is pretty much across the entire US airline industry so if I had to take a guess at the future outlook for these businesses I think a bailout is potentially coming I just think it might completely screw current shareholders and if Warren Buffett caught window to that that could be the number one reason why he is selling his Airline stocks okay so now I've made my case for what might potentially be happening in the airline industry and now I want to talk to you guys about who Warren Buffett actually is and how he invests this will give us some more insight into why he might be selling first off Warren Buffett is a value investor which is also what I practice here on my own channel what a value investor does is scout out and look for what Warren Buffett calls wonderful businesses when a value investor finds a wonderful business they wait for that business to experience some sort of shock like we are seeing right now and they wait for that Stock's valuation to come way down and then they buy it on sale at a good value that is in essence what a value investor does and this is also why on February 27th Warren Buffett was buying almost a million shares of Delta Airlines because the valuation came way down and he wanted to load up while it was cheap Warren Buffett also believes that the best investment is one that you never have to sell if you can find a company that you can hold for life that is the best investment and that is what every value investor aims to find so the fact that Warren Buffett purchased Delta Airlines and then the stock kept falling and then he didn't buy more when it was even more valuable instead he sold coupling that information with the fact that Warren Buffett thinks the best investment is one that you can hold forever tells us that his future outlook for Airlines has drastically changed something spooked Warren Buffett out of holding Airline stocks in in the US and unfortunately until May 2nd we're not going to figure out what that was but the fact remains a value investor buys a great company on sale because they think that the future of that company's earnings revenues and profits are going to be a lot better than where they acquired it so if Warren Buffett is selling his shares right now then it means that again his future outlook for the earnings revenue and profits for Delta Airlines and Southwest Airlines are not better than what the company is currently reflecting right now and every other investor who knows Warren Buffett knows his investing strategy is getting spooked by this going on which is why we see that Delta Airlines is down 11% after hours because as soon as this News catches wind every other investor is going to get spooked as well and start selling so in my opinion I don't think that this is the end of the selling for Delta Airlines and I think that the stock is going to see some brand new lows here coming up on the month and I'm going to have to say the same for Southwest Airlines and basically every other Airline in the US because again Southwest Airlines I identified was the safest airline stock you could buy and that wasn't even safe for Warren Buffett selling it so just expect more selling and cheaper prices coming to the airline industry and honestly this has kind of changed my perspective on the airline industry as a whole this information just increased the risk in the airline industry a lot because Warren Buffett knows what he's doing and he's one of my Idols I respect the guy so much and he would not be making this decision if there wasn't something that spooked them so in terms of Air Canada and my own holding I'm not actually that spooked because one Air Canada has a very very good relationship with the Canadian government two Air Canada does not spend nearly as much on stock repurchases and the only time that they have done stock repurchases is when they have record years and again when they do do the stock repurchases it's not nearly as aggressive as these US airline companies down in the states reason number three is that Air Canada was on a very very good path before the global situation happened this is a very very responsible company and they were being so good with their debt and building their cash position Air Canada was potentially said to be one of the biggest and best Airlines in all of North America that is literally where their trajectory was going so Air Canada is a company that just got screwed by circumstance so they were doing everything right and the CEO has been named the top CEO in Canada multiple times also the CEO cut his salary completely he is not being paid by Air Canada at all anymore and that is exactly what you want to see from a leader of a business that is struggling and that is also why Air Canada is my number one favorite stock but please these are just my opinions don't go and buy Air Canada without doing all of your own research and don't trust a word I say without verifying it for yourself and if worst does come to worst and This Global situation lasts up to a year and Air Canada does start getting very tital money then as I said earlier they have a very strong relationship with the government of Canada and the business is a morally good business so I don't see a problem with the Canadian government potentially having to step in and support Air Canada but that's all I'm going to say about Air Canada because this is not an Air Canada video I just wanted to provide my own Insight on my own holding because I've made it clear on my Channel that I am holding Air Canada but with that being said I think they are also going to see some more selling due to this because I think every Airline is going to see selling due to what Warren Buffett and birkshire hathway just did so that was a lot of talking but I really hope that made sense and again these are all just my own opinions but what do you guys think what are your guys opinions on everything going on right now in the airline industry and Warren Buffett selling his shares leave a comment down below and I would love to discuss further with you guys and now I got to edit this video and get it up as soon as possible so everyone can know what's going on so if you guys did enjoy this video or you found it helpful then please remember to just leave a like on it leaving a like really helps you to promote my content to our audience which really helps my channel out and I really appreciate it and if this is your first time here and you want to see more content like this or stay up to date with what's going on in the markets then please consider subscribing to my channel as well that would also be pretty awesome and that's going to end the video so thank you so much you guys for watching and I hope to see you all again in the next one
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