저자: Kevin · 외국인
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테슬라 주가가 나스닥 대비 크게 부진한 상황에서 IRA 전기차 세액공제(7,500달러)가 테슬라 마진에 유리하다고 주장. 머스크의 지분 매도와 트위터 인수 우려는 제한적이라 보고, 주문잔고(약 50만대) 증가와 생산능력 확대로 수요 우려는 과장됐다고 봄. 펀더멘털 기준 2025년 목표가 1,500~2,200달러 제시, 장기 보유 관점 강조.
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boy there has been a lot of fud around tesla and i kind of get it because you know it's kind of frustrating you see a lot of companies going to the moon right now and yet still tesla's kind of lagging over here right this was an alert that i sent out to course members i haven't shown this one yet to the public i thought this was really funny though because on the 8th i added 420 shares to nvidia to the already 1337 shares i had which is elite and gamer speak and i thought it was really funny because the jpm guy read that back as okay so i show you have 1337 shares and we're adding 420 you got it that was pretty epic but anyway like this this part here i've shown before i was frustrated that a tesla is is down 29-ish percent maybe even now like 31 year-to-date and uh it's kind of frustrating because a lot of companies aren't down like this right apple minus 8 microsoft minus 14 google 17.3 the nasdaq uh is down around 19 nvidia's down more at 42 and some of the smaller caps that got crushed and profit less companies that got crushed are still down large or like 60 70 but in terms of large it's frustrating and so on the daily when we see the nasdaq go up or maybe it's like down a quarter and a half percent why is tesla uh either just red or down like four times as much as the nasdaq and there are a few things that we really have to talk about here because there's so much short-term flood and one of the things that i realize and we talk about all the time in the stocks and psychology of money course is really that there's fundamental analysis that you can do that gives you conviction to stay in a stock but it can take a while for that fundamental analysis to actually be reflected in the share price and oftentimes that share price let's just say for tesla might be fifteen hundred dollars you could be bobbing around below that under twitter foot or other fud and then when we actually get to 1500 we might not stop there we might then go from food to fomo and go 2 200 that could literally happen by the end of 2022 in fact i kind of expect it will of course no guarantees but the point is what the actual stock price of a company is rarely matches its fundamental value there's a reason why when end phase goes down to 120 to 150 the company buys back its shares and that's when i buy in face because they're smart they know their fundamental value and when they're buying i'm buying i've done it many times and i've traded on their moves and it's worked out great obviously i send those alerts to those of you in the stocks and psychology money group which you could join if you check out the link down below but this is beside that point what matters right now is that tesla is kind of bobbing around that 860 level we want to know where do we actually think tesla share price is going to go and is it something that we should be concerned about that wait wait a minute wait a minute kevin elon musk sold at the top three times now he sold back in i think it was early december when tesla was around 1200 bucks then he sold around 960 in april now he's selling around 869 here in august and the whole time these have been the high the lower highs for tesla and so it's kind of like uh you know is this concerning like should our fundamentals that tesla be shaken because elon maybe maybe he knows he did call the recession coming so so maybe he knows and now's the time to get out in fact when he just sold shares on the 5th 8th and 9th of which i happened to buy some of them on the 5th everything was green and i'm like tesla's red this doesn't make sense it turned out it was elon selling so i bought some of his shares which probably but which is kind of funny but anyway it's so weird because oh my gosh here we are in this situation where people are thinking okay that's it the fundamentals are broken it's over and look elon's been pretty good about timing in the past but what do i actually think is happening here and what are the core topics that we got to address let's hit them so first let's talk the new ev tax credit and some fund that's coming out of this then let's talk about the twitter disaster and elon sale we'll keep that one short uh obviously then we'll also talk about some fundamental analysis i will keep this relatively brief i'll talk a little bit about the demand china my experience with with tesla deliveries and then also some price targets in my spreadsheet so we'll try to keep that brief okay first inflation reduction act look there's a lot of fud going on around this and i was one of the first people to break this when i broke down the inflation reduction act and i actually read through it and i'm like oh my gosh i mentioned this on twitter and both on a youtube video this is interesting they've now loosened the definition of vehicles that qualify instead of being electric vehicles that qualify for you know basically uh ev tax credits of 7 500 now they're clean air vehicles as long as 40 of their batteries are manufactured in the united states but this really opens up hydrogen vehicles and hybrids and hybrids have