저자: DanielPronk · 외국인
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결론: 영상은 알리바바가 실적 성장에도 중국 규제 우려로 크게 저평가되어 있으며, 찰리 멍거의 추가 매수가 이를 뒷받침한다고 주장한다. 멍거의 알리바바 매수: 2021년 1분기 230~240달러대에서 매수를 시작했고, 3분기 13F에서 보유량을 82.7% 늘려 30.2만 주를 보유했으며 추가 매수가는 약 148달러다. 주가는 143달러 수준으로 손실 상태다. 다른 슈퍼투자자: 모니시 파브라이 포트폴리오의 약 21%가 알리바바이며, 레이 달리오도 보유하고 긍정적이다. 레이 달리오의 중국 관점: 중국 경제는 상향식이 아닌 정부 주도이며, 대기업에서 부를 거둬 재분배한다. 베이징 신규 증시 개설로 소규모 기업 지원이 이어질 것이라 본다. 중국이 최대 기업을 죽이려는 것은 아니며, 미중 시장은 상호 보완적이라는 입장이다. 세금·규제 리스크: 알리바바는 2021 회계연도 실효세율 18%, 2022 회계연도 23~25%를 경고했고, 28억 달러 반독점 벌금도 실적 부담이다. 사업 실적: 중국 활성 고객 9.12억 명, 해외 2.65억 명이며 모든 사업 부문이 연 10% 이상 성장 중이다. 다만 수익성과 마진은 하락하고 있고, 베트남 등 해외 투자로 잉여현금흐름이 압박받는다. 밸류에이션: PER 약 17배, 잉여현금흐름 기준 약 13.5배로 역사적 저점 수준이다. 잉여현금흐름 수익률은 시총 대비 약 7.4%다. 150억 달러 자사주 매입 프로그램(이 중 50억 달러 집행)이 언급됐다. 애널리스트 전망: 평균 목표 주가 상승률 약 78~80%, 최고 146%, 최저 23.5%다. 매출은 2026년까지 현재의 두 배 이상으로 예상된다. 출연자 견해: 시장이 알리바바를 실패하는 기업처럼 가격에 반영하고 있다고 보며, 장기 성장을 확신한다. 자신은 포트폴리오의 5% 미만을 보유하고 있다.
다듬은 글
hello everyone and welcome back to another video in today's video I have some pretty exciting news and this is not the video that I was planning on making today I actually had a whole another video planned and I had to scrap that one because we need to talk about what is going on with Charlie Munger and Alibaba today so I sure that by now most of us know that Charlie Monger does own some Alibaba shares and that he was initially purchasing his shares back in q1 of 2021 and I believe that he was buying some here in this $230 to $240 range again back in the first quarter of 2021 however since Charlie moner initially purchased his Alibaba shares back in the first quarter the stock has just continued tanking and tanking and tanking and tanking and today the stock closed at $143 a share so Charlie Munger is quite down on his position and this left a lot of investors asking what is Charlie Munger thinking right now is he selling his position has he changed his mind is he adding what is Charlie Munger doing well today Charlie Munger released his 13f Q3 2021 filing which updates the public on what he owns in the daily journals portfolio and we can now see that Charle Munger has in fact been adding to his Alibaba position and he increased it by 82.7% and he now owns 302,000 shares and these additional shares that he purchased were purchased at a price of about $148 a share so Charlie Munger is in fact averaging down and it looks like he is doubling down on his Alibaba position now if we we also go and take a look at Charlie munger's activity we can see that this guy is not too active in the markets and he doesn't really buy or sell stocks that much I mean before this Alibaba Buy in the first quarter of 2021 his most recent activity was in Q4 of 2014 so Charlie Munger has not bought or sold a stock in seven years and he is now buying Alibaba and again in the third quarter he has bought even more an average down it looks like if we go and take a look at Alibaba stock we can also see that some other super investors own this stock and in specific monish PAB who is another Super investor who is pretty well known has 21.13% of his portfolio in Alibaba now monish has not reported his q31 13f so I don't know if he is adding to his position or what he is doing with Alibaba but he does seem quite bullish on the company I mean 21% of his portfolio is in Alibaba right now Ray Delio is another well-known super investor who is bullish on Alibaba and also own shares of Alibaba in his own portfolio so what are all of these super investors seeing with Alibaba and why are they taking the risk on buying Alibaba shares while the stock is absolutely collapsing well I did a full video on Ray doio and his views on China and in this video on my channel I explain what rallio believes China is doing with all of their recent regulations and just everything the Chinese government is doing to their companies I would recommend watching this full video on my channel because it is quite insightful to everything going on in China but to save you all time Ray basically says that China's economy works from the top down and not the bottom up this simply means that the Chinese government is the one making the rules and that they take money from the most successful people and the most successful businesses to redistribute that money throughout their entire economy they essentially tax the rich and the mega companies like Alibaba and then redistribute that wealth throughout the lower and middle class to strengthen the whole system this is also why Alibaba has been warning investors that they should expect taxes to continue increasing in the future and stay high because China is redistributing this wealth throughout the nation in this article Alibaba says Alibaba paid an 18% effective tax rate for fiscal 2021 during which it swallowed a record $2.8 billion antitrust penalty the company told investors its effective tax rate for fiscal 2022 could raise to 23 to 25% so again Alibaba is warning investors that their taxes are increasing and that their effective tax rate could