저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
요약 보기
비트코인은 현재 투기적 자산이며 유동성 깊이가 부족해 법정화폐 대체 불가. 디플레이션 위험 시나리오 확률이 높아지면 금 대체 자산(quasi 금본위)으로 부상 가능하나 10년 장기 궤적. 비트코인은 0 또는 수백만 달러의 이진적 투자. 프라이버시·대체가능성 부족으로 중앙은행 구조적 보유는 불가, 현재는 ETF·개인 영역에 머묾. 본인은 2013년 이후 추가 매수 없음, 대부분 회사를 통해 보유.
다듬은 글
That lack of fungibility and privacy is a huge deterrent for broad structural adoption. That's what you need to then add another 10x of market cap. I've always thought of Bitcoin as a very binary investment. Whether it goes from 80 to 8,000 to 6,000 to 3,000 to 13,000, it just it doesn't matter. This is either zero or it's millions.
We are driving, slowly, but we are driving towards a top of a cliff. You need to get out. If you are a Bitcoin holder or an investor, you need to pay very close attention to this market analysis because Chamath Palihapitiya is about to break down his latest update on the current state of the Bitcoin market.
And he's going completely unfiltered this time. His level of honesty stands out as he shares bold statements about what's really driving Bitcoin and the potential risks we could be facing right now. So, let's take a moment and hear exactly what he has to say next. Um, in 2003, oh, sorry, 2013, um, I bought a lot.
And at one point, I think I I had almost 5% of all the Bitcoins. Uh, my basis is about 80 bucks a coin. Um, I've never bought more. Um, most of my Bitcoin now sit with a company. Um, and, you know, they use it for trading purposes. They use it to run, uh, bunch of other strategies. And, uh, I did that mostly for safety and security and peace of mind.
I didn't want to deal with it. Um, I wanted to own equity in a business. Um, that equity can be hedged. That equity can be tax structured advantageously. And then it allows them to run a big business which generates cash and I can get a cash and, you know, dividend stream. Um, so, I have not bought since I, uh, initially, uh, basically wrote that article for Bloomberg in 2013.
Um, my thoughts are the following. Right now, I think what you're seeing is that it's still a speculative instrument and it's too speculative for it to be reliable. Um, so if you're going to make the case that, you know, it should replace fiat currency, well, one thing you have to look at is the volatility of the US dollar and you can't replace it with something that's nine sigma more volatile.
It doesn't work. Um, and the reason it doesn't work is that it's too, again, going back to what markets are important. The only market that's even more important than the debt markets are the currency markets. And [snorts] what you see is enormous amounts of liquidity where 5% moves, so 500 basis point moves are newsworthy.
Well, those 500 basis point moves in the absence of some massive exogenous event take years to play out. And in that, there's value because it allows more market participants to be active in that market so that they can use it as a a critical pillar of how they run their business. But now, all of a sudden, if you have 2,000 basis point moves a half hour, you can't effectively use it.
And so, what it does is it pushes it into this ghetto of day traders and and speculators. And right now, that's where we are. We're in that ghetto. And you need to get out. And the way that it gets out is that you need to flush the speculators and day traders out. And you need to have still some basis of interest from long-term holders.
And then you need to have it slowly look like the traditional infrastructure could really implode. So, again, I go back to we are driving, slowly, but we are driving towards a top of a cliff. And then, we're going to drive much, much faster down that cliff or down that hill. And at the end of it is a is a huge brick wall.
The way we avoid it is by pivoting to a resilient economy where we introduced inefficiency and cost and inflate our way out of it or debasement. The path dependence for Bitcoin is if it looks like path two is likely, it will really emerge um as a flight to safety. And over the next 10 years where this trajectory is going to take shape and it is a 10-year trajectory, um you'll have a lot of time to vector into it um to protect yourself and to hedge yourself.
And I have always thought of Bitcoin as a very binary investment. Whether it goes from 80 to 8,000 to 6,000 to 3,000 to 13,000, it just it doesn't matter. This is either zero or it's millions. It will create a quasi gold standard. It'll create an index um except instead of having to own gold where gold is owned by central banks, it is an instrument that has value that's determined by and between its participants and it's owned by everybody.
So, maybe the correct way to say this is that it's not gold but in gold being gold 2.0, which some people have used about Bitcoin, what it does is it replaces the the method of value transfer that you need for fiat money to be valuable. But that only happens if the US dollar looks like it's going to careen into this wall.
But now, if the probability, you know, was 1% that that it would be valuable, unfortunately, the probability is now probably like 5 or 10%. Um and there is a real chance by 2030 um we don't find a way to inflate our way out of this. And that the only way to break the back of deflation is essentially to create some quasi form of gold standard, but it'll be almost impossible to do that between governments and central banks.
They'll never agree on an instrument and they'll never agree on an exchange, but then bottoms up, people could decide to do it. I think the reality is that Bitcoin for the most part at this point is there's a structural failing in Bitcoin that I think people will need to come and wrap their heads around.
The structural failing is that it is not So, if you think about like what is the value maximizing function right now for for a crypto asset to be broadly adopted, it needs to have the the the features that allow a central bank to adopt it. And there are two things that it lacks. You know, one is fungibility and two is privacy.
And so Bitcoin fails on those two dimensions. So, it can never be a structural holding of a central bank. And that simple thing will keep it in the realm of ETFs and humans. When there's a public ledger that says this address has this much. And you can't really trade it because you know the history and the provenance of that exact token.
It's been used to buy this. It was transacted over here. Went to this wallet. That lack of fungibility and privacy is a huge deterrent for broad structural adoption. That's what you need to then add another 10X of market cap. So, is there room for a different crypto asset that solves for the privacy and fungibility?
Yeah, and are there projects right now? Yes, but they're very small scale. There's huge issues with them. Those are even more volatile. Um so, Bitcoin's interesting. Chamath Palihapitiya continued to urge people to take the time to truly understand this asset class. Emphasizing that while Bitcoin has the potential to reach $1 million, it also carries the risk of going to zero.
Because of that, he stresses the importance of strong conviction that it won't collapse, that adoption will continue to expand, ETFs will accelerate further, institutions will keep increasing their exposure, and Bitcoin will ultimately rise over time. This level of belief is what helps drive value and price growth, especially as major players like Michael Saylor and other influential figures continue pushing the space forward, reinforcing confidence across the broader market, and attracting new investors globally.
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