substantially smaller batteries so it's a lot easier to manufacture 40 so a lot of people think the lobbyists for like ford and gm are getting this tax credit for basically their crappy hybrids okay they're not crappy hybrids but you know what i mean i'm making a tesla video here okay so i have to be a little biased i have to be a little tesla fanboy and i am okay i mean i got a big position and over twenty six thousand shares i'm freaking tesla all right anyway so i gotta be a little a little biased okay yeah let's look at that let's get that let's make that very clear okay uh anyway so a lot of people are fudding about this because they think ah crap okay like the lobbyists win uh biden screwed us again and uh tesla's not gonna be able to qualify because uh we've got a few things one forty percent of their batteries probably aren't uh you know made in free trade countries like canada america or mexico in fact most of tesla's lithium hydroxide currently comes from either china or argentina kobold typically comes from the democratic republi republic of congo or china graphene mostly comes from china now we do source some local uh nickel production uh again here locally copper not generally found much like heavily at least by weight kind of depends on how they measure this 40 but but not so heavily found in batteries but then again i'm also not a battery chemist so maybe maybe i'm wrong about that but i i don't think we really have much copper in the batteries uh these are generally in the motors and even though tesla wants to source some copper from the united states redwood materials which was founded by somebody who used to work for tesla in the early days with elon musk uh right now it just doesn't seem like tesla's might qualify even if they did though you have to consider that the s and x won't because suvs are limited in how much they can sell for to actually be able to get the credit uh sedans and the same for sedans sedans can't sell for more than 55k so there goes the model s both the regular s and the plaid suvs can't sell for more than 80k so there goes the model x the performance model 3 wouldn't qualify so you're really only talking about the y's and the cheaper threes which i mean that's honestly most sales now they could qualify and here's what i expect tesla to do and this is just totally my opinion but 7 500 of free government money is a lot of freaking money even if it costs tesla as much as a thousand bucks more per vehicle to rejigger the supply chains for the lower end model threes and y's and then also the uh well yeah and then the model y's that it would make sense to do that because see when you look at tax credits from an economist point of view here's generally how they work generally when you get like a 7 500 handout from the government that 7 500 is split between the business and the customer assuming it's a tax rebate for something right not always it's not always 50 50.
it depends on demand and supply and other factors and so this is going to skew something for tesla but let's just say we're just as an example gm okay and you go buy a hybrid with them i wouldn't be surprised if about half of the tax credit is a benefit to the consumer even though they feel like they're getting the full 7 500 the other half is probably them paying you know 37.50 more for the vehicle that's my guess from an economic point of view usually government incentives are split a little bit on both sides then there's some dead weight loss but don't worry so much about that that just makes it really complicated and confusing the point is don't think about it as oh the consumer's up 7 500 bucks no the company obviously takes some profit as well now because tesla has so much excess demand they don't necessarily have to be more competitive at the moment they could probably realize like 90 of that 7 500 so you know that could be somewhere around you know 6 uh you know like six hundred bucks and realistically you know six hundred maybe six thousand seven hundred bucks whatever just quick mental math doesn't really matter somewhere around there over six thousand dollars even if it cost them an extra thousand bucks to rejigger the supply chains a little bit that's still potentially be an extra 5 500 of profit for tesla and i'm rounding here with the numbers but the point is to say tesla's probably gonna get the bulk of that tax credit not the consumer because if it weren't for that tax credit the prices would probably come down the tax credit will allow tesla to keep the prices up because they have so much excess demand and they'll figure out how to get to that 40 level i'm pretty dang confident they'll be able to figure it out because that's a lot of money and it's going to drive tesla's margins through the roof and people are going to go holy crap tesla's actually selling vehicles with a 35 margin instead of 30 margin this ev tax credit is huge and wall street just doesn't get it yet they're going to have to see it in reports and i could be wrong but that's my expectation the ev tax credit is mostly going to be sucked up uh in tesla's case by tesla not the customer the customer is gonna feel like they're getting a 7500 check but it's a lie tesla's getting most of it okay that's my take uh and again that's why tesla will probably do whatever they can to make sure that their customers will be able to qualify for