저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라 CEO 겸 머스크의 DOGE 역할 확대에도 Wood는 머스크의 문제해결 역량을 높이 평가. 저가형 모델(budget car) 출시와 자율주행 서비스의 6월 오스틴 런칭 및 확대가 테슬라 주가 촉매라고 주장. 정부 충전 네트워크 예산 삭감은 테슬라 충전망 활용 측면에서 긍정. AI 분야는 플랫폼형 서비스(팔란티어, GitLab)에 유리하다고 보며 아마존 보유 유지, 엔비디아는 여러 포트폴리오에 보유 중이나 칩 경쟁 심화를 언급. 아마존 용량 제약은 하반기 완화 전망. ARK 펀드의 장기 부진에 대해서는 집중·금리·밸류에이션 장애물이 동력으로 전환됐다고 설명.
다듬은 글
Tesla CEO Elon Musk's role in the Trump administration has grown rapidly since the creation of the Department of Government Efficiency. But as Tesla shares endured one of their worst weeks since the election, investors are wondering whether Musk's role in DOGE is distracting him from Tesla. To discuss this in more detail, we invited Katie Wood, CEO and CIO of Ark Invest.
Katie, it's always nice to see you. Trump, uh, Tesla is still your main asset in the Ark Invest fund, Ark K as we , uh, like to call it. This is his ticker. Um, and, you know, we see Musk being very visible in Washington, but not only that, Time magazine put him on the cover at Trump's desk as a sort of de facto president, if you will.
We've talked before, Katie , about Musk's ability to multitask. But this is another level, Katie, in terms of where he's directing his attention. Does this worry you as an investor? Well , that's interesting. We were at his earnings conference call last week, and I don't think I've ever heard him be more engaged or more deeply immersed in the details when answering analyst questions .
So, as I said before, I think he's a great CEO because he's a problem solver. He finds " bottlenecks", factors that hinder development, and immediately tackles them. And I think he does it very effectively. That is, at the same time, stocks fell sharply. I mean, he may be addressing these issues, but at the same time, we've had a lot of reports that Tesla sales, excuse me, deliveries in places like China and Germany have been down.
Yes. What's happening: The Model Y, the world's best- selling car, is undergoing a refresh cycle. And I can say personally, I was going to buy a Model Y , and at the car dealership they told me: “No-no-no, wait. The entire model will be updated." That was a few months ago, and here we are, where we are.
So I'm glad they told me that, and I think I understand why we're seeing a slight sales lag here. So what will change things, Katie? What catalyst will push stocks higher? Yes. A few points. I think they will release their budget car this year . This will expand access to Tesla cars. Elon always talks about accessibility.
Of course, he's working on it. And, of course, autonomous systems. We believe that Tesla is preparing to launch its autonomous driving service. We know they're going to launch it, they announced a launch in June in Austin, and the only question is how quickly they'll roll it out to other cities, and we think it's going to happen sooner than many people think.
Another headline we saw today: The Trump administration , as predicted or expected, is halting a $5 billion government program to build a national network of charging stations. Is this neutral for Tesla? Is it a negative for Tesla if people have fewer places to charge? Is this beneficial for Tesla as they build their own network?
How do you look at this ? Yes, I think many automakers have already joined the Tesla standard. So why not use Tesla's charging network instead of duplicating the costs with government subsidies on top of that. So I think this will benefit Tesla . I think it will be good for the entire ecosystem. Katie, we're going through reporting season, this mega- trend in AI.
Katie, some companies are reporting results that may be disappointing. I'm curious what you learned this reporting season from looking at these reports and listening to the conference calls. Has anything changed? How do you want to invest, where do you want to put your money in this area of AI? Well, as we know, Palantir has been a huge beneficiary of this reporting season.
I think many people are starting to understand that equipment is, of course, important. The cloud is important. But to justify the ratings they have, there must be beneficiaries beyond that. And we believe that the platform-as-a-service model will take up a growing share of the technology stack , and this is beneficial to companies like Palantir, GitLab, and others that developers are connecting to.
I'm still curious, Katie, why... yes, these companies will benefit. I wonder why you're not investing in hyperscalers, or as we said before, why you're not at Nvidia. I'm curious why you chose this particular path with Palantir and the other companies you mentioned compared to some of the others from the Magnificent Seven, for example.
