저자: DanielPronk · 외국인
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결론: 레이 달리오 Bridgewater의 2023년 1분기 13F 포트폴리오를 분석하며, 기술주로 순환 매수하고 소비재를 매도한 것으로 해석하고 MSFT는 고평가로 본다는 영상. [13F 포트폴리오 개요] 1분기에 달리오가 기술주 쪽으로 자금을 옮기고 소비재(화이자, 타겟, 월마트, 코카콜라, 맥도날드 등)를 대거 매도한 것으로 해석함. 가장 큰 보유 포지션은 신흥국 ETF(IEMG 계열)로 약 5.3%이며 1분기 22.7% 추가 매수. [MSFT] 1분기 주식 수 약 1,400% 증가로 1위 매수 종목이라고 언급. 매출은 사상 최고치지만 잉여현금흐름은 2022년 2분기 650억 달러 정점에서 최근 약 574억 달러로 하락. PFCF(주가/잉여현금흐름)는 약 43배로 20년 내 최고 수준이며 고평가라는 견해. 역DCF 기준 현재 주가를 정당화하려면 향후 10년 FCF 연 14.7% 성장, 주식 수 연 1.25% 자사주 매입, 10년 후 PFCF 25배가 필요하고 2033년 FCF 약 2,262억 달러가 필요하다고 제시. 이 조건상 향후 5~10년 대규모 수익은 기대하기 어렵다는 견해. [GOOGL] 1분기 추가 매수 종목. 매출 사상 최고치지만 최근 분기 성장은 둔화. FCF는 반등 추세이며 TTM 약 620억 달러. PFCF는 현재 약 25.6배, 1분기 저점 약 19.6배. 2022년 말 PFCF 17배 때 저평가로 판단했던 과거를 언급. 현재는 밸류에이션이 확장되어 적정 가치 부근이라는 견해. [META] 1분기 추가 매수 종목. 매출은 2020년 말 이후 정체, 메타버스·AI 데이터센터 등 대규모 capex로 FCF가 약 절반으로 급감. 2022년 말 PFCF 약 9.7배로 극저평가였으나 현재 약 38배. 200% 상승 후라 더 이상 저렴하지 않고 적정가 이상일 수 있다는 견해. [PYPL] 1분기 매수 종목. 매출은 사상 최고치, 연간 FCF는 약 50억 달러로 3년간 정체. PFCF는 2021년 약 72배에서 현재 약 13.3배로 2015년 이후 최저 수준. 고점 대비 약 80% 하락. 성장 동력(FCF 성장)을 찾아야 한다는 조건을 달지만 매출 성장이 유지되어 저평가 매수로 해석. [소비재 매도 및 비교] 소비재(코카콜라 PFCF 약 27배, 맥도날드 약 36배)는 성장률 3~6% 수준이지만 기술주(GOOGL ~20배, META ~18배, PYPL ~13배, MSFT ~27배)보다 비싸다고 비교하며 기술주 순환 매수를 정당화. [신흥국 ETF 및 거시] 최대 보유 신흥국 ETF는 대만, 삼성, 알리바바 등 상위 종목, 중국 약 20%·인도 약 15% 비중. 고점 대비 약 30% 하락. JP모건 자료 인용: 미국 PER 18.2배, 신흥국 12.1배, 중국 10.5배로 미국이 가장 비싸며 가치 투자 관점에서 중국·신흥국이 매력적이라는 해석. [출연자 전망] 달리오가 2분기에 MSFT를 줄일지, GOOGL·META 보유를 유지할지 관찰이 필요하다고 언급. 미국 기술주는 저점 대비 많이 올라 고평가 우려 제기.