that obviously there are other constraints as well but we don't need to hit all of the constraints right now i just want you to know i believe the eevee tax credit is extremely bullish for tesla and you know elon as soon as that act passed got on the phone with people at tesla figure it out make it happen it's 40 in those batteries otherwise they ain't going up like the door we want people having those 7 500 at least that's what i would do i mean realistically it's like again if you have to spend a little extra money to ship it around you're going to make money on that decision so i'm happy about that now we got to talk briefly about the twitter overhang elon selling shares and then i want to show you my spreadsheet valuation some updates and things like that but first a quick message from our sponsor attendees now you've heard me talk about them before tandy's he gives you integrated options flow totally for free and i've seen comments asking why is it only on ios so here's the big news they just launched their web version it's right here with attendees web platform you can connect your own brokerage so you can monitor your performance and do the necessary research to be profitable in this environment you just go over here to connect brokerage the options flow data shows whale purchases and ranks the bid ask spreads to highlight market disconnects you can take advantage of take a look at this i can just go over here and first of all i could see a lot of activity on looks like we got a vix play going here with the calls on uv x-y we've got roku and q-com but let's go ahead and see what's going on with tesla looks like we've got a lot of activity on tesla puts right now anywhere between 870 to 950 puts on tesla we've even got to put over here at with the nine contracts at 600 dollars but boy if you're looking for that big monitor look at that an 850 put that expires tomorrow yikes that's gonna be a lot of money that has to get redeployed when that time comes and that option expires tomorrow fingers crossed tesla doesn't go that low tomorrow but then again you know if i click on the option i'm like oh wait a minute we're pretty dang close so we're following it to the close we are down 2.36 today we're at 8 62 15 and take a look at this you can get even more details just by clicking on it it's a pretty neat platform and the cool thing is it's a totally free other companies on twitter sharing options flow data are charging anywhere from 40 to 350 a month for the same type of data that attendees is literally giving away for free brokerage connect supports accounts with schwab td ameritrade robinhood weeble and fidelity now once you connect your brokerage the due diligence is all in one place for you so filter out the noise and use attendees i love it and make sure you click the link in the description to give some free credit over to meet kevin it doesn't cost you anything add your brokerage so you can take advantage of this market chaos link in the description for free options flow data and check out attendees all right welcome back now if you haven't yet followed me on twitter i highly recommend you do so because you see me reply to things sort of on a whim like this there was a cnbc article that says self-made millionaire colin don't buy a home unless you can afford to waste money and i'm like what that's a dumb headline so before even reading the article i wrote that's a dumb headline and then of course when i actually opened the article i had to reply again oh my gosh i wrote that before seeing grant cardone authored the article now i could definitely say dumb article in addition to dumb headline but anyway the point here was to go to my reply to gary black where i agree with him gary black is basically telling us that hey look at this point here's the little spreadsheet for it bottom line elon probably at max only needs to raise another two billion dollars so yes elon musk you already know this sold 6.9 billion dollars a tesla share i don't know why it always has to end in 69 but uh you know the average price of his sales was 8.69 as well so it's i i don't know how they engineer this stuff but it's pretty remarkable but anyway an extra 2 billion bucks okay whatever like maybe maybe he could make that you know happen through financing or whatever else the point is it seems like if elon is forced to buy twitter which elon said the reason he was selling is just in case he's forced to buy it he doesn't want to have to sell tesla stock at potentially depressed prices may as well do it at this point because we don't know what's gonna happen with the macro economy what if shanghai shuts tesla down again and tesla goes down right uh in in value because people freak out again that missed deliveries blah blah blah the point is hopefully elon should be done selling for now but then again he did tell us in april that he'd be done selling so you just don't know at this point i just want to make it very clear i think there's a very very high likelihood elon musk is just going to get a haircut of a price reduction maybe seven percent maybe 6.9 percent who knows uh i i kind of think he should probably get like a 15 price reduction that's probably what i'd be trying to go for if i can get more grade if it's a little less whatever but the odds are he's gonna buy it uh if he doesn't buy it he's already told us on twitter