저자: DanielPronk · 외국인
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결론: 인덱스 투자는 장기적으로 유효하지만 S&P500 밸류에이션이 높아 향후 수익률이 둔화될 수 있으니 투자 기간과 목표에 따라 접근해야 한다. 워런 버핏의 1996년 주주서한 및 2002년 질의응답 내용을 인용: 대부분의 투자자에게는 저비용 인덱스 펀드(예: S&P500 광범위 지수)가 최선이며, 한 번에 몰빵하지 말고 장기간 나눠 투자하라는 조언. 버핏은 PER·PBR·PSR 등 단일 지표로 매수·매도 시점을 판단하기 어렵다고 밝힘. 일본 사례처럼 지수 수익률이 10여 년간 마이너스였던 경우도 가능하다고 언급. 진행자는 현재 S&P500 PER이 약 24~25배로 고평가 구간에 접근했다고 판단하며, 인덱스 자금 유입이 밸류에이션을 밀어 올리고 있다고 주장. 다만 대폭락 시점은 예측 불가라고 덧붙임. 진행자 본인은 현재 주식보다 현금 비중이 높으며, 조정(correction)이 올 것으로 보고 현금으로 저가 매수 기회를 기다리는 전략을 취하고 있다고 밝힘. 이는 투자자 개인 판단 사항이라고 강조. 투자 기간이 40년 남은 젊은 투자자에게는 인덱스 투자가 여전히 좋은 선택일 수 있으나, 10~15년 내 은퇴 예정이라면 고평가 지수에 계속 자금을 붓는 것은 신중해야 한다는 조언. 진행자는 달러코스트에버리징(DCA)이 진정한 부의 원천이 아니며 과열 시 투자를 멈추고 현금을 확보하는 것이 중요하다고 주장. 이는 시장 통념과 반대되는 견해라고 스스로 언급. 참고 자료로 Phil Town(Rule One Investing)의 'Don't Get Caught in the Dollar Cost Averaging Trap' 영상과 'Stay the Course' (Vanguard와 인덱스 혁명 이야기) 도서를 제시. 출연자 전망 요약: 개별 종목 언급은 없으며, S&P500(미국 지수)의 향후 1~3개월 방향에 대해서는 구체적 예측 없이 '조정이 올 것'이라는 중기적 우려만 제시.
다듬은 글
Let me add a few thoughts about your own investments. Most investors, both institutional and individual, will find that the best way to own common stocks is through an index fund that charges minimal fees. Those following this path are sure to beat the net results after fees and expenses delivered by the great majority of investment professionals.
This is the part of Warren Buffett's 1996 letter to shareholders that the man at the beginning of this video is referencing when he questions Warren Buffett. Good morning. My name is Ted Freriedman. I'm from Cincinnati, Ohio. You said in a 1996 annual report that most investors will find that the best way to own common stocks is in an index fund that charges minimal fees.
Two questions. First, there are a lot of different index funds that hold different baskets of stocks. What criteria would you use or recommend to select an appropriate index fund? Second, the price toearnings ratio of the S&P 500 is significantly higher than its historical average. What benchmark should an investor use in purchasing this index?
Yeah, I would say that in terms of the index fund, I would I would just take a very broad index. I I would I would take the S&P 500 as long as I wasn't putting all my money in at one time. If I were going to put money into a index fund in relatively equal amounts over a 20 or 30 year period, I would pick it I would I would pick a fund.
And I know Vanguard has very low costs. I'm sure there are a whole bunch of others that do. I just haven't looked at the field. But I would be very careful about the costs involved. Uh because all they're doing for you is is buying that index. Uh I think that the people who buy those index funds on on average will get better results than the people that buy funds that have higher costs attached to them because it's just a matter of of of math.
If you have a very high percentage of funds being institutionally managed and a great many institutions charge a lot of money for doing it and others charge a little, they're going to get very similar gross results but different net results. And I recommend to all of you reading John John Bogle's written a couple of books in the last 5 years and I I can't give you the titles but they're very good books and anybody investing in funds should read those books um before investing or if you've already invested you still should read the books and and it's all you need to know uh really about fund investing.
So I would pick a broad index but I wouldn't toss a chunk in at any one time. I would do it over a period of time because the the very nature of index funds is that you are saying I think America's business is going to do well over a reasonably well over a long period of time but I don't know enough to pick the winners and I don't know enough to pick the winning times.
There's nothing wrong with that. I don't know enough to pick the winning times. Occasionally I think I know enough to pick a winner but not very often. And I certainly can't pick winners by going down through the whole list and saying this is a winner and this isn't and so on. So the important thing to do if you have an overall feeling that business is a reasonable place to have your money over a long period of time is to invest over a long period of time and not make any bet implicitly by putting a big chunk in at a given time.
