저자: DanIves · 외국인
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엔비디아 실적(매출 300억달러, 4분기 가이던스 325억달러)은 강력하며 AI 인프라 수요는 초기 단계로 지속된다고 주장. 블랙웰 지연 우려는 해소되었고, 주가 급락은 과도하다고 봄. 2025년 기술주 상승을 전망하며 엔비디아 GPU 1달러당 기술 섹터 8~10배 승수 효과를 강조. 다만 중국 수출 규제 등 지정학적 리스크도 언급.
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I uh look CU me and you have talked about a lot like it's all about putting the data points together and you come out of that Calla I'd actually say incrementally more bullish not even just on Nidan but on the overall a and because of the blackw delet if there was GNA be one what I VI headwind or black cloud they put that to rest in terms of yields and and any of the issu there demands has STP and Supply anywhere from 10 to 15 to one right so when I look at the underlying Enterprise man not just in big Tech but even like when you look at Sovereign and you look at what I think ultimately is going to be the rest of sort of Enterprise this is a story I still you call it bottom of the first top of the second inning I continue to view it it's LeBron in high school in AC so you really so you really do still believe it's that early it's we're only only 3% maybe 5% tops of Enterprises globally have even gone down this path right so it comes down to like you know sometimes I think like it's very easy like not see far to the trees like in terms of like okay oober quarter 32 and a half billion Whispers 33 billion but now the focus more this is a company ultimately going toward 50 75 billion eventually 100 billion per quarter yeah and I think that to me is really the trend not just for NVIDIA but for what just means for the rest of the T in a world where technology constantly reshapes our economic landscape it's rare to encounter a stock market story so seismic that it makes both novices and Veterans sit up and take notice enter Nvidia the tech Titan that has recently catapulted itself to unprecedented Heights with nearly a 180% gain this year alone Nvidia has become one of the top perform forers in the SNP 500 Index yet in a Twist that could fuel a 100 water cooler debates the stock is showing signs of volatility just as it was approaching an all-time high set earlier this year with a dominant grasp on the AI chip Market immense earnings growth and a groundbreaking product launch on the horizon Nvidia finds itself amid a swirling Tempest of investor enthusiasm and geopolitical Intrigue join us as we unravel the mystery behind nvidia's skyrocketing Market prowess and the recent Jitters that have some investors on edge welcome back everyone to invest cracy so I want to I want to quote you this was the opening paragraph of your post earnings uh research note nvidia's earnings last night was front and center globally as the Godfather of AI Jensen are the torchbearers of this AI Revolution the Tex St warart delivered massive quote drop the mic numbers yet again that easily beat the street with a Top Line That Grew 122% From A year ago quarter with 30 billion of Revenue and a robust outlook for the October quarter of 32.5 billion 80% growth while some buide whisper expectations were a tad higher for the October quarter We Believe nvidia's surging AI chip demand Blackwell delay concerns laid robust Outlook and a meteoric Enterprise P pipeline speaks to this AI Revolution just starting to kick off its next phase of growth I think a lot of people had that reaction but the stock price didn't what do you think is the main reason for why we saw Nvidia sell off almost uh six or 7% in the immediate aftermath of that report I just think it's like people expect jic to win 60606 if you if it's 63 oh lost three so the point is like you're expecting like okay could they give a 34 billion number just another it was basically what I vied call it you know half a billion higher than sort of Base maybe a little below whisper I think it ends up probably being close to 34 billion number because I think now Nvidia recognizes when you're in this parabolic grad especially with Blackwell there's no reason for them to give a 34 billion even though I think that's open where good nvidia's rapid Ascent in the stock market is not an unfamiliar tale for those who have followed the tech Giants Journey this narrative is woven with Innovation and a strategic pivot from its original video game Centric operations into a broader industrial Focus particularly in AI the company's gpus have rapidly become indispensable tools for training and inferencing AI models morphing Nvidia into an AI Powerhouse in recent quarters the company's Revenue has surpassed its entire annual revenue from just a few years ago with 87% of this income funneling through its burgeoning data center business it's the sort of financial performance that leaves other companies wondering if they should quit their day jobs and learn to code preferably using nvidia's kits adding fuel to this growth is the eagerly awaited launch of the Blackwell architecture the upcoming product has sparked excitement with its promise of several other groundbreaking Innovations it's no wonder then that demand for Blackwell has exceeded expectations promising solid Revenue growth moving forward while Nvidia Hopper architecture continues to sell robustly the anticipation for Blackwell is creating a supply that even the most workaholic of Supply chains struggles to match but wait as investors excitedly chart this promising future the venue starts dimming unexpectedly shares slipped almost 7% and it seems geopolitical factors could be to blame reports have emerged that the Biden Administration is contemplating capping sales of advanced AI chips to specific countries while Nvidia may have formed an impressive moat around its products The Whispers of legislative red tape send Shivers through wary investors add to this