저자: MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
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트럼프 2기 출범 첫날 행정명령으로 시장 불확실성이 커졌으며, 이는 일회성 이벤트가 아닌 장기 변동성 요인이다. 에너지, 이민, 무역, 규제완화, 재정을 핵심 변수로 꼽았다. 미국 경제는 타 지역 대비 상대적으로 강하지만 소득 양극화(K자형 경제) 문제가 있다. 미국 밸류에이션 프리미엄은 당분간 유지될 것으로 보고 액티브·종목 선별 투자를 강조했다. 강달러는 무역정책과 중국·유럽 개혁 여부에 달려 있다고 봤다.
다듬은 글
well the era of trump 2.0 has begun and though risks of reigniting inflation do persist president Trump is inheriting a US economy that's in pretty good shape on his first day in office president Trump injected some uncertainty into that backdrop though signing the most day one executive orders in recent history joining us now we want to bring in Muhammad alaran he is the president of Queens College at Cambridge University also chief economic adviser at alons also alongside Market domination co-host Julie Heyman Muhammad it's great to have you back here on Yahoo finance I'd love just to get your first reaction just in terms of some of the market implications economic implications from the executive orders that were signed yesterday thanks for having me on the market wanted to treat yesterday like um drops Friday or the CPI date which is an event risk and you get the information and you move on what the market is realizing is that this is much more dynamic this will go on for a while and you mentioned what happened in the FX Market that was fascinating because on the first set of trade related comments the dollar weakened quite a bit then we got the second set a few hours later and the Mexican pay so depreciated the Canadian dollar depreciated and the dollar regained half of what it had lost so the message is this is not a one-day event risk both upside and downside this is something that's going to remain with us so far the market likes what it has been hearing but it's early days Mohammad um your point is well taken this is just the beginning of what could be a long four years for the markets in the next say 100 days obviously that's usually a period that people watch closely what are you going to be watching most closely what's going to be most pivotal for markets so five areas some we know already so energy is really important and that we've heard a very clear message from the president about drilling immigration is a second issue because that impacts the labor market and to what extent are we going to see the repatriation of illegal immigrants and how does that impact the labor market so that's the second one trade of course and we are early days if anybody in China or Europe is relieved I tell them just wait it's early days so we need to see what happens on tariffs deregulation and fiscal so five areas all of which have a significant impact on earnings on the economy and will influence how the market behaves Muhammad you recently um wrote in the financial times about many things among them that one of the things that propelled Donald Trump to this second term as president is sort of the economic dispersion in the United States the idea that the economy as we showed coming into you is on pretty good footing but it did not benefit everyone equally um from what we have seen seen from this Administration in the first day and from what you're expecting do you think that's going to change do you think that the measures that Donald Trump has expected to implement are going to go to the heart of that issue that got him into office yeah I mean the issue of dispersion or what a lot of people are called the k-shaped economy where the rich are doing better but the poor continue to struggle um that was very well understood by President Trump and that is the reason why the electorate didn't appreciate the economic exceptionalism that everybody talks about that is you strong us growth because the benefits of that growth were not shared widely and if you're at the bottom of the household income distribution you've run down your pandemic savings you've maxed out your credit cards and you're insecure you're financially insecure president Trump understood this much better than the Democrats the Democrats never were never able to address that issue in a man that allowed them to get credit for the overall economic performance so there's full awareness in the Trump administration of this issue there's a promise that um they will address it and that's why the details of the fiscal are going to be so important as with other parts of the policy but it is fully understood by President Trump because it has it has helped Propel him back to the White House and so what we've heard Muhammad is that there will be a golden age of America will that golden age of America then extend into the income cohorts that have not felt like they've been in a golden age even if we do see an extension of the tax cuts and jobs act in in a 2.0 fashion it must if if we are going to have a golden age there has to be trickle better trickle down and I hate that word but better trickle down to the lwi income people you cannot run an economy with k-shaped characteristics for a long time just like at some point we have to worry about the Bad and the Ugly of the global economy you've heard me say this the good of the global economy is the US the bad is China the ugly is Europe these are the three major economic areas and there's massive Divergence as well there the US is outpacing the other two the IMF revised its global economic outlook for 2025 guess what it took the US growth rate up by half a percentage Point s enormous amount for for a large economy and it took down Germany and France so these two issues are going to be key one can he address internal diversion between the rich and the poor and two can he convince China and Europe to get the act together so that we don't get this external dispersion because either we're going to level up the global economy or we're going to level down the global economy and leveling up is a hell of a lot better than leveling down Muhammad what strategy then should investors adopt then in response to that economic Divergence and where does that leave the US relative to the rest of the world so I think you need to embrace three things one is volatility this is going to be a volatile year because of all sorts of things going on the second is dispersion take dispersion seriously we're going to see it across countries we're going to see it within countries and and also within sectors and then the third element is is to understand that we've gone from an investment approach that was Market based to a second one was that was theme based and now we going to much more name specific based and that's really important because if you're simply a passive investor