다듬은 글
in today's video we are going to be going through Bridgewater's q1 2023 portfolio and this is a hedge fund that is founded by ralo so this is essentially ralo's portfolio video as of q1 in this year now in this video we are going to be going through all of the major buys and sells that he is doing in this hedge fund and there is a lot of major moves that is going on it looks like rallio is very clearly rotating out of some stocks and then buying other stocks at least as of the first quarter however before we get into the video I have a very quick announcement and that's that stock unlocks 25% off subscriptions is going to be ending at the end of May 31st or at the beginning of June 1st however you want to view that basically you have about 36 hours left to go and lock in a 25% off stock unlock subscription and this 25% off discount will last forever as long as you remain a stock unlocked subscriber so if you go and lock in this discount and you're a member 5 years from now you will still have the discount applied to your account so seriously if you have been considering a stock unlock membership which is the platform that I use to do all of my fundamental analysis and research and we are going to be using it in this video then again make sure you go and lock in that discount because the window is closing you don't have a lot of time left and you got to go and make sure that you lock it in before the discount window closes now with that out of the way let's take a look at what Ray Delio has been buying in the first quarter and we can see that the number one stock that he has been buying was Microsoft with an increase of shares of 1, 1400% so they are massively increasing their Microsoft position so let's head over to stock un loocks free form tool and we're going to take a look at Microsoft really quickly this right here is the revenue and we can see that Microsoft's revenue is sitting at an all-time high right now it did go through a little bit of some stagnation but it looks like in the first quarter they did report some more Revenue growth year-over-year and now in the trailing 12 months the company's revenue is in fact at an all-time high however if we take a look at the free cash flow we can say that it is in a downtrend it topped out here at 65 billion in the second quarter of 2022 now it's sitting at a about 57.4 billion as of the first quarter so Microsoft's free cash flow again is in a little bit of a dip right now which means that if we take look at the company's price to free cash flow it is sitting at 43 right now and if we zoom out over the past 20 years this is actually the most expensive that Microsoft stock has been over the past two decades even right here in 2021 Microsoft stock did not hit a 43 price to free cash flow it got close but as of right now again the company's price to free cash flow is sitting at a 20-year high and honestly I think that the stock is getting quite expensive however Ray Delio was buying Microsoft in the first quarter of 2023 and we can see here that in January Microsoft's price to free cash flow was down at 28 and then it really started seeing its significant run all the way up to 43 so Ray could have been buying Microsoft stock down here in this dip when the price ratios were much smaller or lower and now I have no idea what he is doing with his position it's actually going to be very interesting to see the Bridgewater portfolio's Q2 portfolio update to see see if they still have their Microsoft stock if they're trimming it down or who knows maybe even if they're adding more in the second quarter but personally I think that Microsoft stock is getting overvalued and very expensive and I'll show you exactly why using stock unlocks discounted cash flow calculator right here so what we're going to do is run a reverse DCF and a reverse DCF basically tells us or shows us what the stock price is currently pricing in today so or in other words how does the business have to perform in the future to justify today's stock price so we're going to project out the free cash flow over the next 10 years and I already found the metrics to show the fair value of Microsoft today and what the company has to achieve is a free cash flow growth rate of 14.7% annually over the next decade they have to buy back 1.25% of their shares and trade for a 25 price to free cash flow 10 years out into the future and if Microsoft can hit all of these metrics right here then it will be selling for fair value today what we can also do here is scroll down and this shows us what Microsoft would have to produce in terms of its actual free cash flow and by the year 2033 Microsoft would have to produce $ 226.24 billion in free cash flow just to justify the stock price today now again in the trailing 12 months the company has produced $57 billion in free cash flow so the company would have to basically forx its free cash flow over the next 10 years just to justify the stock price today that is how expensive the stock has gotten in the market so I am not optimistic that Microsoft is going to provide massive returns over the next 5 to 10 years from the stock price today which again is why I am so interested to see if Ray is going to be cutting his position in Microsoft in the second quarter now moving on to the second stock that Bridgewater was buying in the second quarter is Google or alphabet so let's head back over to the freeform tool and let's take a look at Google really quick and we're going to do the exact same thing let's take a look at the revenue and we can see that Google's revenue in the trailing 12 months is sitting at an all-time high but it is kind of stagnating right now it's not growing in the most recent quarter as much as Microsoft was however if we take a look at Google's free cash flow we can see that it is in a dip but it is starting to uptrend once again and in the trilling 12 months now the company has produced about $62 billion in free cash flow and the trend very much so is back