Raamdeo Agrawal, Chairman, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Talks to ET Now on budget expectations

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결론: 예산 자체보다 기업 이익 회복과 재정 여력이 시장의 핵심 동력이며, 이익 성장 모멘텀이 지속되는 한 상승 기조를 기대하지만 과열 후 차익실현과 글로벌 변수(미국 금리·인플레이션·원자재)는 리스크로 봄. 기업이익 전망: 최근 12개월간 기업 이익 회복 속도가 매우 놀랍다고 평가하며 모멘텀이 이어지길 기대함. 금융 섹터는 신용비용 감소와 대출 확대로 포트폴리오에 포함되어야 한다고 봄. 금융은 가장 큰 섹터, IT는 두 번째로 큰 섹터이며 IT도 호황이라고 언급. 성장률 가정: 실질 GDP 성장률 약 8.5% 가정 시 기업 이익이 크게 늘어날 것이라 봄. 명목 GDP 성장률 14% 수준에서 기업에 긍정적이라고 설명. 예산 시장 반응: 사회자는 부동산, 클린수소, 전기차, 호텔·레저 관련주를 예산 수혜 후보로 제시하고 DLF 등을 언급. 정부 지분매각(민영화) 후보로 Shipping Corporation, BML, Container Corporation, IDBI Bank 등을 거론하며 에어인디아 민영화 사례를 들어 섹터 역학 변화 가능성을 언급. 시장 평가: 이번 예산은 해롭지 않고 점진적 긍정 수준이며 대형 호재(빅뱅)는 아니라는 시각. 재정 여력이 커서 재정 지출 여지가 있다고 봄. 리스크: 시장 리스크는 미국 및 글로벌 금리·인플레이션·원자재 가격과 연준 등 주요국 정책 행태. 최근 2년간 랠리 후 차익실현 매물 우려 언급.

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01. and in seconds from now sunil singhanya they also would be joining us the three wise men like i always call them they are there live on this budget day on your favorite channel eating now ramdevji good morning let me start with you first uh in the overall scheme of things for an investor like you budget will not change anything but given that last year budget changed the dynamics of the thought process of government's thinking what are you likely to see i'm asking you this question because last budget re-rated the market you know i think uh in last 12 months two three things have put you in the corporate profitability side it has been a huge surprise the pace at which corporate earnings recover post the second order pending that is quite stunning and that momentum is on and hopefully uh with the with a great expansion and credit cost contraction i think uh financial sector uh should be should be in your pack and second that's the largest sector second largest is et sorry i.t and i t in any case is booming so you have a lot of uh fireworks out there and particularly if uh expected gdp growth is about eight and a half it doesn't matter from this sector it comes but in aggregate if you get about eight and a half percent kind of thing i think corporate profits will just boom and that is where my focus is where which way the aggregate corporate profits are going the sectors post budget we can figure out uh where the television becomes stronger or the new typically starts but just getting that eight it can happen one of those i think broadly if we are able to achieve equality at a higher definition of six percent eight percent currently fourteen percent normal gdp growth rate i think that's there's a lot for the good corporates well good morning to you thank you for joining us always look forward to your thoughts on the budget day especially sunil let's go to our budget heat map stocks where we feel that there could be some budget action and policy reaction real estate stocks clean hydrogen companies ev companies obviously hospitality hotel these stocks would be in demand in terms of where the market positioning would be trying to address the trader here that's one important heat map which in a sense would tell us which way the market mood is moving and they go you got indian hotels something could come for real estate for the hospitality industry let's look at dlf see these are some of the stocks where you may actually see some action coming in real estate could be a force multiplier force multiplier sector so to speak i want to also look at some possible government disinvestment names shipping corporation bml what is happening to container corporation idvi bank remember these are not new names these are names where the intention to privatize and intention to sale has already happened now we can endlessly get into this argument and say this all nothing happened yes nothing happened but air india happened and more than strategic more than disinvestment strategic privatization it happens it just changes the dynamics of the sector ramdavji let's look at this scenario which is more like a realistic scenario that this is a no harm budget nothing detrimental incremental positive nothing big bang but the direction remains very clear do you think markets post this event risk is behind us could stabilize risk to the market is the global and what happens in u.s what happens to the global inflation commodity prices and the behavior of the fis so it is not the trouble i don't see i mean worthwhile trouble here because fiscal space is so big we have used the monitor space fiscal is now going to be used because there you'll have a bumper tax collection you have six and a half percent fiscal let's say unprecedented amount of money in the hands of finance minister so i don't think there'll be periphering on any sector now who gets the big big one that we have to see in the course of the day uh but the risk to the market is uh maybe two years rally which has happened uh so there's a lot of profit booking second is the i think fi which owns almost part risk i see otherwise