저자: TomLee · 외국인
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2025년 설정은 우호적: 새 행정부의 친(親)시장 성향, 도비시한 연준, 금리 안정화로 향후 12개월 우려 불필요. 주식 주도 업종은 경기민감주·소형주 선호. 엔비디아는 블랙웰 수요에 힘입어 4조 달러 돌파 및 5조 달러 근접 가능성 언급(IO펀드 주가 70% 상승 전망 인용). 전일 급락은 매수 기회라고 봄. 반대 측 Jeremy(?)는 밸류에이션 조정이 1~2분기 이어질 수 있다며 신중론.
다듬은 글
is there much left to impress investors heading into next year here to take on that question Tom Lee of fundstrat he joins me at post9 also a CNBC contributor Tom good to see you thanks for coming in yeah great to see mik um so we can stack up all the positives I mean I know you've been kind of in gear with that uh idea that the economy would power through inflation would come down the FED could become friendly or earnings are going higher big question to me is how do we set expectations for the year to come given that uh that's all in the books uh um it's a great question because you know we have two backtack 20% years and now investors are wondering how much good news is baked in but if we look at the 2025 environment it's a great setup because we have a new Administration coming in that's maybe Pro Animal Spirits you know a trump put we have a doish fed and as you're pointing out interest rates are kind of calming down after rising think sentiments coming back into check you mentioned that before with the AI number so I think it's a good setup for investors I wouldn't be too worried about the next 12 months so don't be too worried I mean it seems as if they're all these supportive factors and when you mention the 220% uh up years in a row history says actually you know the following year is up more often than not as well what what do you mean do you think specifically by the new Administration being pro-animal Spirits first of all it's true you kind of seen it at work um it seems to pull in that direction but is there are there specifics that the market is fixated on that is going to drive that Dynamic uh yes I think that the market is trying to figure out exactly how this animal spirits plays out in markets but I would say we've got a treasury secretary that Equity markets approve of we we do know that the the last Trump presidency was cared very much about what stock prices do and Jeremy seagull said this is the most stock market focused president ever and I think that the uncertainty is around trade and the potential risk around tariffs but we'll have to see I mean that's something markets are going to have to like deal with it from an uncertainty perspective it's interesting to me that you know the way the market has behaved in the last several weeks but even going into the election was we need to owe more cycal we need to owe more financial stocks we're going to repic this market for a maybe a growth acceleration even or at least uh maintaining above Trend growth meanwhile though we're only a couple months removed from a pretty big growth scare job growth has kind of slowed to a point the housing market seems pretty locked up it's kind of interesting how the sentiment has kind of jumped ahead is the economic numbers position to actually validate that view markets tend to be forward looking so I would expect this I know there has been a recession in durable goods and in housing and Auto Sales principally because of high rates which have made affordability an issue that's really on the come next year I mean I think the spread of tenur and mortgages should come down and the tenure hopefully behaves and I think if if there's more confidence and more Supply I think housing actually could lead this recovery I I think that's why home builders actually started to act better this week as well in a market teaming with giants an unexpected Contender is gearing up to take the lead Nvidia a name synonymous with high-end gpus and artificial intelligence is on the brink of achieving something Monumental while apple and Microsoft are hovering around a 4 trillion do market cap Nvidia seems poised to surpass them all at least that's the buzz stiring among Market analysts the company's latest offering the Blackwell GPU architecture is set to redefine industry standards creating ripples of excitement across the tech sphere but what makes Nvidia the Dark Horse of this race let's delve deeper into guess the question is if we believe it's still a supportive environment and pretty much all the things you can identify uh would suggest you shouldn't be too worried about next year the second question is is something like the S&P 500 the best vehicle to capitalize on that um I think investors are still trying to figure this out we did a survey with our institutional investors and and our raia clients last week the majority of institutional investors don't think Fang is the leading trade they're actually betting on cyclicals but if you look at the raia world uh the majority are betting on Fang so I think the market is still undecided whether to be long the mag 7 or the cyclicals I'm inclined to be more cyclical and bet even on small caps having a a very big year next year as the stock market buzzes with new developments nvidia's story captivates Watchers with a touch of suspense and Intrigue you see in the Grand Theater of the stock market the plot twist can be as unpredictable and wild as a bull in a china shop and Nvidia seems to be that very bull right now a behemoth charging towards an ambitious $4 trillion market cap but how exactly does Nvidia plan on reaching