저자: Kevin · 외국인
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미국 주택시장이 2022년 8월 기준 거래 감소(투자자 매입 4개월 연속 하락), 가격 인하 매물 급증, 중개사 취소 증가로 약세 전환 조짐이라고 주장. 주택 구매력은 2006년 이후 최저 수준이며 모기지 금리 상승이 원인. 공포가 번지면 가격 하락이 가속될 수 있고 내년 초 이후가 매수 기회라고 강조. 동시에 부동산 교육 강의·중개사 교육·대출 상담 연결을 적극 홍보함.
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this video is brought to you by this prayer potion from old school RuneScape no actually it's brought to you by me because if you're clueless about real estate and you're interested in the transition happening well there's some programs linked down below that could finally make you real estate Wealthy by buying real estate under market value coupon code expires August 26th hey everyone me Kevin here the housing market has started to feel like it's been straight up since about 2011 and the fact of the matter is it has been if someone bought a fixer home in 2011 for 305 000 with a little under twenty thousand dollars down they would have seen that little under twenty thousand dollars turn into over 250 000 in profit after fix up repairs taxes expenses and everything that's like a 12x more than the 3x we've seen that the stock market would have safely returned unless of course you'll loaded into margin which is a great way for people to absolutely get destroyed this is why I don't advocate for margin now I want to Circle back to that scenario towards the end of the video because we've got some really interesting shifts happening and there are some that you really want to pay attention to that we haven't actually seen a flip-flop this way uh very much so take a look at this all right so first after the 2008 great financial crisis and housing market crash some of the first buyers back in the market were institutional home buyers in fact Warren Buffett famously said in 2012 that if he could buy as many single-family homes as possible throughout America that is exactly what he would do equities are still cheap relative to any other asset class but they're not going to say the single-family homes are cheap now too yeah single family homes but yeah if I had a way of buying a couple hundred thousand single-family homes and I had a way of managing the management is enormous it was really a problem because they're one by one they're not like apartment houses so but I would load up on them and I would I would take mortgages out at very very low rates but but uh if if anybody is thinking about buying home five years ago they couldn't buy them fast enough because they thought they're going to go up and now they don't buy them because they think they're going to go down and interest rates are far lower uh it's a way in effect to short the dollar because you can you can take a 30-year mortgage and if it turns out your interest rates too high next week you refinance lower and if it turns out it's it's too low the other guy stuck with it for 30 years so it it's a very attractive asset class now of course Warren Buffett is a famous value investor when he sees value he goes and buys and today you have the opposite of that you don't have a lot of value in real estate in fact you have the chairperson of the Federal Reserve telling home buyers that they're better off pausing and waiting for a reset before buying you know I would say if you're if you're a home homebuyer somebody or a young person looking to buy a home you need a bit of a reset we need to get back to a place where where supply and demand are back together and where inflation is down low again and mortgages are mortgage rates are low again so this this will be a process whereby we ideally we we do our work in a way that where the housing market settles in a new place and housing availability and credit availability are at appropriate levels these two things together are really important because it goes to tell us that when investors and institutional investors start buying there must usually be a sign of value which implies that if they stop buying then there's a sign of a lack of value and there's probably also a sign of a lack of value if the chairperson on the Federal Reserve is like yeah you may as well wait right now no these things are awesome because hey they can tell you that when investors are stepping back into the market you could see a sort of setting of the floor in real estate valuations now some of this is kind of what we're hoping is happening in the stock market right now maybe this summer ended up having its a stock market low and a floor has been set because we've now potentially hit Peak inflation and maybe we were able to reiterate the disasters that were going on with still good earnings potentially actually setting that floor in the stock market now leading some to wonder is this bear Market rally we're seeing in the stock market or is the floor in now Wall Street tries to do the same thing with homes and watching what Wall Street is doing when it comes to homes is really important because when they set a floor in real estate you want to be shopping now of course Main Street tends to get mad about Wall Street buying because well after all it creates more competition for home buyers but the fact is it also does create more stock for renters and of course prevents the Free Fall of home values because you have somebody coming in buying when prices are low which is better than having nobody buying because then the 2008 crisis could have been even worse so tracking institutions is important but it's not just institutions it's also Small Time flippers and investors they all help contribute to that floor in 2011 in fact the first home that I bought went into Escrow in in 2011.
