저자: JimCramer · 외국인
요약 보기
TSMC 실적 호조(매출 39%↑, 1분기 가이던스 25~25.8B달러, 자본지출 380~420억달러 상향)로 반도체 장비주가 급등. 엔비디아는 TSMC 실적 대비 주가가 덜 올라 따라잡기 여지가 있다는 취지. 트럼프 관세가 예상보다 작을 것이라는 기대와 Stargate 등 AI 인프라 투자가 랠리 배경. 장기적으로 엔비디아가 AI 산업혁명의 수혜자라는 낙관론, 단기 조정 가능성도 언급.
다듬은 글
there were a lot of great things going on last week so so many that we really didn't get to cover them all in depth so aside from the cool that expected inflation meetings and the teric bank earnings well let's talk about another huge positive last week we got a very encouraging earnings report from Taiwan semiconductor Manufacturing Company AKA Taiwan semi or just tsmc for short the world's leading semiconductor manufacturer reported excellent numbers early last Thursday uh which was strong enough to spark a strong rally for basically the entire sector yes this stock is that important while Taiwan semi itself was only up 1.5% by the end of last week the company's commentary was so positive that the Philadelphia semiconductor index finished the week up 5.4% even LLY worm Intel managed to become one of the five best performing stocks just before voted list we got more than 12% and many other chip plays had huge gains especially the S conductor Capital Equipment names let's talk about those there's a reason these stocks ran Taiwan semi delivered 39% Revenue growth year-over-year 57% earnings with these are extraordinary numbers neither of those were big surprises because the company releases monthly Revenue results so he had a very good idea of how much money they were really making but you know what was the surprise Taiwan semi's guidance for the first quarter of 2025 in the first quarter Taiwan semi expects revenue of 25 to 25.8 billion which would represent an increase of 33 to 37% year-over year and based on the company's exchange rate assumptions they're expecting gross margin profits between 57 and 59% up from 53 3% in the first quarter of last year now ai all these numbers they were substantially ahead of expectations that's what you need to know management explained that the company's strong results in the fourth quarter were driven not surprisingly by the high performance Computing division which encompasses the AI and smartphone and markets and made up 53% of their sales in the quarter Taiwan semi's leadership in manufacturing AI accelerators like nvidia's best chips Remains the key driver of their success the best analog is indeed Nvidia Taiwan semi said after AI accelerator Revenue tripled and accounted for about 20% of Revenue in 2024 they expect it to double again into 2025 imagine thinks the strength in this theme will continue for a while over the next 5 years they expect the revenue to rise at a 20% compound annual growth rate and AI is the main catalst for that growth as Taiwan semi expects a mid 40% growth rate for AI accelerators during the same period now like I said earlier the pin action from this Taiwan semi quarter was extensive and some of the biggest beneficiaries were the semiconductor Capital Equipment companies that well these are huge huge uh makers of equipment that Taiwan semi buys appli materials rallied 4.5% last Thursday and is now at more than 8% in the three trading days since the quarter amazing first supplier lammer search gained 4% on Thursday it's now up 7% over 3 days K rallied 4.3% is now up more than 7% since Taiwan semi quarter that is serious pin action so why did Tai one semi quarter spark such a big rally for the semi equipment uh Capital Equipment sector simple in addition to all of its bullish revenue and margin guidance for the first quarter 2025 and the positive commentary about its long-term Revenue growth potential Taiwan semi also disclosed his Capital Equipment budget for full year 2025 it was enormous company expects to spend 38 to 42 billion doll in C backs this year which would be up between 28 and 41% from last year and was well above the 36.4 billion number that Wall Street was expeced by the way management said that about 70% of his capex budget would be spent on quote Advanced processed Technologies and quote now again equipment to make gpus and other accelerators basically chips from Nvidia and they're init imitators I was very surprised that Nvidia didn't go up even more last week it's prob catching up now in the world of stock markets one question seems to Echo louder than others when will Nvidia go higher this intriguing query was recently posed by cnbc's Jim Kramer igniting a flurry of speculation and interest with Nvidia under renewed Market scrutiny various elements from profitable supplier earnings to geopolitical tensions appear to be creating a perfect storm around this Tech giant key players in this unfolding drama include Taiwan semiconductor manufacturing nvidia's key supplier and Tech behemoths like Microsoft Amazon and meta who have paused significant orders as the stock market awaits with baited breath the story behind nvidia's current standing is both compelling and complex welcome back to invest talky that robust Capital Equipment uh expenditure guide is why the sem ductor Capital Equipment group has caught fire over the past few days Capital spending from the world's largest Foundry and that's a name for a big manufacturing facility means money spent on the massive big ticket pieces of equipment supplied by the Applied Materials lamb resarch K and Dutch asml of the world the fact that so much of Taiwan semi's capex budget is going towards a advanced process technology is also a huge positive because those are the latest and greatest and most expensive pieces of equipment these Capital Equipment uh companies sell now but there was more to this move than just the explicit numbers that Taiwan semi put out while the semicondctor capital equipment companies have been terrific long-term performers and started out last year hot do you know they've basically been losers for the past 6 months or so in fact these stocks sold off in the second half of last year so only apply material in K actually finished the year in positive territory and all four significantly underperformed the sp500 in 2024 maybe haven't missed any of everything here throughout that time the narra shifted from immense opportunity represented by the latest chips like AI accelerators to concerns about why the full opportunity might not be realized whether that's