Tom Lee Just Changed His Predictions for Bitcoin & Ethereum & Shared a Massive Update on the Market

요약 보기

크립토 윈터가 주식시장 약세 없이 진행된 이례적 조정이며 현재는 미니 크립토 윈터로 판단. 이더리움은 전쟁 이후 S&P 대비 약 20%p 상회하는 최강 자산이고 장기 횡보 후 대폭 상승 국면 진입 가능. 토큰화와 에이전틱 AI가 상승 동력. 이더/비트코인 가격비율 기준 BTC 공정가치 25만 달러, ETH는 8년 평균 복귀 시 1.2만, 2021년 고점 비율 시 2.2만, 결제 레일 가정 시 6.2만 달러. 단기 패닉 매도 자제 권고.

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01. We think fair value for Bitcoin is 250,000. And so if Ethereum goes back to the eight-year average, that's 12,000. If Ethereum goes back to its 2021 high of the price ratio, that's 22,000 Ethereum. Of course, I think it's better positioned today than it was in 2021. And so that gets us to what we think is the payment rails number, that Ethereum is going to be roughly a quarter of the value of Ethereum of Bitcoin.

02. And that gets you to 62,000. So, I think there's a massive move coming in. Following the recent surge in the crypto market, Tom Lee has delivered a highly insightful presentation explaining what's happening right now with Bitcoin and Ethereum. He breaks down his latest price predictions for both assets in the near future, offering a deeper perspective on market trends.

03. This analysis is packed with valuable insights you need to understand right now. So, let's dive into what he has to say next. the crypto winter is over. And now is the time to think about the next cycle. I think there are many things driving this next cycle. Uh and I think Ethereum's going to be one of the main characters of that up cycle.

04. First, let's start with the conversation about uh this crypto winter. And I think, you know, it's been uh you know, painful, a bear market since October. But something that is unusual is that this is the first crypto winter that's happened without a stock market bear market. So, let me explain. Ethereum is down 65% since October.

05. Uh obviously a painful decline. And I want to highlight declines of equal size or greater since 2018. And there are four of them, as you can see on this chart, including one last year and 2025. But here's the thing. In 2016, that 72% decline in Ethereum happened when the equity markets fell 20% and we had an industrial recession.

06. Um in 2019, 2018 through 2019, that's when Fed chair Powell was raising rates at a time when the market couldn't support higher interest rates and we had a 20% equity bear market. Of course, we know 2022 was the time the Fed uh was fighting inflation uh and the economy had a heart attack and so that decline in crypto was with an equity bear market.

07. And last year, in 2025, was the tariff wars that caused a 20% decline in the stock market. So, every one of these crypto bear markets that we've gone through, these crypto winters, have occurred when the equity markets were down at least 20%. But, on October 10th was a a crypto deleveraging event that triggered the first sell-off.

08. And then this year, we had another leg down in stocks because of the Iran war build-up. And maybe it's possibly explained by the SaaS apocalypse um and AI stocks cuz as you can see here, Bitcoin and software stocks are highly correlated. But why am I saying this? Well, because I don't think we have a crypto winter.

09. I think it's a mini crypto winter. And the key now is is the has the stock market bottomed? And here's something to keep in mind. One, since the war started, the best performing asset in the world, outperforming energy stocks, is Ethereum. Um it's out performed the S&P by almost 20 percentage points and you can see it's massively out performed gold and silver.

10. And if you take a look at Ethereum's chart over the last 10 years. I think it's going through a major consolidation, a massive consolidation. And uh how do these other consolidations get resolved? Well, in the first consolidation, Ethereum went on to rise by 220 times. And then the consolidation that ended in 2019, Ethereum rose by 50x.

11. So, I think there is a massive move coming in Ethereum driven by a couple of things. One is tokenization. And the second is agentic AI. So, uh I'm going to have to go through these pretty quickly, but I think that this means you can get something like a 25x for Ethereum. So, I've talked a lot about tokenization in the past, so I'm going to fly through this.

12. Uh you can look at our other presentations about this, but I think we're going through a an important moment in the financial system not too different than 1971, which is that tokenization is a time when we're making almost every asset synthetic. And it follows a road map that happened when the US went off the gold standard in '71.

13. It led to unleashing a huge innovation of products from money market funds to currency futures to CDOs to index futures all because the US was trying to preserve the sovereignty of the dollar when we went off the gold standard. Well, I think that's happening today because now we're we're digitizing everything.

14. And look, even Jamie Dimon, the biggest skeptic on blockchain, even recently stated that crypto is better than the current financial system. And what all this means in our view is that blockchains should gain relevance against crypto's store value, which is Bitcoin. And so, in our minds, the way to think about the future of Ethereum is it's price ratio to Bitcoin.

15. Now the 8-year average is 0.0479. The high was 0.087. And what does that mean for the price of Ethereum? Well, we think fair value for Bitcoin is 250,000. And so if Ethereum goes back to the 8-year average, that's 12,000. [snorts] If Ethereum goes back to its 2021 high of the price ratio, that's 22,000 Ethereum.

16. Of course, I think it's better positioned today than it was in 2021. And so that gets us to what we think is the payment rails number, that Ethereum is going to be roughly a quarter of the value of Ethereum of Bitcoin. And that gets you to 62,000. And that's kind of following uh the previous historical price cycles, that if you look at the last crypto lows and make a composite of where Ethereum could be in roughly 3 years, that would be a 30x, and that would take us to around 60,000.

17. Tom Lee continued to confidently emphasize that Ethereum could completely reshape the world, as he believes it may surge beyond $60,000. Once all the key factors align and momentum builds, the market could accelerate rapidly. He also maintains that Bitcoin has the potential to surpass $200,000, which is exactly where our attention should be right now.

18. Many people get distracted by short-term noise, but the long-term outlook is what truly matters. If you've been following the crypto market for a while, now is the time to act so you don't get left behind by what's coming. Stay focused on that. As always, avoid panic selling. Don't sell just because prices are rising.

19. Take a step back and concentrate on the bigger picture because today's prices may look insignificant compared to where things could go in the future.