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well my guest on the show is someone who has tracked over 30 budget speeches I have tracked over 20 budget speeches with him I don't know about Aisha 15 little less than that we not revealing ages here we can pretty much guge there's a trend here so this is our 35th budget speech must be something like that 35 Plus last count has it changed according to you over the years has it drastically changed I think the information flow is different you know when you to do in 85 you struggling where is a television whether it is working or not look at the antenna those kind of troubles were there smooth Absolut is coming to you you know and even the finance ministers have a much better data set and presentation is far more smooth data flows earlier budget is budget papers used to come in middle of the night you know you used to buy pay 10,000 bucks and actual physical copy used to come 12 night so people start we used to start reading at middle of the night and then by Morning by chance we are ready m now as a budget speech is coming it's all getting flashed all over the world it's very different thing so you'll get lot of analytical uh stuff if at all there is one uh literally uh on the spot so today you think it'll be more of a vision statement that's what pm has indicated I so far our information is that much only but I think see budget is what budget is a income expenditure account of government how how the revenue will be mobilized by government report card not report card actually accounts it's like a 31st March for any company so uh this is the 31st March of year end of government and government is forecasting it is not allowed for the companies but uh not only it says the revised budget how we have done in 23 24 it will also say Our intention is to we expect 24 25 will flow like this if there's no covid so so it is like the annual report and the report card relased same and guidance and guidance guidance so uh the guys who understand budget making process and those who are macro economists and all they'll be able to understand basically how government is going to spend in next 12 months how the how Railways will get how much Railways will get how much uh tourism will get how much for other caps like Road and all so all those allocations will be there because this government most likely is going to continue for the uh rest of the term so there's no point in making one number today and after four four months again revise the numbers I think you are going to get full-fledged budget today only some some portion of speeches which are not allowed to be done like some tax changes or something some minor stuff in any case with GST there's no indirect tax problems it's only about direct taxes so in direct taxes also nowadays there are not many changes so I think for very little be left meaningfully the real budget bulk of the stuff will come accounts will come and he has also said it will be disha NES budget so what all they want to do if they come back will also be there so Market doesn't want anything more than that so it'll be a lot of fun what could be the surprise I don't see anybody talking about tourism for that matter I don't see anybody talking about energy transition lot of reports which we've read they only focused about capital expenditure role rways energy transition manufacturing no now raway budget is also part of the general bug so raway budg how exactly Railways have done in terms of their operating ratios and how exactly the capex will build up because cap last year raway has been one of the large driver of capex so like two 2 and half lakh they proposed last year will they take it further up uh say to 4 lakh CR or something like that because you can dump lot of money and it generates a lot of excitement in terms of Aggregates the Contracting companies so Market is very and right now the shape in which Market is Market is looking for just an but that is something that the market has priced in right when it comes to Railways I don't know how much is priced in this Market but uh I'm just saying that what the budget will show and then after that you have to interpret what if it is there in the price or it is aprice to you speaking of priced into the market do you think that even that government continuity and all of it seems to be priced into the market I think so if if in on the floor of U Parliament if PM is saying that he expects to be Runing for the third term what more is left to be said I mean I mean you know that even the speculation Market uh I mean the even money is about 325 seats for BJP so I think there is nothing to say that uh it won won't happen but it's 99.9% types you know 0 1% in democracy and uh lot of things can happen in next 3 4 months so that op so so particularly foreigners Indians I think they are all in the bus foreigners will have their own kind of interpretation used to call this as kulja Simpson what is that first thing that comes to your mind when I say kulja Simpson let's first recap all the ji pitaras what we've opened and I'll be very quick here madus Sudan VI Kia these are the the Madan he opened it for us sha Medicare juin fova PR what is the opening RI DHI the opening that's for youc Pam Pharma uh Vijay kadia what is he looking at you just uh you know saw him in the morning this is like the real