because of some unsubstantiated rumor about delayed production for NVIDIA chips we hear that constantly right that drove the stock down last week or more recently the export controls that the United States was trying to impose to limit AI development by some of our greatest geopolitical foes especially China these companies gave up billions of dollars in business when Biden cracked down Chinese ordering periodically concerns also emerg whether the hyperscalers are certainly investing lot tons of money in AI infrastructure now maybe the Investments aren't sustainable and will need to be paired back in the future perhaps substantially and an uneven process in the market for some of the more basic chips hasn't helped the group either long story short I think the breakout and the semiu Capital Equipment group is a reflection of investors starting to think once again about the scale of the opport Unity not about what's dismal but the opportunity ahead for these companies Taiwan semi management team spelled out that opportunity so eloquently in its earning report and the associated conference call last week and investors finally began to realize that some of the restrictions on some of our most advanced semiconductor Technologies might soon be coming to an end as the Biden administration's time is over I'm not sure about that that's what people are thinking oh by the way of course on a day when Oracle saw back in open AI also announced plans to spend $100 billion on new AI infrastructure just for starters I'm also not as concerned about the idea that the hyperscalers might need to slow down their AI spending probably because I've heard from Nvidia Jensen Wong over and over about the impressive Returns on investment that customers can get from their purchase of his most advanced AI product frankly I don't think the opportunity for these semiconductor Capital Equipment companies was ever really that diminished even when their stocks were getting clobber last year there was just a perception problem and it's always hard to move the crowd when a group's out of favor but with its bullish report last Thursday Taiwan semi was able to remind investors how powerful this theme is remind you how powerful this theme is essentially resetting the entire narrative for everyone operating the high-end semiconductor world the tale of nvidia's recent market performance is as thrilling as a blockbuster complete with plot twists that no one saw coming on one hand tsmc has reported earnings surpassing expectations with $224 per share on a revenue of 26.8 billion doar this would usually be a cause for celebration but instead seems to have put further pressure on Nvidia the world of stocks is indeed a capricious one adding to nvidia's narrative are the geopolitical chess moves playing out on the global stage former President Joe Biden's Administration has introduced new semiconductor export restrictions to China which could potentially slice nvidia's chip Market by half yet amidst these challenges nvidia's story isn't just about present woses but future possibilities the company is looking Beyond its current Horizon towards the promising realm of quantum Computing a frontier as puzzling as it is exciting is rally is built on the back of tariffs more specifically smaller than expected tariffs that could grow bigger if countries don't play ball it's built on the backs of new projects like Stargate a new AI infrastructure uh initiative that's packed by open AI Oracle and soft bag to put up new data centers filled No Doubt with orders from Nvidia equipment and it's cemented by the appearance of all the big Tech Executives at the new president's inauguration what a difference from 2017 when Trump's presidency was contentious and a lot of Executives didn't want to have anything to do with it but let's go back to what's really driving in today's markets the terrs which turned out to be all bark no bite at least so far lots of people thought that Trump would kick off his second turn by stoking a huge trade war against China the repercussions would be gigantic sure some money would come into the treasury thanks to the tffs but China might then retaliate and then we come right back and Tit for Tat for Tit for Tat and who knews where it would go I didn't see it that way because Trump told me that it might not happen I want you to take a listen to what he said right after he was elected when I asked him right here on the floor of the exchange about China we having a lot of talks with China we have a good relationship with China I have a surprising relationship now when the co came in uh I sort of cut it off that was a step too far that was as they say a bridge too far but uh we've been talking and discussing with President she some things and others other world leaders and I think we're going to do very well all around well he said it for many it's a remarkable turn of events a light hand when it comes to China maybe even lighter than President Biden who threw his assistance would constantly Hector the Chinese chiefly about Advanced semic ductors but also about their dubious Trade Practices I think Trump finally realized that we never really got anything from the Chinese by playing tough they didn't even try to appease us they gave us nothing maybe he's got a plan but no matter what the actual tariff plan was a pure underr promise overd deliver Rost that got Wall Street very excited about a new more flexible Trump regime when we sold the Smoke Clear despite the acknowledgement that practical Quantum Computing may be decades away nvidia's commitment underscored by their upcoming Quantum day at the GTC conference remains unstinting in a recent blog post Microsoft encouraged businesses to prepare to be Quantum ready by 2025 suggesting that the journey May indeed be the destinaini Jensen in conclusion The Saga surrounding Nvidia is one of both caution and hope while geopolitical struggles and internal technical hiccups have cast a shadow over its recent stock performance the company's foresight and dedication to emerging Technologies signify a robust potential for growth as we continue to observe nvidia's navigation through intricate challenges one can only Ponder what are your thoughts on where this Tech Giant will head next your Insight might just be the key to unlocking the next chapter
Comments 0