Well, I think we are present in all of them in our various portfolios. You are asking about ARK, our flagship fund. We own Amazon shares, and we believe, especially after yesterday's report, that cloud technology is a central part of this story. So we really like what they're doing there. We've been worried for some time that agent-based personal assistants could eliminate Amazon from the retail segment, as our personal agents would search for products online themselves.
But, you know, I believe that Amazon has—as they said yesterday—a 14% price advantage over other online shopping sites on average. So we worry less about that , and as you know, we publish our assets and transactions at the end of each day. So, we continue to grow this asset. We hold Nvidia in other portfolios.
We believe that there is huge demand ahead. But , again, listening to yesterday's report from Amazon and other companies, it becomes clear that competition in the chip segment is intensifying. Amazon has two of its own solutions: Graviton and, oh, sorry, Trainium and Inferentia. So competition is increasing on the supply side.
Additionally, as we see with the DeepSeek example, there is a possibility that more large language models will be built on powerful workstations, perhaps with less reliance on the cloud. High-performance workstations require fewer GPUs. Despite all this, these are only secondary factors. We believe that this entire industry will continue to develop dynamically for many years to come.
We are only at the very beginning of this journey, and we are very inspired by it. Katie, regarding Amazon: shares are under pressure today as AWS sales showed no acceleration. As an optimist and shareholder, do you believe that capacity constraints will disappear and the implementation of AI is just beginning?
Yes, we believe that capacity constraints at Amazon will ease in the second half of this year. So, yes. Yes, we believe. How close are we to that agent-based AI future you talked about, where my personal agent searches for and buys things online? We believe this will happen sooner rather than later.
Regarding agentive AI, we see that programmers, for example, can use large AI language models to perform coding tasks, and they are able to complete 80–85% of the work without human intervention. This is just the beginning of agent-based AI, and we believe it will very quickly reach all sectors of the economy.
You know, the cost of AI training is decreasing by 75% every year. The cost of AI output that would be used for such a personal AI shopping assistant falls by 85–95% per year . So, the cost of innovation is falling rapidly, and we expect a wave of new innovations, especially in the field of agent-based AI.
Katie, as I always do before our conversations, I look at the performance of various ETFs, not just ARK, but other companies as well. And I know you prefer to evaluate over longer time frames. So I look at 3, 5, and even 10 years, and on all of these metrics, the underlying ETF, in particular, is lagging behind the S& P 500 index.
We've discussed this before. What do you answer investors and clients when they ask, “Katie, what’s going on?” “When will I get those big profits that these large-scale innovative projects are supposed to bring?” » Well, we've just gone through three major obstacles in the last few years that have now turned into driving forces.
But before I name them, I'll note that over the past 10 years, Morningstar, which ranks all ETFs, has ranked us in the top 7.5% in the mid-cap growth category because we focus on companies with smaller capitalizations than the broad indexes. So over a 10-year period, we are in the top 10%, and that is a good result.
However, what were these three obstacles ? They started right after COVID; The first was the excessive market concentration on the "Magic Six." I think after the effects of COVID and market volatility, people got scared, started valuing cash due to rising interest rates and preferring safer, larger- cap companies.
So, the market expansion that we are now expecting should bring us real benefits. The first obstacle was concentration in markets. The market is starting to expand. We are observing this after the elections. The second obstacle I mentioned was interest rates. We went through a shocking increase in interest rates— 24 times in a little over a year.
All long-term assets were hit hard by this, including bonds, which are considered the safest asset class. They went through some of the worst years in their history. So, concentration, interest rates, and the last hurdle that we faced, especially in early 21 , is that Covid has lifted our stocks to incredible heights in terms of valuation.
We had to work or grow to that mark. During the yen period last year, i.e. last July/August, we saw our portfolios, based on adjusted enterprise value to EBITDA, fall to the market multiple. We worked with S&P to develop this index. So, the problem with the assessment also disappeared. Thus, concentration, interest rates, and valuation have transformed from obstacles into driving forces.
Katie, always good to see you. We discussed a lot in a short period of time. Thank you. Thank you very much.
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