저자: DanielPronk · 외국인
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빌 애크먼이 우버 주식 약 3,030만주(약 23억달러)를 매수했다는 소식을 계기로 우버 4분기 실적을 분석. 매출 +20%, 총예약 +18%, 조정EBITDA +44%, 잉여현금흐름이 2배 이상으로 증가. 자율주행 파트너십(아부다비, 일본 택시 2만대 등)이 플랫폼 네트워크 해자를 강화한다고 평가. 현재 P/FCF 약 21배로 저평가로 판단하나, 본인은 포트폴리오 집중 원칙상 당장 매수하지 않겠다고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
bill akman just announced on X that he purchased 30.3 million shares of uber which is currently worth over $2.3 billion this means that Uber is now potentially Bill amman's largest position putting it ahead of Brookfield and Google Uber stock has been a controversial one lately with bears saying its business will be disrupted by autonomous vehicles like weo and Tesla while the Bulls are saying Uber has a Network remote that all the AV companies want access to Uber also recently reported its fourth quarter 24 earnings results and initially the market didn't like the report but now the stock is bouncing back strong especially with the news that bill akman has been buying Uber also addressed a lot of the AV concerns in its fourth quarter report which we will cover as well so in today's video I want to quickly go through Uber's fourth quarter earnings and discuss why Bill Amman could be buying it so as always I went through the fourth quarter earnings report and I took screenshots of all of the highlights that I found so right away this is a quote from the CEO where he says Uber ended 2024 with our strongest quarter ever as growth accelerated across mapcs trips and gross bookings record demand and most mobility and delivery helped us grow gross bookings faster than the highend of our guidance and we closed out 2024 exceeding our three-year outlook for gross bookings adjusted IA and free cash flow We believe We remain undervalued despite these strong fundamentals and plan to be active and opportunistic buyers of our stock so it sounds like uber ended the year with a record quarter and this CEO believes that the stock is still undervalued and they are going to start ramping up share BuyBacks so now let's take a look at the actual financials here gross bookings grew 18% year-over-year to 44.2 billion or 21% on a constant currency basis delivery gross bookings of 20.1 billion up 18% year-over-year trips during the quarter also grew 18% year-over-year to 3.1 billion or approximately 33 million trips per day on average revenue grew 20% year-over-year to 12 billion or grew 21% on a constant currency basis combined mobility and delivery Revenue grew 23% year-over-year to 10.7 billion income from operations was 770 million up 118 million year-over-year adjusted IA grew 44% year-over-year to 1.8 billion net cash provided by operating activities was 1.8 billion and free cash flow was 1.7 billion so Uber closed out 2024 with an absolutely phenomenal quarter again Revenue was up 20% bookings were up 18% adjusted iata is up 44% and they don't say it here but free cash flow more than doubled so the business is a free cash flow machine and it's seeing very strong growth now moving on Uber had some interesting operating highlights from the fourth quarter so the first one is the autonomous deployments and Partnerships launched autonomous ride healing services in Abu Dhabi and partnership with wide marking the first time autonomous vehicles are available on the Uber platform outside of the United States additionally began delivering Uber Eats orders and in Austin and Dallas via autonomous sidewalk robots in partnership with avide and in Osaka in partnership with carten lastly formed a joint initiative with Nvidia to collaborate on new solutions to support the development of AI powered autonomous driving technology so Uber is signing autonomous vehicle Partnerships internationally and it sounds like they now have an autonomous vehicle driving on the Uber app in Abu Dhabi and some autonomous vehicles for delivering Uber Eats in Osaka which is in Japan and in Austin and Dallas so it sounds like uber is actually working with the autonomous vehicle companies and they are gaining access to Uber's platform and therefore their customers now this next business highlight is on their taxi expansion and this says in Japan partnered with a leading taxi dispatch provider that will provide up to 20,000 Vehicles onto the platform demand in Japan remains robust driven by increasing usage by domestic Riders as well as International Travelers now the reason that I think that this is interesting is because Uber is bringing more services onto their app and in Japan they're now bringing 20,000 taxis onto the Uber app I was recently in Japan that's why I had about a twoe break from making videos I did a trip there with stock unlock the whole team and while we were there we had the option to call taxis from The Uber app and that is exactly what we did well we had the option of choosing a taxi or an actual Uber and a lot of the time taxis were faster and sometimes even cheaper so this is the power of Uber's platform and this is why more autonomous vehicles and even taxi services want access to Uber's app because Uber now has 170 million users across