the warning from semiconductor maker asml about potential weaker sales in China and you've got a scene straight out of a stock market Thriller yet it's not all doom and gloom and I think when now it's going to start to happen Josh at that point the next month and we'll we'll be in Asia next week anyone that's doing Asia supply chain checks it's actually increasing in terms of demand over supply all of a sudden what starts to happen is next drum roll starts hold on a second 32 and a half probably a sandbag number all of a sudden stock starts to you know what I believe continue to creep back up and I believe we're looking for trillion martop for NVIDIA next six months I I just don't see what's stopping it given all the demand we're seeing from hyperscalers from Enterprise the use cases now are exploding that's why paler people dismiss them look at them look at look at service now look what we're seeing with Oracle that to me is the next phase the use cases and Jensen hit on that a bit I want to talk about demand this is you you said there will come a there will be a time that competition from AMD and others ramp up but essentially A1 trillion of AI capex over the next few years is coming its way and last night's conference call further confirmed this demand Outlook the stage is set for tech stocks to move higher into year end and 2025 in our opinion as the fed and Powell kick off its rate cutting cycle macrosoft Landing Remains The Path and Tech spending on AI remains a generational spending cycle just starting to hit the shores of the tech sector we continue to estimate for every $1 spent on an Nvidia GPU chip there is an8 to $10 multiplier across the tech sector which speaks to our firmly bullish view of tech stocks over the next year so you're very constructive on Tech going into year end and heading into 2025 and that multiplier effect because of the GPU spend means a lot of opportunity for a lot of stocks not just Nvidia that's exact like see that's exactly what we really want and what we talked to investors about is the multiplier because everyone oh it's Nvidia it's Microsoft no this this now kicks off a cycle we basically have never seen before and anytime someone puts like the Cisco comparison to video show the chart it looks I covered Tech back then the div Cisco 90% of their customers were essentially leverage startups athers and all the CX who who's the customers of Nvidia it's companies with 1.2 trillion on the balance sheet government and and government so so my whole point is that I get the comparison looks great in a chart Apple s you cannot compare what we see here it's Essen fourth Industrial Revolution that's being built out and I think now it's the next phase it's the software acquires it's infrastructure it's other parts of semis it's names like AMD it's names like in cyber security how you going to protect the workloads so that to me is really where I see everything that's what why I'm so excited about second third fourth derivative despite these headwinds nvidia's Forward Thinking strategies stand unshaken led by CEO Jensen hang known for his sharp insights and humorous cander rumor has it he suggested that nvidia's chips have so high demand they practically need bodyguards that Nvidia continues to solidify its competitive advantages the genius behind this strategy is the compute unified device architecture A system that allows for the efficient processing of AI tasks it facilitates a flywheel effect which ensures even older generations of its technology remain valuable these factors combin to form a robust defense against Market fluctuations nvidia's stock continues to be viewed favorably by many analysts despite short-term dips whilst the geopolitical climate poses challenges it also represents an opportunity to purchase at a discount an opportunity some investors might compare to finding a designer suit marked at clearance price actually the big thing that's not being priced in the tech cap X from the Star Works priced in what's not being priced in is the incremental spend that I think you're going to see from T the incremental spend we're seen from Enterprise and governments I mean you if I look on typical andise and you think government eight 10% sometimes 12% overall spend that's not numbers yeah so so as this all plays out and any any company any government it all starts with the red phone it's gent there's only one where you getting the chip it's a new go it's a new gold new oil so where does that leave prospective investors one might wonder Nvidia with its extraordinary blend of innovation and Market resilience remains a strong Contender for long-term portfolio development despite recent dips analysts forecast a continued upward trajectory as demand for nvidia's AI Solutions esal escalates and the technology landscape evolves with a streamlined product pipeline like Blackwell and sustained commitment to annual Innovation Nvidia is poised to maintain its elevated status in the market as of now the stock presents compelling value propositions Visa its capabilities and future growth potential investing in Nvidia could be viewed not just as securing a share in its financial success but also betting on the future landscape of Technology at large as we part from this gripping story of Nvidia the recalibration of the stock from its dizzying highs presents a unique predicament should one capitalize on the opportunity or proceed with caution AS Global Market conditions seem poised at the cusp of change we'd love to hear your thoughts do you see Nvidia as a prime candidate for investment or do the recent Market Tremors give you pause drop your insights in the comments below and join the conversation a thrilling stock market dialogue await
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