저자: JimRogers&AjayKedia · 외국인
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트럼프 취임 후 관세·무역전쟁 우려, 미국 석유 증산으로 유가 하방 압력 vs 러시아 제재·지정학으로 지지. 구리·아연·알루미늄 등 베이스메탈은 상반기 긍정적, 하반기 재검토. 철광석은 중국 부양책 기대로 상반기 반등 전망. 금보다 은 선호(금은비 높음), 국내 은 13만원 목표. 코코아·커피는 2025년 상반기 강세 지속 후 하반기 조정 전망. 인도 주식은 매도했다고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
those were all the top headlines that you're tracking from the world of Commodities you're watching commodi Central on ET now I'm mashesha adaru and with just a few hours to go for Donald Trump's inauguration ceremony in Washington DC later today the buz is already building around his bold plans report suggests is gearing up to sign nearly 100 executive orders within hours of taking office but the big question of course is what impact will Trump's presidency have on the global commodity Market to help us unpack this we are now joined by Jim Rogers author of streets SMS and Mr aay kadia MD and research head at kadia Securities Mr kadia and Jim thank you so much for taking your time out and speaking with us here on ET now and Mr kadia coming to you first we've seen the kind of impact on gold prices on on oil prices on account of sanctions that were imposed on Russia help us understand what kind of implications do you foresee of trump coming into power and what kind of impact will it have on global commodity Market uh very good afternoon Asha uh see 2024 was a very quiet year for crude oil prices we have seen Market was just trading in a very closed with a uh negligible positive side but I think 2025 is going to be a very important year uh looking to the Donald Trump because one side we have seen all central banks are cutting down their interest so that economy can be on their footb so that demand could be slightly positive but no doubt IA eia and other forecasters says the demand would be slowly and steadily steady but the production from us is going to be on higher side so at least we can say in 2025 the supply side would be quite adequate that can create pressure on crude oil prices but in last 1520 days we have seen as 2025 has started we have again seen the aggression from us creating more sanction on Russia that has triggered the fresh buying and we have seen almost $10 rally so I think in 2025 we may see higher Supply in crude oil prices which will create cap but geopolitical tension will keep prices on toes so overall we can see a broader range of for WTI could be between 9092 on higher side but uh Lower Side maybe we can see 6465 as a immediate support all right so that's as far as oil prices are concerned and Jim coming to you then what do you expect from Donald Trump will Donald Trump's follow up on his pledges about tariffs about tariff cuts and immigration what is your sense and what are you making of the latest developments well I'm Afra afraid Mr Trump will probably launch trade Wars Mr Trump thinks that everybody should listen to him and I am afraid that means we will have more trade Wars more trade Strife but Jim if you can be more specific what kind of announcements do you expect which will have an impact on global asset class classes I'm afraid that he will put tariffs on foreign countries maybe even some of our friends like Canada and Europe because Mr Trump thinks that everybody should do what he says those are some of the kind of announcements that we are expecting but Mr kadia coming back to you uh China has announced a SLE of stimulus measures for 2025 and now with us imposing sanctions if at all it were to come through what impact will it have on the Chinese economy and indirectly on the demand for base metals that comes in from China yeah I think uh with in the morning I have just going with the news that c jinin has been invited for uh us also so I think the impact already in last couple of month we have already seen but I think with the China has already insulated with their uh currency devaluation or we can say stimulus going on in the market I think everything has been discounted but huh one more thing is basee metal like Ste base metal counter like aluminium has already seen concerns in regard with the European and Russian that could create support but coming particularly on China The increased tariff are expected to raise the cost for commodity like steel or aluminium and other base metal so I think initially the demand from China is going to be positive but have to see how us export to China in regards with the other Commodities will impact so overall I think base metal one side demand would continue to support and sanctions on Russia and other geopolitical will continue to support the prices but upside would be really kep among all the base metal I would prefer to go with the aluminium where we can see on LM maybe prices can go towards the level of 28 2850 as of now the first half is going to be positive for Metals but second half have to recheck how the demand and how the relation comes back again first half is going to be positive for Metals but we'll have to wait and V of how second half pans up but Mr K also wanted your thoughts on feris side especially when it comes to iron or and steel iron or prices plummeted nearly 10% in 2024 on account of weak demand from Chinese real estate sector how do you expect this to shape up going forward uh definitely if uh we talk about the performance of iron definitely it was slightly undertone because of the chin because in last couple of we have much of the time we were depending upon the ch ch's demand but I think in 2025 already potentially uh stimulus measure from Beijing or we can say Chinese minister of com Commerce has announced the plan for Boost the consumption but have to see how it could be implemented in the economy that is why I am more hopeful for first half that whatever the policy that has been taken considered will have a impact on iron or prices maybe slowly and steadily we would be heading towards the level what we have seen in the month of May that is around 120 122 should be the higher level but as of now upside would be really kept unless until demand Remer from China side all right so that's as far as the impact on Chinese Ferris real estate sector and its impact on Ferris Metals will be uh but Jim coming back to you help us understand the kind of policy changes which Trump had implemented last time and how is it expected to be different this time around well it'll be different this time around Mr Trump cannot be reelected so whatever he does it's going to be pretty strong because he knows he will not have he will never run for office again in America so whatever he does he thinks it will be the final answer and also wanted your thoughts on crude oil we just spoke about crude oil with Mr kadia but what are your thoughts on one side we have seen signs of easing Middle East tensions