this colossal figure before its Tech Rivals its Larger than Life market cap competitors apple and Microsoft the key lies in a single word Blackwell named after the Revolutionary GPU architecture Blackwell is nvidia's Ace card promising to run trillion parameter large language models at up to 25 times less cost and energy than the previous Hopper architecture it's a Marvel in technological advancement Jensen hang nvidia's CEO described the demand for this chip as insane and Industry insiders have shown no signs of thinking otherwisis uh this is another buying opportunity in our view 2024 has proven to be a year where the Market's been strong and it has eluded many opportunities for sustained weakness I know yesterday's pullback was really painful but to us I think the fundamental supporting stocks are intact and I think it's a good opportunity for investors here a good opportunity for investors Jee I take it that you feel is differently putting it too strong well I don't disagree with Tom on the fundamental side of it but I think if you look at where we're at with the interest rates what's on the horizon from taxes tariffs and deficits I really have to be considered of what happened yesterday it was the second largest move in the vix we have seen and historically speaking Kelly Tom is Right a month after that spike in the vix you see the S&P 500 higher however I don't think we can lean on History here due to the fact that we've seen stretch valuations in the top 10 names of the S&P 500 we've also seen just a straight line up if you look in the last two years back toback years of above 25% we become conditioned that the markets is going to continue to move higher thanks by and large to the FED dobish in their $7 trillion balance sheet so I'm looking I know Tom wants to back up the truck here I have the truck running but I'm not ready to back it up yet I want to see this more process reset valuations I think that's going to be the next couple months possibly the first quarter because we become too condition Kelly to markets repricing in a day I have to go back to my 30-year career and understand that we will see reset valuations more of a quarter or two not just a day or two the Blackwell excitement is timely coinciding with what many view as a slump for both apple and Microsoft Apple's newest generative AI capabilities haven't stirred the desired upgrade frenzy with a survey from cell.com revealing that 73% of iPhone users felt the AI added little value meanwhile despite a potentially strong showing from Microsoft their skepticism over its ility to catapult to market dominance with its upcoming releases this sets the stage for nvidia's Blackwell to shine as per Beth kindig from IO fund nvidia's shares could Skyrocket by 70% in 2025 although that is a bold forecast it plays into larger expectations of Nvidia reaching and potentially exceeding the $4 trillion valuation possibly eyeing $5.6 trillion if nvidia's q1 forecasts and sales align with these expectations we might witness a historic climb inal valuation amidst all this even investors who might typically play it safe are considering a stake in Nvidia simply because missing out on this chip boom feels akin to missing out on the likes of the Windows 95 launch or the debut of the original iPhone with analysts rallying around this Vision Nvidia is no longer just a tech company it's transforming into a Cornerstone of future AI infrastructures a company building tomorrow's technology toda say you saw signs of capitulation yesterday as it was a 90% down day I did Tyler um you know as context the market has been bleeding lower if you look at internals for the last 10 days yesterday looks capitulo because not only did we have a 90% down day but the vix the spot vix exploded by 75% there's only four times in history where it's risen 60% in a day so yesterday was the fifth time in its 35y year history of those four times the market recovered all of its losses within a week three out of the four times the fifth time it took the fourth time sorry it took a month so I think what you had was people panicking to get out of what they thought was a a momentum trade that's ending because we're so close to your end but here's the interesting thing the Ford vix Futures curve barely moved so it was almost as if people were seeking protection through the vix yesterday as we wrap up this fascinating narrative it's clear that Nvidia is at the cusp of something potentially historic with apple and Microsoft temporarily stalled the path might be clearer for NVIDIA to rush ahead the current standing of their stock though not indicative of guaranteed future performance reflects an underlying expectation of monumental growth spearheaded by the Blackwell architecture if Nvidia capitalizes on this momentum its valuation is not just set to reach $4 trillion it's poised to potentially break further records and extend beyond inching towards $5 trillion a stock market Journey such as this doesn't just change portfolios it reshapes technology Landscapes fulfilling both investor and consumer anticipation alike but what do you think can Nvidia sustain this pace and reach these staggering Heights the stock market might be unpredictable but it's this very unpredictability that keeps us engaged and invested in the stories it unfolds we'd love to hear your insights and prediction
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