kulja Simson if you ask me omcs pil engineering and Atul Auto now let's open the jiara of Mr ramal Market financials that's it capital market stocks Capital market stocks so that is ramdev agrawal's kulja simsim Capital Market and fin Capital Market related Financial stocks can you explain this for a yeah so this is a this is not a very organized there's no ETF also on this this is a slightly ignored category it was always there we made our career in here but this includes exchanges so mother of all the exchanges NS is not listed so exchanges all types of exchanges your uh uh uh then comes the asset management companies then comes the wealth management companies deposit uh whole lot of other participants so whoever is uh there in the so basically the beauty of this is that you are getting unprecedented flow of clients in 75 years you got 40 million in next 10 years you'll get 500 400 million customers every month we getting 4 million so this unprecedented kind of a influx expansion of the market so all these uh companies uh they are going to have great time uh so so one is that second is that economy is also doing very well so that is supported by the corer earnings growth that you'll see uh as it pans out whether I think this quarter is about 17 18% so if we keep a pace of 178% and there is no reating I think markets will keep giving say 15 17% and that is good enough to keep the crowd excited because the other alternative is just about 5 6% of the fixed income but is the crowd of the foreign institutional investors do we need to keep them them excited or will the domestic all see first thing is you can't you can't do anything specifically for foreigners they have lot of options to go to China or some other place lose money gain money our retail or our guys they are going to be stuck in India so I can predict what Indians will do I can't predict what foreigners will do but finally foreigners also have they canot see India is going to become in next four years 8 to9 trillion 88 to9 trillion market cap economy which is where China is today so I can if the China doesn't move move up we might be in four to 5 years overtake China in terms of market cap in a healthy way okay so uh so this is a very significant development I don't know how exactly it works out in macroeconomics how governments can use it because the market doesn't belong to government it belongs to you and me so uh but it has economic effect there's a wealth effect the econom is driven by the wealth effect so there's a huge impact it's not just an isolated number so but I'm not the guy to figure out uh how it works but I can see because if index does 15% and new insurances it will boom new insurances will boom because vations are very rich so all the issuers all the entrepreneurs they will issue shares so combination of share issuance last year market cap grew by 29% when index went up by uh 20% so there is a 9 to 10% new issuance coming so if my I grow 15% by index another 10% will come because of issuance Market EXP so 25% you do in 3 years you'll go from 4 and half trillion to 9 trillion where China is today okay so that means double double so index I it may not be the index right market cap yeah so market cap could double yes so ramv G if the market cap doubles which is about 4 trillion to about 8 trillion in 3 years then we are looking at not one but dozens of multi Baggers dozens of stocks which could be not necessary you see dozens of companies see will do well but what I'm saying is the biggest beneficiary will be the Capital Market participants okay because the you see the volumes what is happening it is growing at 100% year on year and it is accelerating so because there'll be more companies more participants more allocation so it's a l effect I have a quick question I have a quick question for aan and for Aisha which is one company which is in broking Capital markets mutual funds and wealth management we having ankor chat here we're having ankor chat anart no recommendation just to establish that when you see Capital Market business what definition are we talking about no what he's trying to say is rise with India if you're betting on India if you're betting on Prosperity wealth Across the Nation I would buy if it is listed you know but it's is not listed so yet so but then because all the action is there all the action is there and nobody can see my company be competed by somebody else somebody else can get market share from me people can go come but exchanges dominates yeah absolutely okay all right now markets are looking quite warmed up uh and uh things are looking quite charged up at least in the defense Railways on some of the other sectors now Ram G specifically to let's say psus this is where the real pot of the gold has been which one uh psus PSU the pot of gold has been if there is a decent allocation to capital expenditure will markets consider that as look this sector will continue to hum because it's a pure play on government expenditure it is not a you know play so much so on anything else if government is spending these sectors will grow these companies will do well sure can I simplified that no it will benefit but you know today government was supposed to sell big chunk of the assets that has not happen in last one year so do you think it will happen next year if if government is has no intention to