increase by 5 to 7% next year for fiscal 2022 now Ray Delo also says that investors are misinterpreting what is going on in China and that China is not going back to being a full-on Communist economy one of his key points was that China is introducing a brand new stock market in Beijing that will host smaller companies and this will ultimately allow Banks to invest in these smaller compan companies instead of making them take on debt so basically instead of banks loaning smaller businesses money they will now be able to invest by equity and benefit from the growth of the smaller companies so by doing this Ry is basically saying that China isn't killing capitalism in their nation and they still want their companies to go on and succeed like Alibaba like tens Cent like jd.com and all of these other major Chinese companies it's just that China believes it is time for these Giants to start paying to support more of the country growth and redistribute the wealth that these companies are amassing but basically again Ray doio is saying that China's goal is not to completely kill off their most successful companies now Ray Delio also wrote a pretty long note on LinkedIn about what is going on in China and with the Chinese Capital markets right now this is actually a pretty long note and I would recommend everyone go and read it for yourself but I just want to point out the last paragraph of his note because I do think that this is the most important paragraph So in this note it says as for investing as I see it the American and Chinese systems and markets both have opportunities and risks and are likely to compete with each other and diversify each other hence they both should be considered as important parts of one's portfolio I urge you to not misinterpret these sorts of moves as reversals of the trends that have existed for the last several decades and to let them scare you away so again Ry is saying that investors are misinterpreting what is going on in China right now and people are not not focusing on the long-term Trend that has existed in China for several decades now the long-term Trend that Ray Delio is talking about is simply the growth of the Chinese economy China's economy has seen absolutely ridiculous growth especially over the past 20 years and it's being admirable to be honest with you and now China is projected to pass the US in GDP by 2028 so China is projected to become the world's largest economy sometime this decade now it's also important to note is that Alibaba is one of the largest companies in China for example in the third quarter Alibaba had 912 million active customers on their ecosystem in China alone think about that 912 million active customers that is a lot of people on top of this they had 265 million active customers internationally and their International customers grew by nearly 10% quarter over quarter so Alibaba is growing very nicely not just in China but also internationally right now if we take a look at the different business segments and how they are growing year-over-year we can see that literally every single business segment grew by over 10% year-over-year with most actually growing in the 20 to 30% range so again literally every segment of alibaba's business is seeing more than 10% growth year-over-year this company is growing incredibly quickly however despite the company's Topline growth the profitability for for the business is down year-over-year and margins are in fact compressing this is partly because of the $2.8 billion fine that they had to pay the Chinese government and it's also partly because of the increased taxes that they were warning about on top of this Alibaba has been investing in more growth which obviously is harming the profitability and the free cash flow so there are a few different headwinds for profits that Alibaba is facing right now for example recently Alibaba invest $400 million into Vietnam to and benefit from the growth of this country's retail economy the reason Alibaba did this is because Vietnam was one of the fastest growing economies in 2020 so Alibaba is spending hundreds of millions of dollars to gain exposure to the growth of this economy in Vietnam which obviously again is hurting their free cash flow now if you have been watching my channel for some time this is basically like what Amazon is doing right now because Amazon is investing tens of billions of dollars into Global infrastructure to continue capturing the growth of the global e-commerce industry this is simply because the global e-commerce industry is projected to grow by another $1 trillion by 2025 so companies like Amazon and Alibaba are investing aggressively now to capture more of this future growth which again lowers cash flow and profitability in the short term Alibaba themselves have also said that they're confident in the business's long-term prospects and one of the company's key missions is to be a business that lasts 101 years the company is and has always been hyperfocused on the long term and not what is going on in the short