that he's going to rebuy his tesla shares i kind of doubt that but okay hey great fine either way hopefully he's done selling uh i will say regarding the elon tesla thing what here's just the bottom line thing that you've got to know about it i really respect your time so i want to keep it simple just you know bottom line i really believe it's possible that twitter just really doesn't care about the bot number and even though that's bad business it's not fraudulent as long as they have one person at their company that counted five bots out of a hundred and then they could make the estimate that yeah it's about five percent plus or minus and see i did a test i was shocked but i went through one of my comment threads so i posted a tweet i got about 100 replies i went through it i only found two bots now i think it's skewed for elon because there's way more engagement so the bots have a lot more value posting spam comments there and so he might see a lot more which might lead him to believe that twitter's a lot more spammy than maybe it is for me sometimes i get spammed but again you know not always but anyway if one person just went to my profile at twitter and the ceo is like hey yo go pick someone's profile and and count how many bots there are and they picked mine and then they counted two bots or five bots even let's say that the time they checked okay well there you go they made an estimate it's about five percent that's stupid it's a really bad way to do it but it's not fraud and elon's got to win a fraud argument here that's tough if it is proven that there was fraud elon will win hands down and he'll walk from the steel and he's already alluded to starting a social media company called x.com so don't bother going there because there's literally nothing there right now it doesn't even really load but anyway you know what do i know okay i'm like a 30 year old dude who's drinking out of a level 99 slayer cub like a sixth grader hoping to make out with his crush after getting pizza at the school cafeteria and realizing that's not going to happen so instead going to the vending machine and buying some sweet gummy worms and sucking on those instead anyway course member today mentioned uh uh something that they thought was interesting they sent me this screenshot they're like hey kevin you know usually teslas don't sell used for like a 12 discount uh generally they they sell for at or more than uh what what the listing prices are and uh my reply to this uh was hey yeah a i do think there's a chance that you know demand could get cut down during a recession that would be normal but the other thing that i thought was really interesting was who the hell parks a tesla model s on gravel in the middle of a freaking field like if that's how they're treating the car on the outside imagine what the inside looks like it's probably a smoker vomit mess or i'm just a tesla bull who doesn't want to believe that it's possible that demand could go down after all tesla's uh well troy like tesla detroit troy tests like is his name on twitter he's great he does give us a little bit of insight into demand which i think is pretty cool take a look at this demand he sees that uh the current measure of tesla's order backlog is around 500 000 vehicles that order backlog has almost doubled since q4 of 2021 based on his estimates right these are not official tesla estimates but this guy is really good like he's on it uh when it comes to uh this this kind of stuff so i i think it's really really incredible uh but anyway uh so you can get some other numbers here but go follow him on twitter i think he's brilliant i'm not going to give all of his stuff away you know you can follow other you know gary black as well whom we mentioned whom we have mentioned here uh i do want to talk price targets uh oh and uh delivery time frames you know like there's this guy over here ray for tesla he's like hey my delivery time frames are going down for my vehicle i was told that my model x my new blue model x would be ready in like september or october they called me in july while i was in europe and they're like hey it's ready so i kind of do believe that these delivery time frames are going faster some people say hey that's bad that means demand is going away but when you look at this order backlog and you have basically you know six months of an order backlog i'm not not terribly worried about it on the order issue right now especially the commentary that we got out of uh zach and elon on the last earnings call about how no they're not really seeing an impact to the order backlog or elon saying well it really follows sentiment so like when the market was really crappy in june uh look at that you kind of saw flat increases in the backlog not a surprise because this was like the crappiest time of the market right now we're seeing green again i wouldn't be surprised to actually see the backlog increase so i can't really be worried about demand going down and if anything if they can ramp up faster and we get a larger backlog well then that's just doubly good but yeah look there is a possibility hey we're in a recession that demand goes down and at some point tesla's gonna have to drop some of its prices right uh but that that will come so uh there are some people talking about chinese demand potentially going down especially since tesla sales in china