As to the criteria as to when you should or shouldn't I don't think there are any great criteria on that. I don't think price earnings ratio you know determines things. I don't think price book ratios price sales ratios. I don't think any there there's no single metric I can give you or that anyone else can give you in my view that will tell you this is a great time to buy stocks or not to buy stocks or anything of the sort.
It it just isn't that easy. That's why you go to an index fund and that's why you buy over a period of time. It isn't that easy. You can't get it by reading a magazine. You can't get it by, you know, watching television. You can't, you'd love to have something that said, you know, I mean, that that, you know, if pees are 12 or below or some number, you buy and if they're 25 or above, you sell.
It is, it doesn't work that way. It's it's it's a more complex business than that. It couldn't be that easy when you think about it. Uh, so if you are buying an index fund, you are protecting yourself against the fact that you don't know the answers to those questions, but that you think you can do well over time without knowing the answers to those questions.
as long as you consciously recognize that that fact and um you know I would if you're a young person and you intend to save a portion of your income over time I just say just pick out a very broad index and I would I would probably use the S&P 500 because I I think if you start getting beyond that you start starting to think you should be in small caps this time and large caps that time or this foreign side and as soon as you do that you know you're in a game you don't you know, you're not equipped to play in all cander.
That would be my recommendation on Charlie. Uh I think his second worry is that common stocks could become so highriced that if you bought index funds, you wouldn't expect to do very well. Uh I didn't think I'd live long enough to think that was likely to happen, but now I think that may happen. But probably what you're saying there is that you they could get to a level and be they'd have to be at a sustained level like that for a long time.
They could be there and stay there for a long time. In which case you might make 3 or 4%. But would there be anything way better than that around under those circumstances anyway? And pass the peanut brittle, please. Well, in in in Japan, where something like this happened, uh the return from owning a nice index over the last 13 years or so is negative.
Can something as horrible as that happen here? I mean, is it conceivable? I think the answer is yes. But the option in Japan of course is to is to have uh deposits in a bank or or own Japanese bonds at somewhere between zero and one or one and a half%. So it if if rates on everything get very low which means stocks sell very high you know then it just means that you live in a different world than existed 20 or 30 years ago when generally capital got paid better.
So there we have it. Warren Buffett says that if he were to buy an index fund that it would be a broad index such as the S&P 500 simply due to the fact that the S&P 500 is broad enough that it covers a wide variety of the entire US economy. This means that by simply investing into the S&P 500 that your investment is going to cover a wide enough variety of the US economy that your investment is essentially going to reflect the US economy itself.
So, if you believe that the US economy is going to continue expanding into the future like Warren Buffett does, then investing into an index fund may be a good investment choice for you. However, in this video, Warren Buffett does say that if he were to invest in an index fund that he would not do it all at one time.
He said that he would do it over a long period of time simply because he himself does not know how to time the market. So, by him putting his money in over a longer period of time, it reduces his risk of putting all of his money in when the stock market is extremely high. If a correction or a recession was to come after throwing all of his money in when the market was high, he could lose a vast majority of his overall wealth.
So, putting money into an index fund over time is essentially just a foolproof way of avoiding buying the peak of the index fund or the peak of the stock market. Now, the second question this guy asks Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett at the beginning of the video, I actually find more interesting. He's essentially asking Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett if there is a point where they would stop buying index funds.
And in his question, he refers to the PE ratios throughout the entirety of the index. And I actually found this quite interesting because right now we are sitting at a PE ratio through the S&P 500 of about 24 and we are approaching a PE ratio of 25 which is considered to be very overvalued. So this video was made all the way back in 2002.
But this guy is asking a question that I believe is very relevant to what is going on right now in the stock market. And what I find more interesting is that Charlie Munger said that he does think there will be a point in his lifetime where index funds are very overvalued and will start producing returns that are not as good as they were in the past.
And then he goes on to say that index funds in Japan over the last 13 years actually produced a negative return. And he also thinks that it is not inconceivable to think something similar could happen in the US. So, I just want to bring this up quickly because there are a few instances in history where investing in an index fund would have given you a negative return for a long period of time.
And yes, I know index funds over a long period of time do tend to continue rising, but there can be periods of about 20 years where an index fund can produce a negative return. My personal belief right now is that index funds are a little bit overvalued. As I said earlier in the video, the S&P 500 PE ratio is approaching about 25 right now.
And I know Warren Buffett says that PE ratios are nothing to worry about, but PE ratios are continuing to go up and more and more money keeps flooding into the market. And I wanted to bring this up because index investing is a huge wave that is going on in the investment world right now. Everyone is preaching just putting all of your excess money into index funds and holding them basically forever.
