저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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미국 대선 전후 비트코인 수급 분석. 현물 ETF 유입은 둔화됐으나 안정화되는 중이며 기관 수요가 점진적으로 늘고 있다고 봄. 대선 결과가 규제 완화 기대와 M&A·유동성 이벤트 재개에 영향을 줄 것으로 언급. 4년 주기 패턴과 대선 후 랠리 사례를 소개하며 Bernstein의 8~9만 달러 목표를 전달. 출연자 본인은 장기적 규제 완화 기대를 밝혔으며 구체적 가격 목표는 직접 제시하지 않음.
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I'll start off on that the the surprise is that the searches are have been falling as uh the Trump campaign has been focusing more on bitcoin and I think even in the last few days may maybe it was over the weekend he talked about making Bitcoin uh transactions uh tax-free and so it was like what uh so I've been very surprised but you know what just as a student of the markets when the markets are pushing up like this and there's really no hype there's some real demand uh developing somewhere now maybe it is continued institutional demand as more and more uh as more and more people make a decision about this new asset class maybe it's that and and and that's happening slowly but surely uh and maybe we do need clarification from the election to get retail investors more excited again I I don't know I would think that institutional investors would be somewhat cautious around an election but something's going on behind the scenes the searches are not there and so it leads me to believe this is somewhat institutional in nature Bitcoin zep Dad since Inception Cathy wood founder CEO and CIO of AR invest has researched and published thoughts on the cryptocurrency ecosystem within Big Ideas and through articles white papers monthly Bitcoin reports and podcasts now Kathy discusses everything happening in the rapidly changing and still Nas and Bitcoin ecosystem I think there was a lot of an antici anticipatory buying before the ETF launches and then before the having uh and so we've had the digestion of that uh because it has done if you do year-to dat analysis it's been a fabulous performing asset and a lot of people in certainly our world are year-to dat people that's how they're that's how they think and it's been it's been very good but what we're seeing now in terms of the the spot Bitcoin ETFs is the flows have slowed down but now they're becoming steady they they are they're becoming steady and uh uh and that again back to the first statement maybe we'll have institutions I don't know what breaks uh us into new high territory uh but maybe it is the election maybe that's why a lot of people are sitting on their hands and uh are waiting to see if you know who's who's going to win they both seem much more crypto friendly Bitcoin friendly um but clearly the the Trump campaign Bitcoin is struggling for direction a day before the United States presidential election with polls dep picking a tied race between former president Donald Trump and vice president Kamala Harris here's what analysts are predicting for Bitcoin as the standoff between Trump and Harris approach the Bitcoin price will likely reach $80,000 90,000 next if Trump wins the election according to Bernstein analysts Trump's support for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies is the main reason behind the bullish Outlook in his electoral rallies he has publicly advocated for the US to become a leader in the cryptocurrency industry key proposals include appointing a crypto-friendly sec chair to ease regulatory pressures establishing a national Bitcoin Reserve to support BTC adoption and making the US a hub for Bitcoin mining Bernstein's bullish prediction for Bitcoin aligns with a fractal analysis showcasing BTC reaching new all-time highs following us presidential elections particularly when align with its having events that occur approximately every four years for instance in 2012 after the first having a November Bitcoin rallied from around $12 to its then all-time height of approximately $1,150 by late 2013 a surge of nearly 9,500 similarly in 2016 the second having was followed by another strong rally Bitcoin Rose from around $650 in mid 2016 to around $20,000 in December 2017 marking an increase of over 3,000% from the preing period the third cycle followed the same pattern after the May 2020 hoing Bitcoin Rose from around $99,000 and reached a new high of $69,000 in November 2021 with a fourth having recently completed in April 2024 and the US election set for November 5 historical Trends suggest potential for another upward movement in bitcoin's price probably toward Bernstein's $80,000 90,000 Target in October they had predicted a BTC price rally toward $200,000 in 2025 regardless of the US election outcome consider the source but I think the ramifications are going to be unbelievable for Innovation regulations are strangling uh businesses uh Financial regulation even more so I mean all of the companies in our business have had to add one compliance person after another after another because of waves and waves of regulation post Tekken Telecom bust and then even more so after 0809 and I know if Trump were to win in his first Administration he basically said if you want to put in a new regulation then you need to take back to two regulations uh I think the combination of something like that or actually just unwinding as many uh as possible by executive order I don't know how many are possible that way uh getting done getting gendler out of the way he will be gone and I think he'll be gone in either Administration uh but especially uh a trump Administration and uh on the FTC side which is Federal Trade Commission which is uh uh has taken a heavy hand in terms of preventing m& and preventing liquidity events for Venture Capital firms uh Grant is noding yes in violent dis in violent agree agreement yes uh but we're seeing that broadly in in our portfolio by now you know there there should there should be a a lot of e m&a activity picking up because prices have been so subdued uh but they're not being allowed uh they're they're an they're antitrust uh zealots and yet and yet we have the Magnificent six growing ever bigger so there you know there's a huge disconnect out there and I think uh if we get a Harris administration at one point she was saying she would let Lena Khan go as well Trump definitely will that's the FDC uh but there's a little bit of a backlash I'm not sure as much about that so it's very clear it's going to take off it's really been held back terribly by lack of liquidity events caused by the FTC and uh you know just uncertainty generally uh around government regulation uh so we shall see Market analyst miles deutser suggests that Bitcoin will likely reach $100,000 or higher regardless of who wins the US presidential election but the path and timing would differ based on the outcome he argues that Harris winning the US election will cause an instant dump in the Bitcoin Market that will likely happen due to Market fears that Harris administ ation could maintain or even strengthen regulatory scrutiny on crypto the Outlook aligns with growing poly Market bids on a bitcoin price crash in November for instance the strongest bets are for a drop to $65,000 with a 75% implied probability for Bitcoin to reach the level as indicated by the 76 C SL price for guest shares November has historically been the most profitable month for Bitcoin since 2013 delivering a 46% average return that has prompted analysts lar Davis to anticipate similar upside runs in 2024 if we see a 46% pump from current prices it would take BTC to $14,000 he noted in his recent exp poost the upcoming US Federal Reserve meeting on November 7 where there's speculation of a 25 basis point rate cut may also boost bitcoin's upside potential even if it means a rally toward Bernstein's $80,000 90,000 Target the convergence of bitcoin's historically strong November performance a possible Fed rate cut and the pro crypto narrative surrounding Trump's candidacy are aligning to create an optimistic outlook for BTC this month
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