further sell whether they want to sell it or not so those things so one is demand side of course the earning side will be positive in those relevant companies but other side is whether they will sell at all you know because that can puncture the entire multiple rise see it is not about the earnings this entire game in last 6 months 8 months in the market is not about the earnings it is all about the rting which sector which compan is getting rated steeply 3x 4X I mean earnings don't grow 3 4X do what do what you you can but uh the 5p multiple going to 10 and another thing is that to be fair with the psus for last 15 years they have been hammered left right in irres to the merits of the companies that I mean it had become a headed stock used to touch them yes so in just 12 months or 18 months this change it has become darling from head to Darling and that Chang the reating from 4p to 15p or 18p and it's still it is I don't think all the stocks are at a top of the line kind of valuation they're still at below 20 indexp so I think there could be still some scope because the new budget new government uh the selling of the psus and all by government I think it's still away there's one line which we used extensively couple of uh years ago was quality at any price ah is that trade over why not PS at any price so you know I mean Market has its own mood in 2 I mean I have seen 40 years all kinds of things working I mean in hash time it was the junkiest possible stock The Bluest of Blue Chip then in 200 it was all the technology anything to do with the technology.com was crazily up hundreds of stocks then 2008 all kinds of commodity companies led by China that was a one then all the mortgage companies and real estate companies DF tou that time 1200 rupees or something like that and from there it fell to double digit yeah 780 buck so that's the kind of Market is was 1200 right was 70 was right so you know uh so Market has this tendency so what they doing today you can see the trends and once the trend starts then the crowd is swelling every day and the trend getting its own Moment Like a twister you know it just keeps fitting itself and uh we are going to get many of them I mean it's not that this itself will take us to the end of the bull rally it people get tired somewhere and then they'll pick up another sector you know and then that sector will just go out of sh would you think that place would be psus if I I I don't have any knowledge what right now you know where the Twister is that is clearly visible to you you know which sector is in favor and uh like power and all utilities they were completely out of action today power is doing very well psus are doing very well so these are all neglected sectors uh so where will the uh Energy new energy next 100 million guys will go you don't know you know we were mapping the returns as well from the last budget to this time around and there's that clear outperformance within the mid in the small cap something like a 60% plus return for the small cap index purched at alltime highs um what is your sense as to how investors should really look at opportunities within the broader end of the market see good thing is that uh in small midcap companies there are not 100 companies or 150 companies there are thousands of companies so there will be some companies which are out priced so you must definitely churn you must move away from there but necessarily not you don't have to buy sell small G and buy large cap that's not my recommendation if you are comfortable identifying a smaller companies some guys they say Sir don't me give me any stock which is more than th000 CR market cap so you know so stay in your circle of competence or area of smartness but if something has gone you bought at 10p mul has gone to 40p 50p book profits or get out and buy something else which is 11 15p and you have enough that is the beauty the market is very deep appreciate your time so glad you could join us and that Sim Sim let's open the simsim and then we'll talk about you know some budget maths which you really need to remember I'm going just walk it up and just for the benefit of our viewers those who have tuned in kja simsim I don't know how many times I've said this but uh this is what it is I mean some it's a special day some special picks from some very special guests I'll let the wall do all the Talking ramdev agrawal Capital Market financials anything which has got to do with exchanges demat Securities buy this entire chain so to speaked mad Rarity that you get some specific in terms of a name but he's got two ideas which he showed shared with us that where he's fully invested one is Shilpa Medicare and second is jubilant far MOA that's second third let's look at rabid darashi energy and financials pinjo what are the stock ideas he's looking at in terms of where money could be made lots of them actually omgc pamel farma vij kadia what is he bullish on in terms of name names and ideas that will also just come up and uh you that's the old picture of on ninja actually it's looking very different and uh let's look at vij kadia just bear with me for a second vij kadas and stock ideas will just come up on your screen just Sim Sim is getting slightly stuck you use the digital Locker here and there you go OMC fil engineering and a
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