We have YouTubers like Graham Stefen and Nate O'Brien continually telling their audiences that they should just keep investing into index funds basically forever. No matter what the stock market is doing, just keep pouring more and more money into these index funds. And when people buy an index fund like the S&P 500, what happens is your money is distributed throughout every company held within the index fund.
So when everyone is continually buying index funds and just keeps throwing all of their money into them, the overall stock market keeps getting pushed further and further up. This sends stocks across the entire stock market up, which causes them to be considered quite overvalued, which I believe again is what we are seeing right now.
So is index investing still a safe investment? It's really anyone's guess. Hey guys, so I just wanted to pause the video right here because I feel like I need to elaborate my thinking a little bit more. I am not saying right here that index investing is a bad idea by any means. I'm just saying that I don't want people to have this idea that investing in an index is a sure way to continually be making money all the time.
I'm just noticing that online right now, a lot of people are preaching indexes as if they're going to continue going up forever and ever and ever. And over the course of a lifetime, index investing has been a great investment. But what my goal here was to do was to show that there can be periods of over 20 years where you don't actually make a gain by investing in the indexes.
So I just wanted to bring attention to the fact that there can be a long period of time where you can expect to not make any money by investing in indexes. So if you guys are looking into index investing, I just want you to ask yourself what are your financial goals and what is your timeline to reach those goals.
If you're someone young like me that has 40 years left of investing, then index investing very well could be the best investment option for you. But if you're someone close to retirement within the next 10 to 15 years, I honestly think it is not wise to continually pour more and more money into the indexes.
And that is just because if you are investing into an index, you have to look at it as one business. And I personally do not believe it is a good idea to continue investing into one business when that business is starting to become overvalued. I know that there's this dollar cost averaging movement going on right now where you just continually put money into one company or into an index at the end of every single month when you have money left over.
But this is not how true wealth is created. True wealth is created by understanding when things are overvalued and when you should stop putting money into the market. And this investment strategy is not saying take out all of your money right now. It is just realizing when things are overvalued and when you should stop putting more money into the market.
By doing this, you build up a big cash position that you can deploy when a correction or a recession comes and you can invest that money when things are more cheap. And I know that this goes against what a lot of people are saying right now because the stock market has been producing such massive gains for such a long time.
But honestly, we cannot expect the stock market to keep producing the same amount of gains that we have seen in the past few years. And I feel like I would not be doing anyone a service by not giving you guys my honest thoughts even though they go against what is currently being preached throughout basically the entire stock market.
So I am someone who has more cash than investments right now because I personally do believe that a correction is coming throughout the entire market and people with cash will have an opportunity to buy stocks when they are cheaper. So I just wanted to clear that up and add in that you do need a time frame when you are looking at investing in indexes.
Again, if you have 40 years, by all means, index investing could be the best option for you. But if you are someone who only has 10 to 15 years left in the investment world and you are looking to make a substantial return on your money, then I just want you to understand that there could be a point in time coming very soon where we don't see massive gains coming through index investing for quite some time.
And this has happened in the past. And I don't want to be the guy to burst everyone's bubbles. I just want to be someone who looks at things realistically and gives my honest opinion. That's just who I am. If you guys would like to understand my thinking a little bit more, Philtown Rule One Investing on YouTube has a very good video called Don't Get Caught in the Dollar Cost Averaging Trap.
This video explains my thoughts probably better than I can even articulate them. And I would recommend all of you guys to go and watch this video. Also, the book Warren Buffett is referencing in his video when he is talking is this book. It is called Stay the Course, the story of Vanguard and the Index Revolution.
and it provides a lot of further information on index investing. I will have a link to Phil's video and a link to this book in the description of my video. So, if you guys want to check out either of these two further information sources, they will be in the description. So, I'm sorry for taking more of your time.
I just wanted to elaborate on this a little bit further. We could see a stock market crash at any time and really no one can predict when it is coming. But personally, I do think that index investing is starting to get to the point where it is getting a little bit overvalued. And I just wanted to address that because in this video, Charlie Munger did say that he could see a time where index investing does become overvalued and index investing starts producing less and less gains.
And I think we could potentially start seeing that just simply because everyone is starting to invest into indexes. But anyways, those are Warren Buffett's thoughts, Charlie Mer's thoughts, and a little bit of my thoughts on index investings. But what are your guys' thoughts? I would love to hear your guys' thoughts in the comment section below so that we can discuss this further.
And with all that being said, I really hope you guys enjoyed this video. And if you did enjoy this video, then please remember to leave a like on it. It just really helps YouTube promote my content to a wider audience, which really helps my channel grow. And with all that being said, again, I really hope you guys enjoyed this video, and I hope to see you again in the next
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