저자: DanielPronk · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리가 2분기 13F에서 구글·메타·글로벌페이먼츠·부킹 등 보유 종목을 대부분 매도한 것으로 나타났다. 버리는 나스닥이 20% 반등한 것은 2000년대 초 약세장 랠리와 같은 패턴이라며 추가 하락을 경고한 것으로 해석된다. 2008년 3월 나스닥·S&P500의 반등 패턴과 비교하며 약세장 랠리 가능성을 제기했다. 발표자는 버리가 1분기에 해당 종목들을 매수했다가 2분기에 청산한 점을 들어 그가 장기 투자자가 아닌 매크로 트레이더가 되었다고 평가했다. 구글은 영업현금흐름 대비 주가 약 16.8배로 과거 10년 평균(약 18배)보다 낮고, 메타는 약 8.3배로 역사적 최저 수준이라 저평가로 봤다. 부킹은 약 18.2배로 적정가치 수준이라고 했다. GPN은 영업현금흐름이 역대 최고치여서 펀더멘털이 좋으며 싸지 않다고 평가했다. 발표자 본인은 구글·메타를 보유 중이며 정액분할매수를 이어가고 있고, 버리를 따라 전량 매도하는 것은 실수라고 주장했다. 장기 투자자는 단기 시장 타이밍에 휘둘리지 말아야 하며, 투자 목표와 전략이 다른 사람의 매매를 기준으로 판단해서는 안 된다고 강조했다. 발표자는 저평가 종목 발굴 채널과 페이퍼 포트폴리오(100만 달러 챌린지) 성과를 소개했다.
다듬은 글
Michael bur is one of the most followed investors because he predicted the global financial crisis of 2008 and he has recently been saying that the stock market is going through another massive bare Market Michael bur also released his 13f filing today and in it we can see that Michael bur basically sold off his entire portfolio he sold his positions like Google meta Global Payments and booking Holdings and you can see right here that he sold 100% of his positions if we take a look at his overall activity for the second quarter we can see that there was only one stock that he has been buying and that is geog grp and it's about a $3 million position other than this one position GE group again Michael bu has sold literally every other stock he owns and it's 100% of the Holdings so it looks like he is very very bearish on the overall market right now and in this video we are going to talk about why Michael bu is so bearish on the market right now and why he is selling off literally like 99% of his portfolio so right here I have a tweet from Michael bur and this says NASDAQ a bull market because it is up 20% off its lows who makes this stuff up after 2000 the NASDAQ did that seven times as it fell 78% to its 2002 low so you guys may have been hearing recently that people are saying we're in a new bull market in the NASDAQ because it's rallied over 20% now and people are basically saying that well you know the market has bottomed with the bottom is is in Michael bu clearly in this tweet as saying no during the 2000 Tech bubble the NASDAQ rallied over 20% seven times before finally bottoming 78% down from its all-time highs in 2002 so he is basically saying that this this rally that we're currently in is nothing more than a bare Market rally and it looks like he is selling into it so let's head over here to stock unlock let's take a look at the NASDAQ 100 and right here we can see that in March well March 9th of uh 2008 the NASDAQ was at about $1,668 and we can clearly see that it rallied about 22% before finally falling all the way down here to the bottom in what was this like 2009 March of 2009 and falling another like 30% this is the exact same price action if we go and take a look at the S&P 500 and we zoom into about 2008 here we can see that right here in March of uh 20 8 the S&P 500 rallied about 12% or over 10% which is kind of the same price action we're seeing today so again it clearly seems like at least to me that Michael bur is saying that this is nothing more than a bare Market rally and that there are further lows that the market is overall going to see and he's taking this bare Market rally as an opportunity to basically liquidate his entire portfolio selling out of 100% of his Google meta positions and everything like that what is also really interesting to note is that in the first quarter of 2022 Michael bu was buying Google he was buying booking he was buying gpn and he was buying um meta right here so literally in the first quarter of 2022 he was buying all of these stocks and now in the second quarter he's liquidated all of them that is why I am saying you know he is taking this as a bare Market rally and nothing more and he's liquidated his entire portfolio however personally I think that a lot of these stocks in Michael bur's port folio we're looking cheap he is a value investor and he does know how to find Value and Michael bur actually says that Warren Buffett is one of his icons one of his mentors so let's head over to stock an alock here very quickly let's head over to our free form tool and let's take a quick look at Google and we are going to take a look at Google's price to operating cash flow and we can see right here that over the past decade from 2012 Google's average price to operating cash flow has been nearly 18 and right now it is selling at 16.
