저자: DanielPronk · 외국인
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레이 달리오 브리지워터의 13F 포트폴리오 변화를 분석해, 고PFCF 전통 가치주(P&G·J&J·코카콜라·펩시·맥도날드)는 매도·감축하고 저평가된 성장/기술주(메타·구글·마스터카드·페이팔)와 유가 관련주(코노코필립스)는 편입한 것으로 해석함 가치주 감축 근거: 현금흐름 대비 주가 배수(P/FCF)가 22~39배로 과거 평균 대비 높고, 최근 10년 매출 성장률은 0~4% 수준으로 둔화됨. 인플레이션 헤지 수요로 주가가 과열됐다고 봄 월마트·코스트코 매수 근거: 두 종목은 2022년 2분기에 약 25~31% 조정을 받았고, 재고비용 증가로 잉여현금흐름이 급감했으나 장기적으로 마진이 회복될 것으로 봄 기술주 편입 근거: 메타(P/OCF 약 7.7), 구글(약 16)은 과거 10년 연평균 매출 성장률이 각각 40%, 20%로 높고 주가 배수는 과거 평균 이하로 압축됨. 성장주가 값싸졌다는 판단 코노코필립스 근거: 유가 급등으로 잉여현금흐름이 사상 최고 수준이며 FCF 수익률 약 11.7%, 달리오가 고유가 지속을 예상하는 것으로 해석함. 다만 에너지 업종은 경기순환적이라고 경고함 출연자 견해: 영상 전반의 결론은 가치주 고평가·성장주 저평가이며, 달리오의 리밸런싱이 이 흐름과 일치한다는 것. 구체적 가격 목표는 제시하지 않음
다듬은 글
Ray alio is said to be one of the best macro investors in the world and recently he filed his 13f which gives us the public an insight into what he is buying and selling in the Bridgewater portfolio in today's video I want to go through ralo's portfolio and show you well what he is buying and selling and give you my opinion on why he might be buying and selling these positions in specific with that being said let's just hop right into the video and I want to show you all right here what Rayo is buying right we can see if we just scroll down these are Bridgewater's top 50 positions and number one is Proctor and Gamble then Johnson and Johnson an Emerging Market ETF the Spy index and then Coca-Cola and further down here we can see that rallio is also trimming down another Emerging Market ETF Pepsi and then down here he is also trimming McDonald's now I want to show you all why I think that he is trimming down his strong American brands so we're going to head over to stock unlock here very quickly and I'm just going to input Proctor and Gamble Johnson and Johnson Coca-Cola Pepsi and lastly we are going to input McDonald's here now what we're going to do is we're going to take a look at these five companies price to free cash flows in our free form tool here and right away we can see that Johnson and Johnson is trading for a price to free cash flow of 22 Coca-Cola is 27 McDonald's is 32 Pepsi is 39 and Proctor and Gamble is about 26.3 what I am noticing here is that these are quite expensive price ratios for these businesses these are businesses that are not growing very quickly at all and they're selling for Price ratios around 30 the only one that is not selling for a price of free cash flow of around 30 is Johnson and Johnson if we also scroll down here to stock unlock Quick stats we can see that the average price to free cash flows for these businesses are well below where they are currently trading for example Pepsi's average price to free cash flow over the past decade has been about 25 and now it is for a price to free cash flow of about 39 so it is selling way above its historical averages now also if we scroll back up here and we take a look at the revenue growth of all of these businesses over the past decade and scroll down we can see that Proctor and Gamble has actually not grown its Revenue over the past decade Johnson and Johnson has grown at about 4% annually Coca-Cola has not grown Revenue over the past decade McDonald's has not grown revenue and Pepsi has grown at 2% when you take a look at the revenue growth of these businesses and then you think well you know these businesses have priced free cash flows of around 30 right now while they're not really growing Revenue it tells me that they are starting to look very expensive and here on my channel I have been saying that these stocks have been looking expensive for quite some time so let's also take a look at the free cash flow growth of these five businesses and this is a little bit of a different story Proctor and Gamble has grown free cash flow at about 4% annually Johnson and Johnson about 6% Coca-Cola about 4.5% and then Pepsi and McDonald's is about 3% so all of these businesses over the past decade have managed to grow their free cash flows but it's still not at a very fast rate I just don't think that these rates or these growth rates to free cash flow can really justify a price to free cash flows of like 30 it really looks to me like these businesses have been becoming more and more expensive especially over the past couple of years why I think that these businesses have become more expensive over the past couple of years is because inflation is really high inflation is at a 40-year high right now and Warren Buffett has said that the best thing to own during High inflationary periods is businesses with strong Brands like Coca-Cola like Pepsi like McDonald's like Johnson and