on the uptrend now if we take a look at Google's price to free cash flow we can see that it is much more reasonable at about 25.6 right now however in the first quarter of the year it got all the way down to a price free cash flow of about 19.6 so in my opinion I will Google at one point was the largest position in my portfolio another position has overtaken it now but here on my channel I made a video when Google was trading for a price to free cash flow of 17 at the end of 2022 saying that I thought that this stock was a massive opportunity the stock is no longer that cheap but it did remain cheap even in the first quarter now what's interesting is if we zoom out here all the way to 2008 we can see that the lowest Google's price of free cash flow got was all the way back in 2012 at about 14.8 now if we go to the Great Recession in 2000 8 we can see that the price of free cash flow Dro down to about 16 again right here in 2022 Google's price to free cash flow got to about 17 which was the lowest price to free cash flow that this stock was selling for since 2012 and during the Great Recession it was selling for around these prices as well so it looked like Ray doio saw the value here as well and started buying in the first quarter of 2023 and loading up on some more Google I don't know what he's doing now that the price ratios have expanded by about 25% and the stock looks like it is trading for a little bit around fair value now I don't know what they're going to be doing with their position but to me it's very clear why Bridgewater and rallio were buying more alpab bit in the first quarter now the third stock that they were buying is meta this is another tech company and let's just go back to the free form tool once again and let's do the same thing let's take a look at what is going on with meta right now now meta's Revenue has been kind of stagnating since about the end of 20201 it's kind of been flatlining it did get a little bit of a boost in the most recent quarter but they're not really projecting to grow Revenue that much going forward now if we take a look at the company's free cash flow it has fallen off a freaking Cliff it has literally been cut in half and they are investing a ridiculous amount of money into the metaverse and into their AI data centers and their artificial intelligence software and everything and it's just a massive capex cycle that the company is in right now that is weighing down free cash flow and it's suppressing free cash flow massively now I am not 100% sure when the free cash flow margin is going to come back but all I know is right now the company's cash flow flows are in the toilet so now let's take a look at meta's price to free cash flow and this is super interesting so right here at the end of 2022 meta was trading for a price to free cash flow of 9.7 basically the entire Market was saying that meta is a failed business this company is going under everyone thought that Tik talk was going to take over and that meta was just on its way out essentially and again I was making videos here on my Channel about meta at this time saying that I was buying it and that you know I was increasing my position in the company because it was trading for such a ridiculously cheap price now this discount right here did kind of last into the first quarter it did start recovering but it was still trading for a price of free cash flow of around 18 at the beginning of the year and who knows this could have been where Ray doio was buying the stock was right at the beginning of the year however meta stock is now up roughly 200% from its lows that it set in all the way down here in November of 2022 and now the stock is trading for a price to free cash flow of 38 in my opinion this stock is no longer really that cheap honestly I think that it's probably selling above fair value now I don't know how much about fair value it is but I would not be buying the stock here after it has ran 200% the price ratios have changed dramatically and again it's it's selling for a 38 price to free cash flow down which isn't necessarily that cheap this is going to be another one to be interesting to see if Ray is holding his position in the second quarter if they're trimming it down or if they even bought more but now let's take a look at the fourth stock that Ray bought in the first quarter and this is super interesting because this is Paypal let's go and take a look at PayPal Here on our free form tool let's take a look at the fundamental before we take a look at the stock price okay here we can see that PayPal's revenue is actually at an all-time high in the most recent quarter and it has been growing quite well I mean if we zoom out all the way to 2016 this has been a very consistent Revenue growth line and again it is sitting at all-time highs however if we take a look at PayPal's free cash flow it has been kind of stagnant and the company did say that they are expecting $5 billion in free cash flow for the entire year of 2023 which is basically what they have been producing over the past 3 years now right here at the end of 202 you can say that they did produce about $5 billion in free cash flow so again they haven't really grown their free cash flow in the past 3 years cash flow is not growing worth Revenue anymore however if we take a look at the company's price to free cash flow it was trading for about a 72 price to free cash flow in 2021 in my opinion the stock got massively overvalued and now it has been downright crashing and now the stock is trading for a price of free cash flow of about 13.3 if we zoom out here all the way to 2015 we can see that this is the lowest that PayPal stock has ever traded for in terms of its cash flows and the price of those cash flows so the market is very very bearish on PayPal right now despite the company's Revenue continuing to grow and despite the compan still producing that $5 billion in annual free cash flow in my opinion I do think that they do need to find a way