term and I think this is another reason why Charlie Monker likes them so much all right so now let's head back to stock unlock and I want to show you all some of the fundamentals of Alibaba and what I am personally seeing in this business like why do I own some shares of Alibaba let me show you so let's head over to alibaba's financials and let's head over to their income statement they're trilling 12 months let's take a look at their total revenue here we can see that from 2013 when Alibaba became a public company to their most recent quarter they have been growing incredibly well and quarter over quarter over quarter the company has been recording record amounts of Revenue so the business has seen phenomenal growth over the years and I personally do not believe that this growth is going to slow down anytime soon now if we head over to stock unlocks freeform tool we can once again take a look at the revenue growth over time but now I want to add in alibaba's stock price so let's add that into our chart now what's interesting is that generally over time as alibaba's fundamentals and as alibaba's Revenue has grown the stock price has respected that underlying fundamental growth however take a look at what started happening here in October of 2020 alibaba's price simply just started ignoring the fundamentals and the price has been absolutely dropping while the revenue has been continuing on higher so recently there has just been a massive disconnect between alibaba's fundamentals and the price of the stock so let's get rid of the stock price and the revenue and now let's start typing in price to earnings let's take a look at what the price to earnings has been doing alibaba's price to earnings is now sitting at only 17 and if we just take a look at this chart there has only been a few times in the past where Alibaba has gotten this cheap in regards to its earnings even during the stock market crash of 2020 alibaba's price to earnings was sitting at 17.7 so the price to earnings today is lower than when the stock market crashed in 2020 and the last time before the stock market crash of 2020 that Alibaba was this cheap was all the way back in 2016 when Alibaba had a price to earnings of 15 so taking a look at this chart it looks like Alibaba is approaching its historical lows in terms of its price to earnings ratio and the stock just looks like it's getting incredibly cheap so now let's take a look at the price to free cash flow and not the price to earnings and here we can see that alibaba's price to free cash flow is now sitting at 13.5 and this is actually the cheapest that Alibaba has ever been in terms of price to fre fre cash flow even during the stock market crash of 2020 Alibaba was sitting at a 15 priced to free cash flow so again it is sitting at a record low in terms of this ratio so now I want to take a look at the price to sales the price to sales is not my favorite ratio but some people like it so let's take a look at what's going on here and once again this ratio is sitting at a record low so when investors such as myself are taking a look at alibaba's different price ratios this stock looks incredibly cheap but what do all of these different price ratios mean are they just ratios that investors throw into the middle of nowhere to try and get people to buy stocks or do these price ratios have a real tangible effect on the fundamentals of the business and I would go with the latter and let me show you what I mean here so instead of price ratios let's now go and take a look at alibaba's free cash flow and let's graph their free cash flow with the market cap of the business and I'm just going to zoom in a little bit here and let's go to the most recent information that we have so here we can see that in the trilling 12 months Alibaba has produced $29 billion of free cash flow and the market cap is now sitting at $391 billion so what I want to do is just pull out my calculator very quickly and let's enter in that $29 billion and let's divide it by the market cap of 392 billion I'm just going to round up so I'm going to divide this by 392 billion let's times this by 100% And here what this tells me is that the amount of free cash flow that alib Baba is producing right now is about 7.4% of the total market cap of the business so what does this mean for me as an investor well when I'm taking a look at Alibaba right now this basically means that if Alibaba wanted to use all of the free cash flow they could pay me a 7.4% dividend using the cash flow that the business is producing right now not even factoring in any of the company's future growth so when I am taking a look at how much cash can this business produce for its shareholders well right now on its current market cap it can produce about 7.4% for shareholders on the valuation today and now just to get back to the price to free cash flow ratio really quick if I take 100% And I divide it by the 7.4% that Alibaba can return to shareholders right now we get the price to free cash flow of 13.5 so basically the lower the