저자: DanielPronk · 외국인
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버크셔해서웨이가 3분기 13F에서 애플·뱅크오브아메리카 등을 대량 매도하고 현금을 3,250억 달러로 늘림. 워런 버핏의 매도는 주가 폭락 예측이 아니라 기회 부족과 채권 대비 낮은 수익률(애플 FCF 수익률 약 3%) 때문이라고 해석. 뱅크오브아메리카는 만기보유자산 미실현손실 문제로 위험 축소 가능성 제기. 도미노피자·풀코프는 밸류에이션이 비싸 매수에 동의하지 않음. 개인투자자는 현금을 많이 쌓을 필요가 없다는 입장.
다듬은 글
every quarter birkshire hathway is required to release its 13f filing to the public which shows us what Warren Buffett has been buying and selling in the stock market this quarter was absolutely shocking as it revealed that Buffett is continuing to sell stocks at a rapid rate and build the cash position of Burkshire hathway in fact Burkshire is now sitting on $325 billion of cash which is equivalent to 32% of Burg shar's total market cap to put this in perspective burshire could currently buy PayPal shop Adobe Coca-Cola AMD or McDonald's in cash if it wanted to it's an absolutely absurd amount of cash to be sitting on and many are saying that the fact that Buffett is sitting on so much cash means that he is thinking there will be a stock market crash sometime soon so in today's video I want to discuss the top stocks that Buffett is buying and selling now and if I think investors should be following him by selling stocks and building their cash positions as well but before we get into the video I just want to let you all know that stock unlock is currently having a 25% off Black Friday sale so if you have been waiting to check out stock unlock then there's no better time than now because you can get a yearly subscription for only $563 per month when you buy an annual subscription that is ridiculous value since you can track your portfolio dividend payments and quickly identify good and bad stocks with our fundamentals focused scoring system so don't wait and go and save 25% on your subscription now and with that being said let's now hop into today's video so here we have all of the buys and sells that Buffett has been making in the third quarter of 2024 and we can see that birkshire has added to three positions however the net total amount of Buys in the portfolio was only 0.27% and at the same time there were some pretty massive sells for example Buffett reduced his Apple position by another 25% in the quarter by selling 100 million shares which was a sale of about 8.75% of the total portfol he also reduced his Bank of America position by 22.78% and sold 235 million shares which was a total change in the portfolio of 3.5% so Buffett sold over 10% of his portfolio in the quarter and is moving a lot more into cash and trimming down a significant amount of his positions now the first stock that I want to discuss is Bank of America because I think that this is a very interesting sell for Buffett and it's a brand new sell as well because historically Bank of America has been birkshire second largest position and I wasn't actually expecting him to start selling off this position anytime soon so first off let's discuss why Buffett bought Bank of America in the first place all the way back in 2011 so right here I have a screenshot from Warren Buffett's 2011 Burkshire letter to shareholders where he discusses the Bank of America purchase and this says finally we made two major investments in marketable Securities one a 5 billion 6% preferred stock of Bank of America that came with warrants allowing us to buy 700 million shares at $714 per share anytime before September 2nd 2021 now if we go and take a look at Bank of America's stock this was all the way back here when Bank of America was falling off of a cliff and in a massive correction and since then the stock is now up over 560 so Buffett has made a significant return on this investment however it does seem like he is now starting to trim the position down if we also take a look at Bank of America's Price to Book ratio we can see that it did hit a low in 11 of 0.223 and today the stock is now trading for a Price to Book of about 1.23 so the price to book has massively expanded and now Bank of America is actually selling for a premium over its Equity value however I do not believe that Buffett is selling off his Bank of America position just because the price to book is slightly higher at 1.2 now because back here in 2021 for example Bank of America was trading for a Price to Book of 1.4 and Buffett held on to the stock so I don't I think that this is a valuation thing and I think that maybe the thesis for Buffett has actually changed on Bank of America so I did some more research and I found that the unrealized losses for US Banks have been increasing due to higher interest rates and in the second quarter of 2024 the unrealized losses hit $513 billion this is seven times higher than at the peak of the 2008 financial crisis now obviously unrealized losses are not real losses until the asset is sold and the theory is that these banks have something called hold to maturity assets which basically means that they're not actually looking to sell these assets or lock in these losses anytime soon they're holding them until they mature but what's interesting is I found this tweet right here that says Bank of America the second largest lender in the United States now accounts for $110.8 billion of the held to maturity Securities with unrealized losses or 20% of the total so Bank of America alone has 20% of the unrealized losses in the US banking sector on their balance sheet and to me this looks like a massive future potential risk and this could also be why Buffett is now trimming down his Bank of America position to further elaborate on what H to maturity Securities are this says held to maturity Securities are debt Securities that will be held by the company until the debt matures therefore unrealized gains and losses will not be recognized in the financial statements because they do not Mark to Market at the end of the period so the reason that we're not seeing these losses appear on Bank of America's income statement is because since they are hold to maturity assets they don't actually have to report the losses until they are realized because again Bank of America is hoping to hold these assets until they eventually run off think of it like a 30-year bond that pays a 2% interest rate the price of the bond May fluctuate with interest rates over the years but if you plan to just hold on to the bond until it's over then you don't experience any losses