to grow the free cash flow in the future but overall the revenue is still growing and the business does still look like it is expanding so to me it's pretty clear why Ray is buying this stock it looks like he just wants to buy it because it's quite cheap right now literally the cheapest the stock has ever been and if we head over to PayPal stock price here we can actually see that the stock is is down about 80% now 81% if we want to round up from its all-time highs it's in a massive massive correction that's a basically a downright crash if you want to take a look at that stock chart there so those were the four top stocks that Ray alio bought in the first quarter and what you'll notice is that these are all tech companies and it's very clear that he was rotating more money into the tech sector now what's interesting is if we take a look at the top stocks that Ray was selling in the first quarter it's companies like fiser Target Walmart craft Roger Hershey General Mills um if we scroll down I believe there's Costco Pepsi Coca-Cola Starbucks McDonald's and a lot of consumer staple brands in the United States so what it looks like to me is that Ray doio is very clearly selling off his consumer staples and adding to his technology stocks now if we head back over to the free form tool here on stock unlock and we go and take a look at Coca-Cola and let's add in McDonald's as well and we're going to take a look at these companies price to free cash flows in the first quarter of 2023 so right around here in the first quarter Coca-Cola was selling for a price free cash flow of 27 and McDonald's was selling for 36 now what's interesting is remember Google at this time was trading for about 20 meta was trading for about 18 PayPal was trading for about 13 and Microsoft was the most expensive trading for about 27 this ultimately means that these tech stocks were trading for Price ratios cheaper than these consumer staple companies that are growing much much slower I believe that they're growing their revenues at something like 3 to 6% per year now when you compare that to the asset light and very financially sound businesses of Google meta Microsoft and PayPal it's obvious that these stocks were looking like they were offering a better return than the Consumer Staples at the time so again it looks to me like Ray was continuing to rotate out of consumer staples and into the technology sector now what's also interesting is Ray's largest position right now isg makes up about 5.3% of the portfolio and they increased their position by 22.7% in the first quarter so it's the largest position and they're continuing to add to it quite a bit so if we head over to stock unlock this is an ETF it's an Emerging Market ETF and we can see that it is currently in quite the dip from its all-time highs here in 2021 it's down about 30% and if we scroll down we can see that the largest stock in this portfolio is Taiwan then 10cent Samsung Alibaba Reliance Industries muton China construction ICDC bank and HDFC Bank in India and if we continue to scroll down we can kind of see the diversification of this ETF around the world we can see that the largest position is in China with 20% of the ETF and then India with 15% of the ETF then it is scattered out around the rest of the world's Emerging Markets then I was going through JP Morgan's Guide to the market which is a monthly update that they released to the public on the overall financial markets and take a look at this this right chart right here shows us the average price to earnings ratios of the US Japan Europe emerging markets and China we can see that the price earnings ratio of the US right right now is sitting at 18.2 the Emerging Markets sitting at 12.1 and China is sitting at 10.5 now remember the Emerging Market ETF that Ry owns is mostly exposed to China and then India and then all of these other Emerging Markets but what you can clearly see is that China and the Emerging Markets right now are massively cheaper than the United States in fact the United States is the most expensive Market out of all of these major markets right here by far basically if you're looking for Value which Ray doio likes to do then it looks like value is really in China and the Emerging Markets right now and that could be why the largest position in Bridgewater's portfolio is an Emerging Market ETF with heavy exposure to China and those other Emerging Markets so that is what rallio is doing in his portfolio as of q1 2023 again it looks like he is rotating out of consumer staples and into the tech sector and it looks like he is adding more to the largest position in the portfolio which is an Emerging Market ETF so let me know what you guys think about these moves down in the comment section below do you agree with these moves do you think that they're bad moves and let me know what you think that he's going to be doing in the second quarter now that Tech has been rallying massively off the lows and that Microsoft is now trading for its most expensive price in the past 20 years it's a very expensive stock in my opinion now also before we wrap up the video I just want to remind you all that the discount to 25% off discount to stock unlock which is the platform that we used to throughout the entire video that discount is ending tomorrow evening so you have about 36 hours left to go lock in that discount don't forget if you have been wanting to subscribe to stock unlock and become a paying member then now is the time to go and lock in that discount and it will last for the remainder of your subscription as I said at the beginning of the video but that's going to wrap up the video everyone so thank you so much for watching I truly do appreciate it and if you enjoyed the video then please remember to leave a like on it and subscribe to the channel if you are new here but again thank you so much for watching and I really hope to see you all again in my next video
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