Johnson and like Proctor and Gamble so what I think has happened over the past couple of years is investors are buying these positions or buying these stocks massively because they're seen as strong inflation Hedges this has led to these stocks rallying like crazy and ultim Ely these stocks are now looking very expensive relative to their underlying fundamental growth so now let's head back over to ralo's portfolio right here and it does make sense to me why he may be wanting to trim down these positions because they are getting quite expensive in my own opinion now it's also interesting though is that Ray has increased his position in Costco and Walmart so if we head over here to stock on a lock and we take a look at Walmart and we zoom in on the stock chart we can see that Walmart had this massive correction in the second quarter the stock price fell by about 25% so in the second quarter of 2022 Walmart saw that 25% correction now if we also head over here to Costco Costco's stock had similar price action here in April of 2022 it was selling for about $63 a share and then in the second quarter of 2022 it fell by 31% all the way down to about $416 a share so both Walmart and Costco saw Corrections of about 25 to 30% in the second quarter and it looks like Ray doio used this as an opportunity to increase his position in these businesses so right here we can see that both Walmart and Costco's free cash flows are absolutely um well Walmart's free cash flow is absolutely tanking it was about $26 billion in the first quarter of 2021 in the tring 12 months now it is sitting at about 5.4 billion so Walmart's free cash flow has fallen by like what is that around 70 to 80% over the past year and this is because Walmart and Costco have massive increases to inventory costs right now and it's eating away at their free cash flow and this is also due to inflationary pressures they're they're seeing a little bit of an over Supply this is harming margins it's harming their free cash flow margin it's making the free cash flow drop and it's making the stock prices drop and it looks like Ray Delio is taking advantage of this and buying the dip on these businesses because over the long term I do think that their margins and their profitability is going to come back and yeah to me again it just looks like Rayo is taking advantage of the dip on Costco and Walmart let's head back over to rayo's portfolio let's take a look at the largest percent gains so the positions that he's adding the most to in terms of percent changes and what's interesting about this is the top positions are meta Google MasterCard PayPal and then kico Phillips these top four positions right here that he's adding to are all tech stocks and this is interesting because think about it he's selling off your typical value stocks like Pepsi and Coca-Cola and he's adding to the more the more tech stocks and the more growth stocks like meta Google MasterCard and PayPal let's head back over to the free form tool once again let's take a look at meta let's add in Google and let's add in MasterCard here now what I want to do is take a look at these businesses and really what I want to take a look at is their priced offering and cash flows right now because meta is sitting at a priced operating cash flow of only 7.7 MasterCard is sitting at a higher priced operating cash flow of about 34 but Google is sitting at a price to operating cash flow of about 16 if we take a look at Google and meta specifically these businesses are trading at price to operating cash flows well below the typical value stocks again like Coca-Cola and Pepsi um Google is selling for about half the price to operating cash flow as Pepsi right now and I think that this is super interesting because if we take a look at the revenue growth of these businesses and we scroll down we can see that meta has grown Revenue over the past decade at a compounded annual growth rate of 40% Google is 20% and MasterCard is about 11.6% if we even zoom into the past 5 years meta is about 32% Google 24% and MasterCard about 14% if we want to round up these businesses are now trading for Price ratios at or well below the typical value stocks and they are growing much much more rapidly so what I am seeing in in the market and what I've been saying here on my channel for quite some time is that the value stocks are starting to look expensive and your typical growth stocks are now starting to look cheap if we even take a look at these businesses free cash flow growth over the past 5 years meta is 22% Google is about 19% and MasterCard is about 19% compounded annually again