the planet so these taxi services and autonomous vehicle services can get access to me as the customer through the Uber app and that is their incentive for wanting to join Uber and essentially form a partnership with Uber as well so Uber has this massive Network moat in my opinion all right let's now move over to the cash flow statement and there's some very interesting things going on here so the first one is stock-based compensation actually dropped year-over-year for Uber from 469 million in the fourth quarter last year to 419 million in the fourth quarter this year for the full year of 2024 stock-based compensation was about 1.8 billion versus 1.9 billion last year so Uber again is seeing its stock-based compensation drop and this is at the same time as operating cash flow more than doubled year-over-year for the fourth quarter and for the full year Uber produced $ 7.14 billion in operating cash flow this year while at the same time stock-based compensation dropped now this is the exact opposite of what you typically see usually when a business is growing its profitability you see the executives and the Insiders paying more in stock-based compensation and essentially rewarding themselves even more but with Uber they're going the opposite way they're lowering stock-based compensation expense at the same time as the business's profits are exploding and to me this is a clear indicator through the Management's actions that they're trying to increase the efficiency of the business and produce more rewards for shareholders because shareholders are now being diluted Less on a business that is making even more money now heading back to the cash flow statement we can see that the capital expenditures for Uber's business in the fourth quarter were only $44 million and for the full year of 2024 they were 242 million now what's interesting is Uber's capex isn't really growing year-over-year whereas the oper ating cash flows basically doubled and this is interesting to me because usually we see this type of operating cash flow growth with no capex growth in software type companies so Uber has a software type cash flow statement here where they're able to continue scaling the profits of the business with really no increase in capital expenditures which ultimately means that this business is a free cash flow machine and could probably continue growing its free cash flow substantially going forward so now let's move over to the fourth quarter investor presentation slides and this one right here is says1 trillion doll opportunity that autonomy can unlock in the us alone and then this chart shows the percent of us Urban vehicle miles traveled by price per mile so basically what this chart is showing is vehicle miles traveled versus the price of those vehicle miles and we can see that at the start here it was about $4 and then Uber has been trying to lower the cost per vehicle mile essentially that's what this chart is trying to show here now with shuttles and with autonomous driving Uber is confident that they can get their cost per vehicle mile below $1 and when they do this they believe that they will unlock a $1 trillion Market opportunity in the United States Uber also shows this slide where ride sharing demand is highly variable throughout the week and then Uber says a fixed supply network that can handle weekly Peak demands would not need as much as 95% of the supply during multiple weekly demand troughs the case that Uber is trying to make in this slide is that the optimal ride hailing experience for a business is a hybrid model where you have humans and autonomous vehicles driving so you can kind of think about the autonomous vehicle Fleet as like the Baseline Fleet which would essentially be able to handle the demand in these troughs right here then what Uber is saying you want is that hybrid Fleet for when peak times are there you can bring on humans to handle the high demand because then you're not maintaining a full Fleet that can handle all of this demand at the very Peak right here but then you're also having to maintain a fleet down here in the troughs when there is not a lot of demand so this was kind of interesting I don't know if I explained that well so please let me know down in the comments but again Uber is basically saying that you don't want an autonomous vehicle Fleet to handle the peak times because then you're not using a large portion of your Fleet all of the time which is just a waste of money this is kind of an interesting slide and it is Shifting my perspective a little bit Uber also Uber also amplifies the sentiment by saying and through the year there are no two cities that are the same so in this top US city they call it US city a we can see that demand throughout the year is extremely variable and then in the top US city B demand falls off a cliff from March all the way to October and then it spikes again in December so you need a variable Fleet to handle all of the variabilities in demand right here because again if you had an autonomous Fleet to handle this demand for peak times in March and December then a large portion of your