now for four months in a row now here in August of 2020. something interesting has happened take a look at this particular chart here this chart shows that real estate professionals have actually been pulling back from the housing market and this has occurred now for four months in a row that is investor purchases of homes in the United States has fallen for four months in a row last time we've seen something like that was actually during the lockdowns of of the covet pandemic usually though this number is rising and if you take it all the way back to 2008 you can see that it consistently has been rising but unfortunately now something's changing the Market's not seeing that anymore and this just gets worse the more we dig see we've actually now gotten to the point where institutional investors have decided wait a minute mortgage rates are higher home buyer affordability is at the lowest level that we have seen since 2008 what's actually starting to happen we'll take a look at what Bloomberg's telling us Bloomberg's telling us that some companies like a D-Max investment properties in Dallas said a california-based investor canceled 20 contracts after mortgage rates jumped in June and the company lost about three thousand dollars in deposits per property to express interest in these properties that means investment companies are now starting to lose money canceling deals and walking away and you're even seeing eye buyers which are basically like flippers like open door and Redfin saying that they're trying to aggressively get rid of the housing inventory that they've built up which potentially leads to sort of a an increase of inventory on the market of homes for sale putting more pressure on home prices going down and when you start getting a willingness of these companies to actually start taking lower offers rather than keep carrying properties it's a sign that CEOs and Corporate America are like ah crap okay if we'd rather lose money on deposits and dump property sooner uh at a potentially lower price deciding that Corporate America is like yeah no this is this is definitely not the time to be buying real estate in fact here's another one here is somebody the chief economist for Moody analytics Moody's Analytics and they say investors can't make the economics of investing in real estate work whether they're a flipper small mom and pop or Institutional Investor institutional buyers are opportunistic I'm sure they're waiting thinking they'll get a much better price for these properties in the not so distant future like this is the stuff that's circulating right now and really you can't blame this even American homes for rent and Rhythm Capital are quote taking a more cautious approach slowing down their purchases now you look at this and you're like wait a minute so flippers are relaxing the institutional investors are relaxing the total number of purchases by small mom and pop investors flippers and the big Corporate America ones everyone's slowing down what's going on here well again it's fear that prices are going down or could go down even more and it makes sense because mortgage rates are up three percent in eight months which increases costs for homes in fact we're at the lowest levels of home buyer affordability that we've had since 2006 which is right before the Great Recession you've also on top of that got new construction home buyers companies of new construction homes complaining that buyers are canceling deals or taking a larger credits to be convinced to take a deal in other words taking more builder upgrades or at a higher expense to the home by building companies or potentially buying home buyers loans down which just means paying more money to try to convince buyers to still buy homes by lowering their interest rates but you got to start paying even more and more and more or people just keep canceling more and more deals in the event that price is actually really start falling because what happens is once you start creating more expensive housing an inventory builds up and price drops start ticking up and people start getting more desperate to offload homes more quickly then you start seeing a little bit of a fall in prices what happens that fall turns into an oh crap more of a fall is going to happen now something here is one word and that may have already alluded to it but there's one thing here that makes all of this even worse and it's a warning that I gave six months ago and the neat thing is it could be around the corner now I want to talk about what's around the corner but if you feel like you need help getting knowledge in order to avoid making Necessary mistakes that could cost you hundreds of thousands of dollars and instead learn through the mistakes of others by getting started in real estate and not being clueless in real estate like most people in the stock market are most people in the stock market don't know anything about real estate seriously consider a nominal investment check out this year to millionaire investing course below potentially bundle it with th not only do you get the best price today but you'll get me in the private live streams analyzing your deals when you find them and get them in escrow and you'll also get my entire Archive of analyzing everyone else's real estate deals over the last few years you can become an expert at valuing real estate and making sure you're hitting a deal below market value everything I've learned is either from my own experience or that of my family's 40 years of experience in profession National Property Management rental renovation and of course real estate investing you'll learn safe leverage as well so use that coupon code named series a which expires on August 26th which you can then get the best price on until the price goes up so folks what's worse than a price full what's worse than prices actually falling it's literally the following it's what Bloomberg has thrown up on a chart well not in a chart but they've been talking about it here it is folks the first word right here fear has crept into the housing market replacing the can't lose optimism that attracted mountains of capital in the years after the most recent crash after the nearly doubling of mortgage rates since the end of 2011 investors are having to navigate an increasingly complex Dynamic where both borrowing costs and home values are relatively High there's one last potential Silver Lining a pullback could help settle at more affordable prices exactly and those are the affordable prices that you want to take advantage of in fact it's why I'm getting ready to launch a series a and new company that is going to be focused on real estate and taking advantage of this dip you could sign up to learn more about that by typing in your email totally for free it's not a Spam list it's just once we have more information like a pitch deck for this company we'll be able to send out more information on it just go to metcaven.com series a to drop your email in there so folks if fear is coming and we actually have statistics already turning dirty for real estate what could happen next and what should we do to prepare well we'll take a look at that right after you see this this folks is the Redfin data center the black line is 2022.
