저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
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CPI·PPI가 예상보다 양호해 채권금리 하락과 증시 상승이 나타남. 다만 서비스 인플레이션이 끈적해 연준 금리인하는 당분간 어려울 것으로 봄. 10년물 4.5% 수준은 편안하다고 평가하며 채권자경단 위험은 여전히 유효하나 트럼프 재정정책 구체안을 지켜봐야 한다고 봄. 생산성 붐으로 2% 인플레이션 복귀 가능성을 언급. 강세장은 밸류에이션보다 실적 중심으로 이어질 것이며 기술·금융·산업재 비중확대를 유지. 현재 기술주 밸류가 높지만 1990년대 말 버블 재현은 아니라고 봄.
다듬은 글
the Bulls roaring back on Wall Street thanks to Strong Bank results and core inflation growth slowing last month on the flip side the yield on the 10e sliding roughly 14 basis points on the day for more on the latest Market action let's welcome in now Ed yardeni yardeni research president Ed always good to see you so you know you wear two hats Ed Economist and strategist so let's start with your role as the former as an economist I am curious to get your take on that CPI report we got today and what did you make of it what do you think the FED makes of it well it it was very good news the Top Line in yesterday's PPI and today's CPI were better than expected uh but still there's still some sticky areas of uh both uh inflation rates in the services area so I think it's still keeps the FED on on pause uh I don't know that they've officially announced pause but I think the markets have figured out that the FED probably won't be lowering interest rates anytime soon and meanwhile the bond market loved that inflation number because I guess there's a lot of fear that it would be a hot number we thought it might be on the hot side and so there must have been a lot of short covering in the bond market maybe some players thinking we're going to go to 5% and we didn't do that we we're very comfortable with the bond yield being around four and a half percent uh sort of on a trend longterm basis so we have no problems with what's going on in the bond market and then of course uh as you folks just mentioned that turned out to be very good news for the stock market Market overall um but how sustainable is this it I guess you know because we had been seeing yields creep up and up and up you know today was just one one report is that inflation demon vanquished uh no I don't think it's it's vanquished not if the target is 2% and the FED has made it very clear that for the sake of their credibility they intend to get inflation down to 2% I just think they got a little bit uh too uh confident that uh if they uh lowered rates that inflation will continue to decline towards their 2% and there's some some areas where that's just not the case we're not at 2% on the inflation rate and we're not there on a sustainable basis so there could still be some issues here we know that energy prices uh pushed up the December number and they'll do the same for January uh we know that food prices can be uh volatile so no we're not out of the uh the woods when it comes to getting get inflation down to 2% but we're awfully close so I don't know that the markets basically says well it's close enough and uh meanwhile the economy is looking good earnings are great the financials are doing extremely well so it's kind of a roaring 2020 sort of day today when do we get back to that 2% ad I'm just curious as you try to model out a possible timeline what does it look like well we're big Believers that productivity growth is making a big comeback here we think we're in a productivity growth boom as a result of all the technological innovations that can help augment the productivity of of workers and so uh if we don't do it uh later this year I think we'll see 2% uh uh inflation next year Ed going back to yields for a second uh I did want to bring up a term that we have noticed popping up a lot in interviews we've been talking about fixed income and that is the return of the bond vigilante it's a term that you coined back in the ' 80s the defition for those who don't know is investors who sell government bonds in response to fiscal policies that they view as inflationary which would then drive up borrowing costs for the government so there's a lot of talk about this incoming Administration about its fiscal policy being potentially spendy and what that's going to mean if that's going to augur the return of the Bond vigilantes what do you think well I think it's still a relevant risk I mean it certainly looked like a more relevant risk a couple of days ago uh but you know markets will be volatile on a shortterm basis I think there's still a lot of concern in the bond market about uh undisciplined fiscal and monetary policy I think the fact that the FED lowered rates by 100 basis points and the bond yield went up 100 basis points was a clear indication that the bond vigilante so-called um just didn't agree with what the Fed was doing and the interpretation I got was that the bond market was basically saying that the Fed was stimulating an economy that didn't need to be stimulated so that's uh that's kind of what where the Bond vigilantes are but uh you know at some point the the yield becomes very attractive here and you get to four and three quarters anything close to 5% is something that people want to lock in and just the fact that many people were waiting for 5% frustrated them because they're apparently not going to get it today certainly but yeah that it's still a problem and and and I I think the jur is out the bond market the bond vilanis want to see how the Trump Administration is going to put together all the pieces of their proposal in a way that U gets us some relief on the deficit Outlook uh and I think the last time we spoke to you I I was asking you you know what what sectors you wanted to be overweight I think uh Ed it was it was technology financials uh Industrials would you still want to be overweight those sectors here yeah absolutely uh they're not cheap uh they've already been in a great bull market but uh their earnings uh Outlook remains very strong and U so I I think from here on the bull market continues on earnings and less on on valuation um and again I think we we got a glimpse of that today when better than expected earning from the financials drove their stock prices higher that's what I'm expecting um and when we look ahead to earning season here which of course we're just starting to get into um what are you sort of most focused on what do you think is going to be most important for investors to watch for well I actually thought today and tomorrow the the financials would be most important because uh to really uh get a sustainably strong bull market it's uh very very uh helpful to have a strong financial sector and that's what we have uh for sure um I think uh we need to increasingly convince investors that even though valuations are high in the tech area this is not going to be a repeat of the late 1990s in early 2000 the tech bubble followed by the tech wreck I don't think that's what we're looking at I think we're looking at earnings continuing to March higher for Tech communication Services uh Industrials uh because I think the US economy is is on uh on on course for a productivity boom based on the technologies that are available to accomplish that Ed great to see you as always thanks so much a pleasure thank you thank you
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