저자: Henry · 외국인
요약 보기
엔비디아는 GTC 행사(3/17~21) 기대감으로 이번 주 5~10%, 130달러 이상 상승 여지가 있다고 봄. 시총 3조달러는 적정 가치로 보며 DCF 모델 적정가 117.85달러, 단기 기대감으로 150달러까지 가능하다고 주장. 장기 LEAP 옵션 활용(자산의 약 10%)을 권장하며 1년물 콜옵션 예시를 제시.
다듬은 글
Nvidia stock has a monster move from $107 per share up to $121 per share and this week is going to be a massive week for Nvidia because they have the GTC conference on March 17th to the 21st and I have some really important research that I'm going to reveal to you in this video and an updated price target on Nvidia.
A lot of my students are asking me if it's time to buy Nvidia, to purchase more shares, to continue to dollar cost average and to even buy leap options. And I think the answer to those is yes. Because Nvidia has the GTC event, the stock definitely has more room to run and I think Jensen Huang is going to have some big news for us.
In fact, I just redid my price target for Nvidia stock. So, let me walk you through everything and let me get to the point. As always, I respect your time, so here's a quick summary of this video. I'm going to be discussing Nvidia's GTC event, Nvidia's valuation and my price target and leap options on Nvidia.
So, let's get started. Starting with the GTC event, Blackwell architecture is going to be a main focus for me. This year's keynote is expected to showcase the Blackwell Ultra GB300 series, which promises over 50% more memory capacity and higher performance compared to previous models. I'm freaking excited for this.
I think this innovation is going to be clear to the market and the AI capacity that Nvidia is really fueling and the impact they're having, it's very exciting. The GCC event has historically been a major catalyst for Nvidia stock and with the anticipated unveil of the Blackwell Ultra GB300 series, we could see significant investor demand and investor excitement.
Because that's what investors want. They want excitement, they want innovation, they want revenue and at the end of the day, they want bottom line earnings and cash flow. And I think that's exactly what Nvidia is doing. A lot of analysts are already speculating that these advancements will further cement Nvidia's dominance in the AI and the data center market, potentially driving the stock to new highs.
Now, if we take a look at the technical analysis, I don't think we're going to be at an all-time high this short in terms of just the GTC event being able to do that, but I do see an opportunity for Nvidia to go up 5% this week, maybe 10% this week if Jensen Huang and the rest of the keynote speech goes exactly as planned or basically gets investors excited, which I think is really the base case scenario.
So, this week I see a really huge opportunity in Nvidia stock going above $130 per share. You can actually see how Nvidia was trading for almost $150 per share in the beginning of the year. Nvidia was trading for almost $150 per share and it certainly had a lot of volatility. This is obviously due to the entire market selling off as well as Trump and tariff concerns, but this is actually a huge opportunity for Nvidia investors because the stock is just really too cheap under $120 per share.
And we can see that because the stock really hasn't stayed under $120 per share for longer than just a couple of weeks. The bottom of the Bollinger Band here is what I use basically to sell options and when I'm trading options in general. And the bottom of the Bollinger Band is $101. That means that it's very, very unlikely for Nvidia to go down there.
However, what's even more likely is the middle of the Bollinger Band, which is currently sitting at 123. I expect Nvidia to continue to rise and we see this huge momentum and a multi-day streak of the stock rising up. So, this week will be very important and I'm going to pay attention to the GTC event because it's really going to show what's next in AI.
Now, before going to leaps, I want to go into part two, which is the valuation of Nvidia. So, the US wants to be the global capital of AI. They're at a race with China and they really want to win. And Nvidia is really at the center of that and that's why the market cap is, you know, pretty expensive.
If I go to the summary right here, Nvidia just has fallen under 3 trillion in market cap, which I actually think is a very interesting valuation for one of the best companies in the world. I think in the next five or 10 years that Nvidia can be a $5 company. Now, in the short term, we are going to experience some volatility and I think the $3 market cap is not necessarily cheap, nor is it expensive.
It's a fair value for Nvidia where it's at today. It is very difficult to value Nvidia and I did spend lots of hours and actually for weeks and in years, I followed Nvidia back when I was still in college. What takes a lot of effort in actually understanding Nvidia and the general tech sector is the tech sector is prone to lots of regulation, to disruption, to capex spending and the spending of big tech, especially Nvidia.
How much money the big tech companies spend is exactly a lot of what goes into Nvidia's pocket. So, understanding the big tech spending is something that's very important. Now, the semiconductor space in particular is also extremely difficult to judge, especially in times of hype and volatility and lots of turmoil or like right now with the new president being in the office, lots of tariffs and, you know, deep fake.
has had a tremendous impact on the market. So, right now is some of the most exciting times to be invested and to be an investor, to be an option trader. And what I want to say about Nvidia is I do believe that the stock is a good value at 3 trillion and over the next 10 years, the stock will make back all of its market cap in the money that they produce.
And at the 10-year mark or the 5-year mark, right? I'm looking out into the future, I still think that the price-earnings ratio for Nvidia will be above average for the market, for sure, and above average for the Mag 7 companies. I did run a discounted cash flow model, which basically I spent my entire weekend on and I got a valuation of $117.85.