you didn't gain much when the when we went from Market based to theme based but you're going to lose even more when we go from theme based to name specific so so that implies then that this needs to be an age of more active management more of a a stock Pickers kind of environment yeah in a perfect world it's much more active manager it's much more name specific if you can and and many cannot you should combine public with private opportunities in private opportunities you can structure exposures much better so so this is going to be increasingly building portfolio is from the bottom up and not just from the top down and and what does it imply you were just talking about how the US is still on the strongest footing there has been some increasing chatter though about whether investors maybe should be looking elsewhere either to develop or emerging markets for example this morning in the Wall Street journals heard on the street column they talked a lot about valuations and the gap between the US and the rest of the world is at an unusually wide level right and maybe that creates some opportunities do you think that's how investors should be thinking about it also Julie I'll give you the same answer I've been giving you for years it will be at at some stage but it's not now there's a reason why we've had this valuation Gap the US is a much more Dynamic economy its growth is outpacing other major markets it controls more of its Destiny it's not as vulnerable Europe for example to energy issues it's not as vulnerable to merging markets to currenc moves and then finally ask yourself who is investing in the growth drivers of Tomorrow who is seriously taking AI Life Sciences defense Health Care most of the investment in that is happening in the US why because it's led by a handful of large companies that are us companies so when I look at all this yes valuation differences are large but I suspect they'll get larger before we start having the convergence trade that people have been calling for as you know for years now and it hasn't been a good call Muhammad you mentioned the active management the perhaps stock picking even of some of the winners and themes that investors should be leaning further into but does that and after we had seen some of the tech CEOs that had exposure in one form or another to generative Ai and their company's Investments there does that mean that there's going to be a deceleration in the type of return that we see from some of the generative AI or AI focused companies that have had a lot of capital to deploy and investors being able to just kind of set it and forget it into those stocks so I think we're still looking at positive returns but not as positive as what we've seen um you know there's an old phrase that a friend of mine at pimpo used to say you can't go to heaven twice on the same deed so you know the markets have understood the amount of innovation going on theyve understood how impactful that's going to be for productivity um and there's been a ton of money that has gone there so it's become a bit of a crowded trade however it still has upside and I think more generally we've had two years of returns of over 20% for the S&P I think we have to be realistic that it's not often that you get three years of over 20% I think the prospects are still good but we shouldn't be Hostage to two exceptional years Mohammad I also want to ask a little more about the US dollar uh because obviously as you mentioned currencies have been very reactive to the headlines about tariffs and sort of underlying that or in the background is this debate about is a strong dollar better or worse for the US I guess I would ask you what does strong dollar mean what is the magic level for where the dollar should be that it sort of balances the pros and the cons so you know that at some point the dollar can be too strong because you start getting the implication first it erodes domestic competitiveness and because of that it becomes a political issue second strong dollars tend to break things elsewhere particularly in Emerging Markets who have borrowed in dollars but generate income in local currency so they have What's called the original sin and the stronger the dollar gets the more the more have to generate and the harder they find it to generate and it and the list goes on so what we'd like to have is a stable dollar but getting there means that other countries have to get the act together if Europe continues to lag if China continues to lag then the pressure will be on the dollar to get stronger so ultimately the key issue is going to be for China and Europe to do the sorts of reforms that they need in order to grow at a at a faster rate and then take off the pressure which is pushing the dollar stronger Mohamad how do you see Market sentiment evolving then given the risk and maybe the likelihood then of that stronger dollar um it's ultimately going to be a race a race between the realities of what it what president Trump inherits and the extent to which certain policies could make things more complicated for example tariffs will push the dollar stronger against on the other side something that the markets have embraced for good reason which is his deregulation and liberalization approach so it's going to be a race to see which of the two sides the market right now are betting on the deregulation and liberalization horse they think that this this horse will outpace the others and we will see how that plays up and Muhammad finally just quickly given all that we've been talking about on balance is this presidency of Donald Trump a greater risk or benefit to the market and to the economy um it is seen as a greater benefit because it is seen as as unleashing business and unleashing US business so I buy that I I understand why the markets are so enthusiastic but we shouldn't underestimate that he inherits some pretty difficult issues we talked about internal and external Divergence we talk we haven't even talked about geopolitics and the extent to which that really hasn't impacted markets hasn't impacted the economy because of the strength of the US economy but geopolitics are out there so he inherits challenges but he also but the market clearly is betting on him unleashing us business in a way that not only will secure a better outcome for the us but will attract Capital um and have sort of a leverage effect in terms of benefits Muhammad thanks so much for taking the time here with us before the opening bell this morning we really appreciate it and thank you Julie Heyman host of Market domination for joining us this morning as well
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