over the past 5 years these growth rates far outpaced the other stocks and now these stocks right here are trading for cheaper price ratios now the last thing that I want to show you well is once again the price to operating cash flows and I want to show you the historical averages because Google's historical average price to operating cash flow over the past decade is about 17.65 it's now trading well below that this is the same story with meta and MasterCard is the only one here that looks like it is trading above its historical averages but these other two tech stocks in my opinion are looking quite cheap in the market right now so it looks like rallio is kind of making a rotation out of your typical value stock and then buying the tech stocks while the tech stocks have seen a massive correction over the past year and their price ratios have really compressed if we head back over to ralo's portfolio the next position here is kico Phillips or cop this is an oil company and if we take a look at cop here we can see that cop's price to operating cash flow is about 5.66 right now which is quite low if we also take a look at the price to free cash flow um this is a much more volatile metric for this company's history but kico Phillips price to free cash flow is only 8.6 right now and this is very interesting to me because if we take a look at the company's free cash flow it is absolutely skyrocketing it is sitting at is it is it sitting at an all-time high Y the trailing 12 months free cash flow for this business is sitting at a trailing 12 months um all-time high right now and if we take a look at the company's free cash flow yield it's also sitting at about 11.7% so if kico Phillips wanted to you know take 100% of the free cash flow and pay that out as a dividend to shareholders it could pay out about a 12% dividend yal right now on today's share price using organic cash flows because oil prices are just skyrocketing and that is allowing the business to see this massive growth to free cash flow and it looks like Ray alio is increasing his position in this oil company to benefit from the high oil prices which also may tell us that Ray alio thinks oil prices are going to remain high this is kind of a cyclical sector I mean take a look at the free cash flow for this business once again we can see that this is kind of a cyclical sector I mean you got high free cash flows in 2007 then during the Great Recession free cash flows went Negative they absolutely tanked then they came back in 2011 then they fell back to 2015 then they came back in 2018 fell in 2020 and now they are absolutely skyrocketing so you can see that this is a cycal sector the oil sector is very cyclical but even though that the the free cash flows and oil prices are at an all-time high right now again Ray Delio is happy to be buying these stocks and increasing his position so maybe he thinks again that oil price are going to her M high or maybe even go higher let me know what you think down in the comment section below this is all of the top moves that Rayo is making and just to summarize it looks like he is trimming or selling off his typical value Brands like Coca-Cola Pepsi McDonald's Proctor and Gamble and Johnson and Johnson and now he is adding tech stocks like Google meta Paypal Mastercard and um he's even adding oil stocks so let me know what you guys think down in the comment section below and also if you guys are interested in this platform here that I use on my channel stock unlock you can now get a 14-day free trial by clicking the link at the top of my description and you guys can get access to this platform it is absolutely amazing and we are building out a portfolio feature right now where you will be able to track your portfolio and it's going to be one of the best portfolio trackers on the internet I seriously mean that and um we're building it out right now it should be out hopefully within the next month or so if you guys want that 14-day free trial to stock unlock then click that link at the top of my description and that's pretty much going to wrap up the video everyone so once again let me know what you guys think about Ray Al's portfolio and if you enjoyed this video then please remember to leave a like on it and if you're new here then please consider subscribing to my channel if you want to stick around and see more stock market related content but that's going to wrap up the video everyone so thank you again so much for watching I truly do appreciate it and I really hope to see you all again in my next video
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