Now, remember there's lots of analysts on Wall Street, everyone has a different price target and that's simply what my discounted cash flow model told me. And my belief is that the GTC event will hype investors and release noteworthy news to get a short-term pump. Because again, remember, the market is a psychology game and it's not just based on pure cash flow.
So, although my cash flow model told me $117 per share, I believe that the market is very excited for Nvidia and the news that Jensen Huang comes out with during the GTC event will likely drive the stock higher. I also do want to point out that the stock has a lot of innovation and cash flow is coming in at a very fast rate.
So, once earnings come in and the rest of 2025 plays out, I do believe that Nvidia will see a boost in its stock price up to $150 per share. These are just my estimates. At the end of the day, I'm an investor, not a trader and I believe dollar cost averaging and option trading is much superior to just holding on to stocks, which brings me to the third part of this video, which is leap options.
Leap options are fantastic way to own a stock and they're actually freaking fantastic because they give you leverage. A leap option is literally leverage. An option is already leveraged, but a leap option is beautiful because a leap option gives you 100 shares of ownership of a stock, but at a much reduced cost.
And that's really beneficial because if you're not looking to buy 100 shares of Nvidia and spend over $10,000, you can just buy a leap option. Let's go over an example of what a leap option looks like on Nvidia. So, when I'm buying a leap option, I'm typically going out at least 9 months, but 1 year is even better.
So, I'm going to go out about 1 year on expiration. You can see here how that will be about March 20th of 2026. And if you're looking to buy a leap option, the whole goal is you want exposure to the stock. You believe the stock has long-term potential because a leap option helps you make money when the stock goes up.
And a leap option, because it's 1 year out, has lots of things that can happen, right? First of all, just the time itself, the volatility of the stock, earnings coming in and the leap option will capture all of that over a 1-year period. So, this is actually a better way than just owning stock is to buy leap options as leap options give you the same upside with less capital up front.
Now, you do have to be careful leap options because if you buy a lot of them, you do have a lot of leverage. So, I would always say that you want to probably buy around 10% of your portfolio in leap options. Now, the leap option I'm going to be looking at in this example is I'm going to actually open up a few.
So, if I go to the 120, delta here is 0.64, the volume is huge and implied volatility is 51 um with a really good bid-ask spread. Now, if you want a lot of exposure into Nvidia stock, you can simply go for something that's a lot like a lot more in the money like this 100 strike price, which is a 76 delta, still really good volume, high implied volatility and good bid-ask spread.
So, this right here will cost you $3800 and this will help you control 100 shares of Nvidia rather than having to buy 100 shares at $121, which would cost over 12 grand. So, instead of 12 grand, you only have to pay less than 4 grand. This is like basically 1/3 of the price of owning 100 shares of Nvidia.
That's the advantage of a leap option. Now, obviously you can see right here that you have unlimited upside. However, your break-even has to be a little bit higher since, you know, nothing is free in life and the reason why you can have 100 shares of Nvidia stock for a fraction of the cost, well, there's a little bit of a trade-off and that trade-off is that you need the stock to go up a little bit more than the initial $121 to, you know, you can see the beginning part here is something that you have to overcome because you have to pay a little bit of a premium.
You have to pay a premium for, you know, the opportunity to put up a lot less capital. So, of course it's it's a trade-off, but I think this trade-off right here is a very interesting trade-off because look, what can happen is essentially, let's say that Nvidia goes to um $150 per share, all right? If it went up to $150 per share, then the gain that you would have is going to be 150 minus your break-even and our break-even here is $138 roughly.
So, you would have a $12 gain on an investment of 38, which is a 33% return, okay? So, if Nvidia goes to 150, you have a 33% return. However, here if Nvidia were to go up to 150, it would have, you know, about a $30 return from the current level. And, you know, 150 divided by 120 is going to be is going to be roughly a 25% return.
So, the difference is actually not that big at expiration, but you have to keep in mind that you don't have to hold a leap option until expiration. So, what I usually do is I take profits pretty early in a leap option. It is very sensitive to price changes. So, like for example, if Nvidia went up $10 in the short term, well, $10 move on Nvidia is like less than 10%.
However, for the option, a $10 move would be roughly, you know, you take the $10, you multiply by the delta, it'd be roughly about $7 worth of a move considering gamma as well. Gamma would increase delta. So, with an $8 move, $8 divided by 38, if you look at 8 divided by 38, you got a 21% return while the stock itself only moved less than 10%.
So, in a very short amount of time, in like 1 month, you can make a 21% return off of a leap option even if the stock moves less than 10%. So, given that the GTC event is happening, I think it'd be a really interesting opportunity to buy some leap option. Again, this is just an example of a leap option.
I don't currently have any leap options open on Nvidia, but I may open some up in my Discord community this week. If you enjoyed the research in this video, make sure to subscribe. If you want my plays, it's the first link in the description. Otherwise, I'll make sure to keep you updated on Nvidia and what happens during the GTC event. I'll see you guys in the next video.
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