but on the other side also we have seen some us sanctions on Russia which is kept uh you know which has kept oil on the boil it is currently trading at about $80 per barrel where do you see it headed going forward well Mr Trump will do what he can to drill for more oil in the US that will bring prices down a little bit in the United States because there will be more produ more oil produced in the US and you track since you track Commodities in Greater detail also wanted your thoughts on precious metals we've seen a solid run in 2024 gold up 22% silver up 24% what kind of moves do you foresee in 2025 and do you expect continued buying from central banks globally to continue in 2025 I will continue to buy gold if it goes down right now I will buy silver because silver is cheaper silver is down a lot gold is making alltime high so I prefer silver to gold right now so you're more bullish on Silver as compared to gold and Mr Kia coming to you you did talk about aluminium prices and that your outlook continues to remain very positive but apart from aluminium any other industrial metal that you're positive on I think uh we we should uh write uh like uh Roger correctly told that silver is more bullish because it's have some property of based metal because here in uh if you talk about the base metal I would be slightly positive for uh copper and jinc also these three commodity aluminium copper and jinc these three Commodities seems to be trading with a positive Bice maybe another 14 15% gain should be there but definitely I would also vote for silver because gold silver ratio currently trading around 8990 and uh which is a historically high level and with the consumption uh from the solar EVs and photo voltic demand I think silver look very attractive maybe this can surprise if we talk about gold silver ratio comes down to the level of 72 also then we can see a rally around 28 to 30% in silver rather than gold so I would also support silver from current level also in international we may see level like $40 mark But on domestic Market this time we can easily achieve 130,000 level Mark 130,000 is your target for silver and 28 to 30% upside is what you foresee uh but Jim same question to you within industry Metals in particular can you name some Commodities which could Rally from here on in the current calendar year well I mean nearly all Commodities are down oil is down a lot from its all-time high I think oil is certainly a good place to invest but nearly everything sugar everything is depressed and so they are probably good Investments as the world gets better we're going to have more inflation and when you have more infl that is good for Commodities and coming back to Donald Trump taking over how will India's relationship with us change especially if us imposes he heavy tariffs on India well I hope that America always gets better with India uh we can trade more with India India is changing a lot for the better I like what I see happening in India so I hope that America and India will get closer together and will'll trade more together and as far as Indian equities are concerned are you invested fully or any percentage allocation of your portfolios into India and within Indian equities which sectors or themes are you very bullish on well I sold India too soon I am waiting to see what goes down the most and if something goes down I hope I'm smart enough to buy more shares in India but I do not know what yet it depends on what goes down the most right so that's the view as far as Indian equities are concerned but Mr Kia coming back to you and since you are with us also help us understand and give your thoughts on soft Commodities there are several soft Commodities we with saw a solid run up in 2024 cocoa prices for instance ran up 190% we had coffee prices which were up nearly 75% since the beginning of 2024 where do you see cof soft commodity Market headed in 2025 they were totally surprised at CoCo prices has very well because almost we have seen there are many uh reasons like decline in Arab production by almost 5% in domestic Market but important was the weather condition because in international we have already seen the Brazil production has been has reached almost 66.4 so I think the weather concern was the major trigger because of that wefc in Coco prices has red very well in fact uh still we expect the first couple of month or first quarter prices would remain on a positive side but as we move in second half the supply should be again reinstated because of that we may see again prices coming back down but as per icco reported the global cocoa deficit has reached around 374,000 ton in 2024 because of Aging of trees and disease that is why this rally of almost 190% has been seen But second half is going to be a cool off uh for Coco prices where we can see prices coming back in the normal range of let's say uh uh 899 uh 9,000 level but in case of coffee also the rally has been uh markable around 70% plus we have seen a rally the again the supply side concern Vol been there and consumption slowly and steadily Rising so I think support would be there but we won't see whatever the rally in 2024 we have seen in soft commodity sideway positive momentum would continue to be there in soft Commodities momentum is expected to continuance of Commodities that's the word coming in Mr Kia and Jim thank you so much for taking your time out and helping us understand what the implications could be on the global commodity Market but moving on big relief for the sugar sector the government has now permitted export of about 1 million tons of sugar this is a significant shift as exports were completely banned in the sugar season 2324 and previously kepted about 6 million tons in the year earlier however incred believes that this export allowance is unlik likely to have a major impact on the financials of the sugar sector given low prices small Quantum of exports and the absence of subsidies for transportation and exports Additionally the potential hike in sap in utar Pradesh is adding to the existing challenges faced by the sugar industry that's the latest Development coming in from the sugar sector but shifting Focus to our next segment did you know and today we put the spotlight on oil did you know that the largest conventional oil field is south Saud Arabia's kavat oil field this oil field contains about 50 billion barrels of oil and is able to produce 3.8 million barrels per day Venezuela has the largest amount of oil reserves about 300 billion barrels accounting for nearly 18% of the world's total reserves followed by Saudi Arabia Canada Iran and Iraq that's all the time we have on this edition of commodity Central slipping into a break but we'll be back in a minute stay t
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