Fleet would be essentially earning you no money and just burning a hole in your pocket from March to October and this is on a city- to City basis so I think that you're not going to be able to replicate an exact business model in one city to another city as well and this again is where the variability of that hybrid platform on Uber comes into play now this next slide shows Uber's progress towards their three-year Outlook that they produced from 24 to 2026 so so far they have beat their gross bookings growth their adjusted iata growth and their free cash flow growth projections so they are well ahead of their threeyear Outlook and they also maintained their three-year Outlook to 2026 of mid to high teen compounded annual growth to their gross bookings 30 to 40% compounded annual growth to IA and a free cash flow conversion of 90% which essentially means that their free cash flow is expected to grow between 30 to 40% all the way out to 2026 so now let's move on to the fourth quarter transcript and these are some quotes from the CEO that I thought were very interesting so here he says lastly a word on autonomous I'd encourage everyone to read our prepared remarks and supplemental slides where we spend some more time this quarter sharing our perspective on the state of autonomous vehicles the key takeaway is that while AV technology is advancing commercialization will take significantly longer and we have conviction that Uber will be the indispensable go to market partner for AV players this is undoubtedly one of our top priorities as we're investing a lot of technical strategic and management attention to this topic with lots more to come and remember earlier on in the video how I said in can they're bringing 20,000 taxis onto the Uber platform so that these taxis can gain access to Uber's distribution and customers well I think that is going to be the exact same thing that happens with autonomous vehicles these autonomous vehicle companies are going to want to get on Uber's platform to gain access to that distribution immediately so let's continue on the CEO then says I think on autonomous vehicles first all the opportunity we think in the US and worldwide for AVS is enormous we estimate that the US Market alone is A1 trillion opportunity as you commercialize AVS at scale and bring the unit economics down and while we're incredibly excited in terms of the development of the technology you see weo in the market obviously who's a terrific partner and a number of players including Tesla trying to get prime time so to speak we think that the commercialization of the technology is going to take way way longer and by the time that the technology commercializes all over the world and in the US you're going to see many many any more players get over the Finish Line as it relates to technology so this is very interesting because the Uber CEO is basically saying that he believes there's going to be much more players in the autonomous vehicle space than just weo and Tesla he says that long-term by the time that these businesses actually commercialize AVS there's going to be a lot more players and a lot more competition so again you have to think about this from the perspective of whmo and Tesla if there's going to be let's say even 10 more autonomous driving ride haing services in the United States then as a consumer you would have to go and download all 10 of these companies these AV companies apps to try and get rides from them that is going to be an awful experience you're going to have to go into every single app try and find a ride see how much it is then manually compare that against each other and for the businesses like weo they would essentially have to create maintain and innovate their own ride hailing app and then also distribute it to over 170 million people just to then start competing with Uber whereas instead of having to build and innovate on their own app and compete against all of these other AV companies trying to do the exact same thing they can immediately go to Uber partner with them and get access to that massive International distribution so I think that as more AV companies come online for the consumer it's going to be better to have one decentralized app and for the AV companies I also think it's going to be in their best interest to get on Uber's app as well and this is the power of having a network Moe so I don't actually think that autonomous vehicles are going to disrupt Uber over the long term I see them all being in partnership with each other now another interesting quote from the CEO says our very very early experience in Phoenix suggests that and some of the other deployments that we've got suggest that the Uber network is able to drive significantly higher utilization versus any kind of first-party network could just because of the scale and variability in terms of supply and demand in a particular Market what Uber is saying here is that so far in Phoenix with weo weo has actually been seeing higher utilization rates or essentially more Demand by getting onto Uber's platform rather than trying to create their own wayo app and