you would only experience a loss if you had to sell the bond early now what's interesting is in the 2023 birkshire meeting Buffett had two cards that said available for sale and held to maturity he then discussed how he thinks the banking industry regulations are just totally crazy now in the United States and that if people think deposits are still sticky then they are living in a different era you can now click a button and take all of your money out of your bank account which means that Bank can have a bank run within just a few seconds now why this could be an issue is because if a lot of people decide to take out their money out of the banks all at once then the banks will be forced to sell their held to maturity assets and to realize hundreds of billions of dollars in losses basically if deposits start flowing out of banks at a fast pace then the banks will have to sell assets to find the liquidity to give people their money this would result in massive losses for banks and with Bank of America having 20% of the unrealized losses it means they're sitting on a significant amount of risk Buffett then said in the 2023 Burkshire meeting that he has kept on to Bank of America because he was the one that proposed the deal back in 2011 so if he sells the stock then he kind of views it as him backing out on the deal he made but he then admits that he doesn't know how to project Bank of America's earnings in the future now which suggests that this investment is extremely unpredictable and specul ative however what Warren Buffett values above everything else is protecting shareholders and with Bank of America being such a large position for birkshire I think it's clear that he has finally decided to reduce berkshire's risk towards Bank of America and for all of these reasons I believe this is why he is trimming down his Bank of America position so now let's talk about Warren Buffett selling off his Apple position and over the past two quarters he has now sold 490 million shares of Apple worth roughly $100 billion so he is massively cutting down his Apple position and I believe it's been cut in over half now from what it was just a couple of quarters ago now if we go and take a look at Apple we can see that the stock is trading right near all-time highs of about $234 per share we can also see that the price to free cash flow is now sitting at basically 33 which is a free cash flow yield of only 3% which is not a very high yield for this stock here we can also see that Apple's revenues and free cash flows have also compounded by about 8% annually over the past decade however over the past few years Apple's revenues and cash flows haven't actually been growing and therefore a 33 price to free cash flow for a business where the revenues are not currently growing and over the past decade they have only compounded at 8% in my opinion is a very high price for this business and I do think that Apple stock is pretty overvalued today if we take a look at the price to free cash flow that Apple was trading for when Buffett first bought it it was about 8 .4 now this is a free cash flow yield of about 12% and again now the stock is trading for a price of free cash flow of about 33 and a three free cash flow yield Apple's price to free cash flow ratio has also compounded at 16.6% annually since 2006 and this is where the majority of the share price returns have actually come from is simply from multiple expansion and with Warren Buffett being the best investor who's ever lived you have to know that he is also taking a look these metrics right here and basically coming to the conclusion that apple is no longer as cheap as it once was and it does look like it is very expensive a 3.3% free cash flow yield is also below what risk-free government bonds are yielding today which means that apple is offering less returns than simply buying bonds additionally apple is using almost all of its free cash flow to buy back shares at a very high price which shows that the management doesn't know how to invest the money at high rates of return anymore so to me it's very clear why Warren Buffett is exiting his Apple position its price is pretty high the capital allocation is not really that great anymore and he could be getting a higher return by simply buying bonds instead and for all of those reasons I believe that he is selling apple and moving this position more So Into Cash all right so now let's discuss a couple of the buys that Burkshire has been doing in the quarter as well and the first one is dpz or Domino's Pizza and I have been asked quite a few times to take a look into this business to see if it is looking interesting and like a buy today so let's head back over to stock unlock and take a look now first off right here we can see that back in 2008 Domino's Pizza was trading for $438 which means that this stock is now officially a 100 bger and has produced returns of 10,000% since the Great Recession so what I'd like to do is take a look at Domino's Revenue growth since 2008 when the stock was selling for only $4 a share and here we can see that the revenue surprisingly has only compounded at about 8% annually since 2008 however we can see that its net income has compounded by about 16.2% annually so obviously this company's net margin has been expanding over the past what would that be now 16 years we can also see that revenue is at an all-time high and net income is also sitting right near an all-time high however since about 2021 Domino's net income has been growing quite a bit more slowly as we can clearly see right here so if we zoom in to about 2021 right here we can see that Domino's net income has only been compounding by about 4% annually which really isn't that much growth Domino's is also trading for a price to earnings ratio of 28.3 today which surprisingly is below the company's long-term average price earnings ratio of 30 but in my opinion a 28p for 4% net income growth really isn't that exciting and it does suggest to me that this stock is looking quite expensive as well I simply think that there are a lot better stocks in in the market that are growing faster and trading for lower price multiples so I don't necessarily agree with this purchase from birkar and in my opinion I do think that Domino's is looking quite expensive in the market today and again I simply think that there are better stocks out there all