저자: MattPocius · 외국인
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테슬라 주가는 2026년 기준 ARK 기본 시나리오 주당 4,600달러, 비관 2,900달러, 낙관 5,800달러로 제시됨 자율주행 로보택시가 기대가치의 약 60%를 차지하며, FSD가 실패해도 1,840달러 수준으로 보고 있음 발표자 본인은 테슬라를 유일한 보유 종목으로 두고 주가 하락 시 추가 매수 의향을 밝힘 전기차 가격 패리티: 배터리 원가가 누적 생산 두 배마다 약 28% 하락하는 라이트 법칙을 근거로 2023년경 전기차가 내연차와 차량 가격이 같아질 것으로 주장 전기차 수요가 급증할 것이라는 전망이며, 실내 난방 등 전기차 장점도 언급 로보택시 가격: 자율주행 택시 마일당 25센트 가능, 개인차 대비 절반 이하 비용으로 수요 확대 전망 플랫폼 기업의 기업가치가 2026년까지 11~12조 달러에 이를 것으로 추정, 총 시장 규모 약 11조 달러 생산 효율: 테슬라 신규 생산능력당 자본효율이 2021년 7,700달러로 업계 평균 14,000달러보다 낮음, ARK 낙관 시나리오는 2,000달러 기존 완성차 업체는 전기차 전환 과정에서 큰 타격을 받을 것이라는 전망 발표자 견해: 장기 투자자 관점에서 테슬라를 매수하고 있으며, 2030년 ARK 기본 시나리오는 주당 2만 달러 이상으로 제시됨, 단 확실한 예측이 아닌 추측이라고 언급 주의: 발표는 2022년 5월 기준이며 ARK 시나리오는 장기 모델임
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analysts from arkham has just did a podcast discussing very tesla evaluation so let's find out why we are so bullish and why we think that's available worth over four thousand dollars per share based on very base case in just a few short years but for batteries it's so important because the battery is the single largest cost component of the vehicle and so wright's law states that for every cumulative doubling of production you get a fixed percent cost decline and for lithium ion batteries that's roughly 28 and so we think that by 2023 a electric vehicle is going to reach sticker price parity so that's the upfront cost the consumer sees with a like for like gas powered car and at that point it should really be a no-brainer and we think that we're going to see a huge shift in demand towards electric vehicles so not only are electric cars obviously better but instant acceleration also if you live in a colder climate you get instant heat which is tremendous probably that's really useful here in canada but actually the price the upfront cost will be the same that of a gasoline car now if you think it is difficult to get an electric car now the vad thing times being absolutely ridiculous already wait till that year it's going to be insanity which is also good for tesla obviously because tesla is positioned to gain from that vehicles in the future all passenger cars will be electric so when we talk about autonomous cars they're electric autonomous cars i think it's pretty obvious at this point but i'm still surprised that many people can't believe in that it it's just a little bit absurd at this time to think that electric cars is not the future ultimately why we're so interested in autonomous driving is because we think that it could dramatically lower the cost to get around so an autonomous taxi could price as low as 25 cents per mile that's less than half of the cost of driving a personal car in the us a new personal car that's really dramatic it's going to bring a bunch of people into the ride hill market that are not customers today because of that extremely low cost point of course cars will be a lot safer too but ultimately we think cost is going to drive demand and we think that this is such a large opportunity um on a revenue basis the total addressable market is about 11 trillion dollars and and that's really our updated work on autonomy so it could be as cheap as 25 cents per mile for a ride but we also see a lot of demand at the you know 50 cents to a dollar range um for uh existing uh customers today that are either you know traveling around for their own personal needs or for work related travel we've done some analysis on how customers value their time to dimension those price points ultimately we think that uh the the platform providers or the companies that own the technology stock that allow cars to be autonomous could enjo enjoy an enterprise value of 11 to 12 trillion dollars by 2026 so this is really a massive opportunity and one that tesla is uniquely uh well set up to to participate in as it's both a vehicle manufacturer and potentially an autonomous platform provider that is a big opportunity that's why i personally believe doesn't stockpile 10x once fsd is solved maybe not in one day but give it a little bit of time and i'm sure it will be coming that's why tesla stock is the only stock i own and leave a comment below if you can get a ride for 25 cents per mile would you still own a car or would you just get a robot taxi to get you to work and to over places now i personally i think the area where i live there's not that much traffic and where parking is relatively easy but when i go downtown it's a little bit absurd so i think for if i'm going downtown maybe i'm even taking the robo taxi sometimes if it's very fast the main issue right now is if i call uber just takes 10 minutes for uber to come if i'm lucky maybe six minutes so it's just a little bit harder to plan around and one thing i'm a little bit introverted not always but some of the time and then i'm going somewhere usually i don't want to talk i wish when you went to an uber if there was a button but i could press i don't want to chat that's one thing that if i'm often times i'm thinking and i don't want to be interrupted and if i take a ride that's an opportunity for me to think so just knowing that there's no person in the car that actually makes me much more likely to use a robo taxi compared to uber at least that's for me leave a comment below if you have that same feeling about yourself as well and the opportunity for the robot taxis is insane now i think i think she is a little bit maybe just me but she seemed a little bit nervous when she was talking about and maybe not just because the opportunity is so huge that it just sounds absurd maybe that's why but i i really believe tesla is the best investment that one can possibly make right now if you are investing long term short term i don't know what's going to happen but anyway let's continue by the way that is one very handsome board ape but i cannot help but notice right here i wonder who drew it was it her or someone else ibrave good job i like it our expected value uh for tesla stock price in 2026 is four thousand six hundred dollars per share we got there by uh we have a monte carlo uh simulation that we've run a million times and the expected value is the average of of all of those simulations and then how does arc get to its upside and downside cases our bear case for tesla is uh two thousand nine hundred dollars per share in 2026 and that is the 25th percentile of that million simulation run of mrt carlo analysis so in other words we think that uh 25 of the time tesla could be worth 2 900 per share or less and then our bull price per share is 5 800 by 2026.