were down 64 but then again the factory shutdown for major upgrades that's actually going to allow shanghai to ramp even more uh quickly so like that's not really a bad thing that's a good thing not worried about that but even if like china's economy collapsed because every youtuber's doing the china economy's collapsing click bait right now like okay whatever that's why i invest in united states companies okay but anyway whatever whatever happens in china in my opinion doesn't matter if anything if there's less local demand in china it just frees up more raw materials for tesla to produce more teslas in china and ship them back to the united states or somewhere else right uh not a big deal to me deutsche bank has a price target of 1125 they see little demand reduction and they also view tesla as one of the best buy targets for autos and one of the best stocks for the second half of the year they think tesla's going to get to about 2.2 4 to 2.5 million vehicles of capacity by 2023 and they think the second half of 2022 was actually where we're gonna see some of this explosiveness morningstar has a price target of only 760 dollars but they see tesla is very uncertain and uh i'm pretty sure that once that uncertainty on wall street goes away that tesla's actually going to keep delivering these sorts of vehicles that the price will skyrocket that's just my estimate let's briefly go to the spreadsheet i haven't changed pretty much anything from the spreadsheet since the last time we did it i did add this because some people are like um kevin's so negative about tesla's cash flow kevin said in the last video that tesla's gonna have to raise the money well here in in the tesla earnings report they say they don't have to raise money and i'm like dude tesla themselves said as long as we don't have to shut down again and that's what i said in my videos like if shanghai shuts down or berlin shuts down which is unlikely they're going to have to raise money again and they're going because their operating cash flow will plummet you do not want a shanghai shut down okay we just had another city literally today i woke up this morning and i saw a notification city of 1.4 million people locked down today august 11 2010 it can happen tesla is not immune to bad [ __ ] happening okay so god like i don't know how bullish i could be but like if you're like a 90 bull the tesla community's like [ __ ] you man you shouldn't have said that sorry uh people watch this with families around i apologize but what samsung feels like sometimes i'm like no okay like i put my money where my mouth is like how much more bullish do i need to freaking be i ain't going to 100 okay because i gotta look at the bad too so important anyway supply outpacing demand come on we're not even seeing that uh so so really what we've got here look my estimates for 2023 are only 2.2 million vehicles that's like shy of what even deutsche bank is is recommending they think we're gonna be at 2.5 okay that's huge that's gonna make that 2025 target of nearly six million vehicles uh a lot easier and i know some people are like oh but kevin will they even be able to sell those vehicles i think so uh i'm i don't even know if i want to entertain that but honestly if we can get tesla's down to like a one week delivery time dude we would be selling probably two to three times as many teslas maybe even four to five times as many teslas because people don't want to wait my neighbor's like kevin kevin listen to this people think that somehow i have power my neighbor literally right there out the freaking window he's like hey kevin fella got any connections i've got a reservation for a model y but uh i don't want to wait the eight months i'm like dude no i can't even get mine faster and he's like and just drives away uh and then i see him like two weeks later driving some other car and i'm like what happened to waiting for the tesla i didn't want to wait and he's driving around like a gmc or something crap like whatever whatever dude so okay look i just what matters here you just give a crap about the bottom line okay i'm a bottom line kind of guy you want bottom lines on fundamental analysis you come to the course member live streams okay they get like four to seven thousand views every freaking day and it's people go there because they know the information is good and the value is good and i really think you should be there too otherwise i think you're missing out anyway so look at the price target here what do we got we got uh you know price today is 860 dollars that puts them at a forward p e ratio of only 25.85 p e ratio in 2025 sitting at uh about 66 to get to a future price of 2022 2 200 now if we go ahead and change this and just put it bring it down to 45 okay that's still 1500 1500 as a future value is still a 15 annual compounded rate of return for the next four years it's still really really freaking good okay if we get the 66 in 2025 because it's gonna go down over time right uh then then then you know maybe we're looking at like a 26 percent rate return that's freaking phenomenal okay like it's great now you should diversify like you should diversify into real estate you shouldn't be all in on one stock that's a really bad idea but anyway i gotta go thank you so much for being here and we'll see you next one bye
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