just operating solely through their own app so in this real world example it's actually in wh Mo's best interest for their business to use Uber's app because they're seeing higher utilization and therefore their business is actually performing better by being in partnership with Uber so again this is a real world example that Uber has that Network effect and it's benefiting wh Mo's business as well so now let's head over to stock unlock really quickly and take a look at some of Uber's metrics here and here we're taking a look at the revenue and we can see that as of the most recent quarter in the trilling 12 months revenue is definitely hitting an all-time high and if we turn on the percent change it actually looks like Uber's revenue is starting to accelerate which is a great thing to see next let's take a look at the company's free cash flow and this is one of the most beautiful free cash flow charts I've ever seen from 201 19 to 2020 Uber's free cash flow was tanking and at one point the company was losing $5 billion per year however since then they have been focusing on profitability and efficiency and they have completely converted to being a free cash flow machine and they have now generated roughly $7 billion in free cash flow in the trailing 12 months and it is clearly continuing to Trend up additionally Uber is expecting its free cash flow to grow by roughly 30% in 2025 and in 2026 so this company is growing its profits substantially as well Uber's total gross bookings are also continuing to hit an all-time high and if we turn on the percent change we can see that it is growing very consistently Uber's Mobility revenue is growing extremely well and hit an all-time high of 25 billion in the trailing 12 months now Uber's delivery Revenue did kind of see a Slowdown in 2023 to 2024 but now we can see that its revenue is starting to re accelerate and I do think that this is good to see as well so now let's discuss Uber's valuation today while the company is trading for a price to free cash flow of about 21.4 in the stock market today even after this rally that the stock has seen which is a free cash flow yield of about 4.7% now in today's market I do not think that this is a very high price to pay at all for a business that is growing its revenues at 20% annually it doubled its free cash flow year-over-year and it seems like they are projecting free cash flow growth of 30% in 2025 and in 2026 so a 21 price multiple for 20% Revenue growth and 30% free cash flow growth I do think is actually very attractive so I can definitely see why Bill Amman is buying this stock and I think that this makes complete sense with his own investment strategy I also ran a very quick discounted cash flow calculation on Uber to see what the market is currently pricing in and to put it very simply the market is pricing in only 10% annual free cash flow growth over the next 5 years and for Uber to maintain a 23 price to free cash flow which I actually think is kind of low for this business I personally think a 20 price to free cash flow is pretty fair and over the next 5 years if Uber can even grow its free cash flow at an annual rate of 15% then the stock could produce a compounded annual growth rate of about 177% over the next 5 years so I do think that there is a pretty good argument that Uber stock is still looking undervalued in the market today and again I think that's why Bill Amman was buying this one now personally I want to do some more research on Uber before I consider taking a position I think that objectively the stock does look quite compelling but I also have to compare Uber versus my convictions that I already own in my portfolio and really have to decide if I want to add another stock to my portfolio I really don't want to continue diversifying and adding more stocks so I am trying to be extremely selective with what goes in my portfolio and I want to make sure that any stock that enters my portfolio increases the overall quality of my portfolio and not lowers it so for those Reasons I'm personally not buying Uber today but it is definitely looking interesting and I do think that there is a strong argument that the stock is undervalued and will not be disrupted by autonomous vehicles so that's going to wrap up the video for today everyone if you did enjoy this video then please remember to leave a like on it and if you're new here and you want to stick around and see more stock market related content like this then please consider subscribing to my channel as well also if you do want to gain access to my personal portfolios and see what I am buying and selling and my entire portfolio allocation and get even more exclusive content from me then consider checking out my patreon my patreon members have been absolutely loving their subscription over there and getting a tremendous amount of value out of it I'll put a link at the top of the description if you want to check it out but with all that being said as always thank you all so much for tuning in and I really hope to see you all again in my next video
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