so um that is the 75th percentile or in other words we think that there's a 25 probability that tesla could be worth 5 800 per share or more by 2026. now these numbers are pretty high in numbers 2026 4 600 base case bear case is close to 3 000. even based on the bear case if you buy stock today you are tripling your money you're almost quadrupling your money in four years now that is insane will that happen i personally don't know the way i invest in tesla is i'm thinking who's going to solve full cell driving first tesla has the most data tesla has the best engineer best single engineer and tesla probably has the best ai team in the world as well and they have the most data they have a most cars on the road that have a hardware probably capable of full self driving i'm betting on tesla philadelphia will will they solve it as soon as what ark is saying i don't know about that but will they be the first ones i'm i'm quite convinced of that that's why i'm investing in tesla you know we're saying what is the capital efficiency or how much money needs to be spent for an incremental unit of capacity to be built in the auto industry as it stands and that number was fourteen thousand dollars and so that's kind of what we had used and said okay this is the baseline if tesla matches industry average and so if you go and you look in the model and our blog you can see that when tesla first started ramping the model 3 their capital efficiency was far far worse they were at roughly 84 000 per incremental unit of capacity but they dramatically improved and in 2021 they were down to 7 700 per incremental unit of capacity which is pretty remarkable right already half of what the industry average was and so in the monte carlo we say that in the downside case they just marginally improve and and stay at roughly seven thousand dollars per unit incremental unit capacity but in our upside case we have that cost coming down to two thousand dollars industry average is fourteen thousand dollars and tesla says seven thousand dollars now that is a big difference and arc is modeling if everything comes out well that it will be down to two thousand dollars while the industry standard is fourteen thousand dollars think about how hard it will be for our automakers to compete then that average is based on technology that has been around things that other automakers can already do with gasoline cars and now they have to transition to electric vehicles we're going to see a lot of blood we're going to get crushed and in the meantime when you take tesla one big philosophy that elon musk has is that the factories the manufacturing process is more of a product than the actual car the manufacturing is more important than the actual car how you manufacture the car is much more important than the end product of a manufacturing process and i was involved in manufacturing before and it's very difficult it's a non-stop headache something always breaks down you always have unexpected things happening people get sick we can't come to work we don't want to come to war because it's manufacturing it's just a headache so early in my life i decided i i am never going into manufacturing and anyone who goes into it i have deep respect for that it's incredibly difficult requires a lot of thinking very careful planning and elon musk is demonstrating he's able to pull it off much better than any other car companies and by the way one of the reasons why elon musk is able to achieve such efficiencies is because a lot of the things tesla makes in-house for example most auto manufacturers they are really what do they do they are really experts at supply chains they know where you can order everything from and then they buy everything and then we just put those parts together and they usually make the engine not always but usually they make the engine and that's about it they don't do their own service they don't do their own sales it's not that much that they do compare to tesla versus tesla they even make their own seats and these are pretty good seats by the way room for improvement still sometimes i get a sweaty bottom when i sit on them that's about the only complaint about i have about them over but maybe the headdress could be a little bit more soft but that's a whole other discussion about the suspension of model 3 that i have i made another video i don't like the suspension but i think that's it's too it's too stiff is what i'm saying but it's a very it's a very good car if you want to go faster but for comfort wise i think i hope i can address that part as a as a owner of a tesla vehicle let's continue mute approximately 60 of the expected value in the model um can be attributed to robo-taxis um and the we've changed a little bit the way that we've we've modeled this so what i'm hearing here is that even if tesla does not solve full self driving which we don't know for sure if tesla will solve it i hope they will within that time frame but even if they do not arc thinks arkhanvest believes that tesla stock would basically be worth 1840.
per share excluding robot taxis by 2026. that's a doubling from vervr to div it's a pretty good return in four years even if nothing happens to fsd basically now that gets me excited about tesla because the way i invest in tesla is i just assume even the worst case scenario fsd does not happen it will still be a good investment in my opinion it will probably still beat s p 500 by quite a bit so i'm very happy with tesla and that's why i only own tesla stock when it comes to publicly traded stocks so uh this what's the end effect well we think that there's more opportunity or more revenue opportunity in autonomous driving than we previously thought there was and the result of that if we look at projections more for into the future beyond 2026 from ark you can see that by 2030 where they believe i i base case is over 20 000 per share and keep in mind historically harkinvest has been not bullish enough so this projection is a little unbelievable and yet given tesla's history this is possible so fsd is really the main driver of this and that's why i am investing in tesla stock now i don't know if it will go up all the way up to twenty thousand dollars per share by twenty thirty that is a huge increase that's more than twenty x from a current price and typically investors are super happy with just 10x in 10 years that's unbelievably amazing this is a hell of a lot more than that and of course this is just just a model it's not a guarantee nothing close to that it's just speculation but arkhanvest historically has been too conservative so this makes me excited and that's why tesla is the only stock that i own out of all the stocks you can buy publicly on any stock exchange so i'll be buying i'll be loading up with a few more tesla shares very soon here and the more the price dips the happier i get because i'm a long-term investor if you're a short-term investor you might lose a lot of money owning a tesla stock that's it for this video subscribe for videos like this tesla news fsd especially and i will see you in the next one my name is matt posius if you don't know who i am i am a serial entrepreneur and oh now an investor and a millionaire so see you in the next video bye
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