US Futures Slip Ahead Of Key Jobs Data | Dollar Index Climbs For Third Session | Ed Yardeni

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트럼프 2.0 출범으로 규제완화·이민·세제 등 정책 불확실성이 크지만 경제엔 대체로 긍정적. 10년물 금리는 9월 이후 100bp 상승한 반면 연준은 100bp 인하해 채권시장이 연준과 괴리. 4.5% 안팎이 적정 수준이며 연준은 추가 인하 속도를 늦출 전망. 글로벌 불확실성으로 달러 강세, 신흥국 상대 부진, 미국 증시 강세 지속 전망.

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01. talk about what the global setup is looking like we've got Ed yini joining in on the show right now Ed hi good morning good to have you on the show and evening to you just wanted to understand what is it that you're making of the globe getting closer now to Trump's official transition what are we uh hoping to hear well I think what we're uh likely to see from the inauguration of the new Administration uh everybody calls it Trump 2.0 uh we're going to certainly get lot of executive orders right away focusing on deregulation on immigration uh possibly uh anticipating some changes in the tax laws and uh of of course all that is going to have some impact on the deficit so it's uh it's going to be a lot of a lot of policy initiatives we're going to have to wait a while to see what gets through and once it gets through uh we'll all be trying to assess the economic impact I think on balance it'll be okay for the the economy but for right now it creates a lot of uncertainty certainty is something which is really U you know Street doesn't like and it is that something what we are seeing in the 10e eels right now closer to 4.7 thereabouts where do you think they are headed well there's a few things going on in the financial markets particularly the bond market as you're asking we have seen the bond yield go up 100 basis points since the middle of September at the same time we see the Federal Reserve lower the federal funds rate by 100 basis points so the bond yields up 100 and the FED funds rate is down 100 so the Bond vigilantes as I like to call them um are disag with the fed and basically arguing that the FED might be stimulating an economy that doesn't need stimulating and you know what it looks like they're right because fed officials are starting to indicate that they may be be going on pause here they may not be raising and not be lowering interest rates anytime soon they won't be raising them anytime soon uh either but it looks like rates are going to go flat uh but look I I think a 4 and a half% bond yield plus minus 25 basis points is is the right level it's it's it's the kind of a normalizing normalizing of where rates should be and that's exactly what I wanted to talk about you know the rate cut trajectory Ed because many believe whether or not at this juncture rate cut or rather the pace of rate cuts are even warranted well exactly and uh I I think I I did not believe back in August of last year that the economy needed rate Cuts I thought the economy demonstrated over the past three years how resilient it was in the face of tightening of monetary policy but the FED went ahead they didn't listen to me and they uh went ahead with a 100 basis point cut but now I think they're coming around to the idea that the econom is doing fine inflation is not uh not quite at 2% uh and meanwhile they're uh they're starting to worry about the uh potential inflationary impact of the incoming Administration with regards to tariffs uh and uh of course with regards to deportation what do you think is the problem area with India right now I mean is it just the dollar Index strength which is taking the you know making the FIS pull out the money or do you see some structural issue as well with the Indian markets I think there's a lot of uncertainty related of course to uh Trump uh but there's also a lot of uncertainty uh on a global basis uh we see political instability in France and Germany and South Korea uh there there's a lot of jitteriness around and that's actually favored the dollar commodity prices have remained weak China's economy remains very very weak I think there's sort of a flight to Quality and the where people are flying to is to the United States which is why the dollar has been strong and why our stock market has been also uh quite strong so I think as long as the dollar is strengthening like this it means that Emerging Markets generally are going to underperform especially underperform the US and India is still viewed as an emerging economy but I think of all the emerging economies its prospects are probably the best so I don't really I I don't really think that the uh jit Arenas in the global financial markets is going to be as problematic in India as it might be in some other plac places okay and on that note we let you go thanks so much for making time and speaking with us today so that's the view coming in it does look like rates are at the right level as far as Senor is concerned the pace of fed cutting down rates might be slower and of course us might just continue to outperform with the kind of dollar strength that we are seeing