those are price drops that is active listings with price drops yeah you've got a skyrocketing of price drops and it keeps going higher nationally everywhere we're seeing it and yeah all real estate is local but boy macro Trends are National or Global take a look at this median sale prices already three percent off the top and don't be so excited that you've got a level there for four weeks once fear comes in which now Bloomberg is saying fear is in it's just a matter of time for that number to come nicely down even more remember the largest drop in real estate prices we saw was 1.9 on a month over month basis and a 40 percent drop over three years so real estate drops slowly but the reason it drops slowly is because of fear and fear takes longer to manifest and takes longer for people to react to especially when it comes to real estate this is why I gave a warning earlier this year that look if real estate starts to turn slightly like tick tick tick and then you get a Tucker Carlson saying uh oh real estate prices are now down year over year you get to like February or April of next year and what's gonna happen you're gonna get these news anchors going real estate prices are now officially down year over year oh no once that news spreads then you could really manifest the real fear and you want to be ready to buy and so that's why there are six critical things that you should consider right now number one we're in a technical recession more fear will come next year when that fear comes be ready to buy I'm giving you like an over a year heads up do whatever you can now to increase your income honestly consider becoming a real estate agent I know that sounds ironic because you know it's like wait a minute we're gonna if we're prices are going down why would you become a real estate agent because that's what people need an agent when it's hard and if you could help people and hard times understand the macroeconomics they will be loyal to you they will buy with you and you'll massively profit off of it you'll get rewarded in the good times and the bad you don't want to be a new agent when it's easy to sell a home I've got a course on everything that I did when I was a real estate agent everything that I did when I was a broker because I became a broker as well to get clients and to educate clients and to make them lifelong clients you could do it too so consider becoming an agent and teaching people about your local market helping them navigate the buying and selling process it's easy to do you probably get your license three months after you watch this video it's not that hard you just use flash cards but whatever you do get more money so that you're right ready to invest then pay down debt for every one dollar of monthly payments you have you reduce your ability to qualify for a home by two dollars and 34 cents every dollar is a multiple of two dollars and 34 cents that's a lot it's gonna affect your purchase price a lot number three get educated stay away from flipping courses focus on long term wealth building in real estate super super important number four start building your reputation and your connections lenders escrow title agents go to broker tours go to open houses become an expert in your neighborhood now and don't wait and seriously number five I want you to ask yourself right now how many people do you know that own more than four homes and the people that you know that own more than four homes are they rich or are they poor yeah you probably know very little people who own a lot of real estate but the ones you do are probably pretty damn wealthy consider that write that down it's not just buying index funds or buying M1 Finance pies okay then number six I want you to right now write down write it down on a little sticky note or something write down hey I need to get that prayer potion cup from RuneScape no I'm just kidding what what you actually need to do is write down what do I need to do to buy my first home you might be thinking yourself oh I'm only 18 I'll buy a home in the future no your age is not the limiting factor you picking up the phone right now and calling a loan officer off of Yelp is the limiting factor hey my name's Kevin I'm wondering what do I need to get pre-approved for my first home would you mind sending me your needs list write that word down and underline it needs list sure what's your email I'd love to send you my needs list because I actually as a lender have fewer clients right now because the Market's slowing down and I'd love to walk you through and educate you through the process of buying real estate as a lender boom how easy you pick up the phone you get a lender now if you really want to understand how to Value real estate and make sure you're getting deals under market value to make sure you're safe learn how to fish learn how to invest in real estate share how the programs down below use the coupon code before August 26 and we'll see you in the live streams and did you really think I'd leave you with about circling back to what we talked about which was wait a minute how'd that 12x happen in real estate yeah so I actually have a full video on this and I'm going to link it down below it's a totally free video that you can watch but it shows you a little bit more insight into real estate and it walks you through how I was able to buy a home for 305 000 uh That Home by the way I have now sold for seven hundred eighty thousand dollars so I realized my long-term profits on it now usually I don't like selling real estate I don't Advocate anybody sell their real estate because you give up the fact that you could literally never pay capital gains taxes in real estate 1031 forever and then uh you know something happens in the future and you uh basically get a stepped up tax basis and you never have to pay taxes in real estate it's really really incredible so real estate is a phenomenal way to build massive wealth and never pay taxes you can't say that in the stock market unless you take advantage of uh having your own ETF and avoid taxes while exchanging stocks but you know who knows so uh those things are pretty expensive but anyway watch that video it's gonna be linked in the description down below and you're gonna see that property the only update from that video is the fact that that property is now sold and I realized the profits and like I said if that money placed in the stock market would have done very well I would have three to four x tip would have not held a candle to what I was able to do with that first property and what it led to with other properties that experience and the money whoo go watch that it's huge
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