right so now let's talk about the next bigger buy which was pool or pool cor so let's head back over to stock unlock and take a look so back in 1995 this was an 87 C stock which means that over the past about 30 years now the stock is a 4 100 beggar and is up 4,000% so the historical returns of pool are absolutely incredible so let's go and take a look at pool's financials as well and I want to zoom out all the way to about 2002 and here we can see that pool's revenue is currently in a downtrend and is declining now the last time that this happened was all the way back in the Great Recession in 2008 where the company's Revenue was clearly declining as well so pool's Revenue seems like it is currently facing a headwind and maybe this is because consumers are a little bit more constrained right now and they're not really building as many pools and maintaining their pools I guess anyways the main takeaway is that pool's revenue is currently declining now if we also take a look at pool's net income we can see that it is declining pretty massively its all-time high was $780 million in the third quarter of 2022 and now it's all the way back down to 446 million and once again we can see that during the Great Recession pool's net income was also declining quite significantly so now let's take a look at pool's price to earnings ratio versus its history so today it is trading for a PE of 32.3 which is actually above its long-term historical average of about 28 which is still a pretty high price to earnings ratio for this business as well but in my opinion a 32 pric earnings ratio for a business where the revenues and net income is currently declining is a very high price to pay and again I think that there are a lot more better stocks that are much more attractive in the market today what's also interesting to note is the last time that pool's revenues and earnings were declining again all the way back in 2008 and in 2009 the company's priced to earnings ratio was all the way down at 10.5 which in my opinion is much more reflective of a business where the revenues and earnings are declining so a price to earnings ratio of 30 today again is much higher than what I think is fair for this business and it's significantly higher than the PE that the stock was trading for the last time that its revenue and earnings were declining so overall I'm not too interested in this one I don't really see the valuation standpoint of pool Corp in the market right now and I do think that it is a pretty expensive stock so the last thing that I want to discuss in this video is whether or not Buffett is preparing for a recession a stock market crash and if investors should be building cash as well so my opinion is that I don't think Buffett is a proxy for the average investor anymore I mean think about it this guy is working with hundreds of billions of dollars of cash now which means that his investable universe or the amount of stocks that he can actually deploy the capital that birsh has into is probably less than 50 across the entire world or in other words Buffett's investable Universe now is maybe 50 companies whereas our investable universe as individual investors is literally tens of thousands of stocks across the entire world basically what I'm trying to say is if Buffett was working with a million dollars today I think that he still would be fully invested in stocks and I think that he would be finding interesting opportunities the fact that birkshire has so much cash now just means that Buffett isn't finding opportunities within the 50 stocks that he can even take a look at so again I don't think that what Buffett is doing is what every investor should be doing and for myself I definitely am not sitting on that much cash right now and I'm happily continuing to buy stocks in the market I also don't think that Buffett is preparing for some sort of stock market crash and I don't think that him having a large positioning cash means that a means that a stock market crash is coming if you read the historical birkshire letters to shareholders it's very clear that Buffett does not try to time the market and he does not make any macro predictions however what he does is he responds to where the best value is within the markets always so for example we saw that Apple stock has about a 3% free cash flow yield right now now when Buffett is taking a look at that that's essentially the return that investors can get from Apple's cash flows and then when he looks at a Government Bond offering above 4% it's very clear that bonds are offering a higher risk-free return than Apple's stock and this is quite literally how Buffett thinks about investing he's always looking at the yield on one asset versus the yield on another asset and again I would strongly recommend reading the Burkshire letters to shareholders because he does explain this thinking in depth so what I'm trying to say here is he's simply looking at where is he getting the best Returns versus risk on his Investments and right now apple looks like it is not yielding a very high risk reward especially versus risk-free Investments like bonds and that's why he is moving his money into cash I don't think that he's preparing for a stock market crash or anything like that I think he's just trying to do what he believes is best for creating shareholder value over at birkshire and right now more shareholder value is being created by investing in bonds than by investing in Apple stock or at least that is what is saying with his investment moves so with all that being said that is going to wrap up the video for today everyone and once again I would strongly recommend going and checking out stock unlock right now because we do have that 25% off sale going on and we don't do this very often so if you have been waiting to check out stock unlock and you do want to save some money then there's no better time than right now also if you did enjoy the video and you found it helpful in some way then please remember to leave a like on it as it does help out my channel and I do appreciate it and if you're new here and you want to stick around and see more content like this then please consider sub subscribing to my channel as well but with that being said as always I truly appreciate you guys tuning in and I hope to see you all again in my next video
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