77 so in terms of Google's price to operating cash flow over the past decade it's selling below its historical averages and recently it was selling as low as 14.5 so personally again as an investor in Google I don't think that Google is overvalued right now I think that it's probably selling for about fair value right now and I think that this company has massive Tailwinds behind it and it's going to grow for literally decades to come if we take a look at meta now meta's price to operating cash flow is like 8.3 it's literally the lowest it's pretty much ever been in meta's history and I think that you know meta is going to have a great future I think that this business has Tailwinds behind it I do believe in the VR and AR that meta is investing in and the metaverse so right now with a price to operating cash flow of only eight I do think that this stock is looking quite cheap this is the exact same story for booking there is this massive rally in Global Travel right now and if we just modify this chart right here on stock unlock we can see that bookings price to operating cash flow right now is about 18.2 and over the past decade it's been about fair value for booking we can see that it's actually traded well below or well above a priced operating cash flow of 18 and it's been as high as 24 and 2017 so when I take a look at the underlying fundamentals of these businesses and their prices right now it doesn't look like these ones that Michael bur is selling are overvalued or overly expensive and let's take a look at gpn now and let's take a look at gpn n's operating cash flow let's just graph that here in stock unlock and we can see that gpn's operating cash flow is literally sitting at an all-time high so the fundamentals and the underlying fundamentals and the underlying cash flow of this business have never been better and you know I just don't think that it's really that cheap so when I take a look under the hood of these businesses and I take a look at their value they do look quite valuable right now and I actually own meta and I own Google and I have been dollar cost averaging them throughout the second quarter of of 2022 or in my opinion I just think that Michael bur is straight up timing the market now and he's trading the market and I think that he's basically just become a macro Trader and he thinks that the overall Market is going to continue coming down now time will tell how that plays out but what's important here is to understand that Michael bu is being a Trader so for me as a long-term investor who plans on Investing For You know the next 30 Years hopefully I just want a dollar cost average and I just want to continue dollar cost averaging I'm not trying to time the market as an investor and I'm just focusing on the longterm and investing in businesses that I believe I can hold over the next 30 Years I don't know if Google is going to come back down or get even cheaper if it does I'm going to be there to dollar cost average it I'm going to increase my position but I again I just think that it's important to know you know who you're listening to or who you're taking advice from because a lot of people are following Michael bu right now in this market and a lot of people are paying attention to what he has to say so if you're going to pay attention to him just know that this guy is straight up becoming a macro Trader and he's making trades based on macro I mean think about it he bought all of those positions basically in the first quarter of 2022 and now he's liquidated all of them within the next 3 to 6 months so yeah you know you just got to pay attention to that and if you've read the psychology of money I have some notes over here and in the psychology of money it warns that there are many different types of people in the market with many different goals and many different strategies there can be people that even own the same stocks as you that have just just vastly different goals and vastly different strategies and and you have to know that you have to know let's take me for example I own meta and I own Google and I have to realize that Michael bur is becoming a macr Trader and he's not really becoming a long-term investor by making these moves at least in my own opinion I think that he's focusing on the short term I do not think that he's focusing on the next decade I think he's focusing on like the next 6 months to a year to two years to 3 years that's not long-term investing in my opinion even though he owned the same stocks as me for a brief period there it doesn't mean that he has the same goals the same intentions or the same Outlook as me and as a long-term investor again I have to realize that which means that I'm not going to place too much weight on what Michael bur is doing right now because again his goals and everything are totally different than my own and his strategy clearly is definitely different than my own strategy so personally I'm not taking too much weight on what Michael bur is doing right now I think it's interesting to pay attention to the guy because he has been right in the past but right now I'm not going to go and liquidate my entire portfolio personally I think that would be a mistake for myself and I think that would be a mistake for a lot of long-term dollar cost average investors because it would ruin our habits it would ruin our consistency and then we would have to think you know when's the time to enter back into the market then we would have to time the bottom and we would have to try and buy back all of our positions you know at a massive discount also I think that there are a lot of very valuable and cheap stocks in this market my channel here I'm basically dedicated now out to trying and finding undervalued stocks in any Market condition and that's what my channel again is dedicated to and I do believe that there is a ton of value out there I even made a $1 million portfolio challenge where I track the stocks that I would buy If I Had a Million Dollars it is a paper portfolio but it's a research project to show that I think there are stocks out there that can outperform the market and a few of those positions in that portfolio that I have um are up 50% or 40% plus there's many well there's a handful that are up over 30% there's a few that are up 40 and I think there's one or two that are up 50% so I mean take this as you will you guys but as a long-term investor again I'm just not putting too much weight on Michael bur I'm not going to be selling my entire portfolio and let me know what you guys are doing down in the comment section below let me know what you think of Michael bur do you guys think that he's just turning into a Trader do you think that he's right again I would just love to hear all of your comments down in the comment section but that's going to wrap up the video everyone thank you so much for watching today's video If you enjoyed it please remember to leave a like and if you're interested in the stock analysis and educational platform that I use here on my channel it is stock un the loock and you can get a 7day free trial for free just by entering in your email if you're interested in checking out the platform but that's going to wrap everything up for me today you guys so thank you again so much for watching I truly do appreciate it and I hope you guys are having a great day and I'll see you all in my next video
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