price to free cash flow the more the company can return to shareholders and that's why when I'm taking look at a company with a very low price to free cash flow it really starts to interest me because it means that this company can in fact return quite a bit of cash to the shareholders who are owning that business or investing in it however I don't think that Alibaba really wants to spend all of their free cash flow on paying out a dividend and instead in the first quarter of 2021 Alibaba announced that they're doing a $15 billion share buyback program as their q1 revenues surged 34% year-over-year a $5 billion share buyback program is basically a 3.8% return to shareholders on today's market cap now so instead of paying out 50 billion in dividends they chose to do a $5 billion share buyback program which is again 3.8% of the company today so now let's go and take a look at what analysts are expecting for Alibaba and here we can see the average revenue estimate for Alibaba over the coming years and these numbers right here are in Chinese currency so we can see that in the trilling 12 months Alibaba produced 769 billion one and by 2026 analysts are expecting Alibaba to produce 1.8 trillion one in Revenue which is more than double what the company is producing today and just to put this in terms of US Dollars 1.
1819 trillion 1 is about 282 billion US in Revenue Again by 2026 so if these analyst projections do come to light then Alibaba is projected to see massive growth in the coming years and it's selling for a 17 price to earnings ratio today and a 13.5 price to free cash flow and then right here at the top of stock unlocks analyst tab we can see that analysts are expecting on average alibaba's share price to increase by 78 to 80% over the next year on the high end analysts are expecting a 146% increase and on the low end they are expecting a 23.5% increase so again analysts do seem quite bullish on Alibaba over the coming years also if by chance you are interested in this research platform that I have been using throughout the video which is stock unlock then you can go and sign up to join our wait list over at stock unlock lock.com this is not yet a public platform and this is a platform that I am personally involved with building out and I think that this platform is going to seriously change the game for how investors do research and how investors learn to do research this is a huge passion project of mine that I want to contain all of the fundamental data that every investor needs when they are researching companies so again if you are interested in stock unlock and staying up to date with this platform and when we decide to release it then you can head over to stock unlock.com enter in your email and and you will be added to our weit list and you will stay up to date with everything going on with stock and loock but personally I think that Alibaba is a massive company seeing fantastic growth around the entire world right now and they should continue seeing strong growth for years if not decades to come I think the market is massively discounting the stock right now due to all of the uncertainty surrounding China and what all of the regulations mean for companies like Alibaba to put it simply I think the market is pricing Alibaba like this is a failing business while at the same time the company seeing growth to the revenues of greater than 30% year-over-year Ray Delio also says that a lot of investors are fearful of China right now but many people who do business and have worked with the Chinese know that their goal isn't to kill off their most successful businesses but rather to have them investing more in the common prosperity of the nation Charlie Munger seems happy to double down on his position and to buy the dip on Alibaba so he doesn't seem too worried in the long-term potential of this business and the long-term Trend that China has been on for the past couple decades with China's projected GDP growth and with the country projected to become the largest economy in the world this decade I personally am happy having a little exposure to this nation however I personally am not making China 20% of my portfolio like Charlie is Alibaba makes up less than 5% of my portfolio and it's a relatively small position for me and I am happy with my current exposure to this company but let me know what you all think in the comment section below do you think that Charlie is crazy for continuing to add to his Alibaba position position or are you guys adding to yours so again let me know in the comment section below because I would love to hear what you all are thinking but with all that being said that is pretty much going to wrap up the video everyone and if you enjoyed this video or you found it helpful in some way then please remember to leave a like on it it really helps out my channel and I really appreciate it thank you all so much for stopping by and checking out my video and I really hope to see you all again in my next one
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