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you know hbm in their design decisions or these specific optical cables or a whole bunch of other things you're going to be in a really difficult spot because nvis bought them all you went to another country where'd you go this week I was in Paris France what were you doing there there's an important a conference and Jonathan Ross the founder of Gru and I kicked it off with a fireside chat for about 45 minutes at the beginning just to get everybody amped up and excited cool how did it go yeah it was really good one thing that stood out to me was a sound bite from Jonathan I think he did a very good job explaining where Nvidia is really strong particularly in learning and where Nvidia is trying to build their business which is an inference but the problem is the features almost compete with each other between learning and inference and I thought that was a great clarification the second thing he mentioned was that if he de voice his road map he'll have 50% of the available inference compute by the end of next year wow based on all the needs of open eye Ma and everyone else that's impressive and it has a smaller physical footprint right exactly and it's because they can do higher tokens per second with less power across all the major models making it meaningfully cheaper as well that was a pretty amazing sound bite his whole explanation was great so I'm trying to get a cop copy of the talk it was recorded and I hope we can post it anyone interested in studying Nvidia should listen to what he has to say because the nuances between us and them are really profound it was Stark the way he described them which was cool and it was great to be in Paris frankly how does NV respond to this movement or the notion of an entirely different chip category focused purely on inference do they have inference focused chips in development or a separate roadmap they'll need to prioritize now I think it's really hard for them it's a structural innovators dilemma why is that because they've made architectural decisions around things like hbm which is high bandwidth memory or specific kinds of high throughput optical cables they got up the global Supply and cornered those markets as a structural part of their design it's very strategic and legal but if you design around that and go through an entirely orthogonal process we're not subject to any of those supply chain constraints and I think he explained that well I didn't fully understand it before but I did after this is important for the hundreds of Chip startups and the Venture investors pouring money into these companies who need to know these differences if you're investing in a company that depends on hbm for design decisions or specific optical cables or other constrained resources you're going to be in a tough spot because Nvidia has bought them all that was really interesting to me another thing Nvidia does brilliantly is what Intel did in the 80s and 90s when they wanted to choke CPU competition they defined a metric everyone started to care about like clock speed if you remember Intel pushed Mo's law transistor density and clock speed as metrics of value for many consumers we didn't know better so we go through the Pentium upgrade cycle thinking it was necessary but clock speed doesn't impact speed in the the way users experience it with software it's similar in I and we talked about that too NV is an incredibly important company they're performing brilliantly running the same plays Intel did to create dominance but there are important nuances around power supply chain decisions and Technology decisions that some might view as unsustainable I'd be in that camp the more I understand it it was an important conversation and hopefully we can post it why did we start off with Amazon what did you think of what you saw there I thought it was interesting Cloud actually missed estimates but we're seeing the stock move higher yeah Amazon had a few blemishes and after yesterday you might think everything would get punished but not Amazon apparently I think the profitability was the big surprise of the quarter with a lot of it on the bottom line that gives investors Comfort the sales numbers were close so it's no surprise the stock is up it hasn't been a top performer in The Magnificent Seven of tech stocks so there's some room for it to grow we've seen increased kex by 81% and at the same time we saw margin expansion that's tough to pull off it really is and the capex number is important now that we're past The Big capex Spenders you see all Cloud Spenders focusing on capex and spending large sums jass's comments on I generative I and their focus on it mean that story will continue which is good news for nvib which will be the last of the Magnificent 7even to report let's discuss Apple quickly those Shares are down just over 1% right now mostly due to guidance concerns there were other positive points in the report according to deep water's Gene monster the guidance suggested 4 to 6% Revenue growth but the street expected nearly 7% that explains the Stock's 1% drop even with good news on iPhone sales and a % increase Apple has had a strong run this year due to iPhone 16 and I both were somewhat underwhelming in functionality though iPhone sales were decent that was better than feared from my perspective and since the stock hasn't performed well recently a 1% decline is relatively mild considering there's still more to come with the iPhone 16 true but given its weight in the market it's significant let's talk about Apple's forward p/ at 31 times is this dip a sign that investors are paying more attention to forward P/E valuations does this hint at what we might see for the rest of earning season that's what we saw yesterday it's typical when the market nears all-time highs and P/E multiples hit the mid 20s you're priced for Perfection when results Miss expectations even slightly the market reacts as we saw yesterday none of the news was terrible across the board just a bit less than expected in a market based on strong growth and earnings that can prompt repositioning this version addresses grammatical issues while keeping the length and essence of the script the same let me know if there's anything specific you'd like further adjusted appears enough real enough smoke is present to indicate that there is a fire others in the supply chain have confirmed it to us and super micro made reference to it so it appears to be genuine it appears to be a minor design flaw rather than a serious one in actuality this implies that those who were expecting actual volume shipments in calendar key4 May instead see them in q1 it's a minor pushout keep in mind that even Vidia is not immune to this kind of difficulty hyperscale kex recommendations that are still increasing have taken this problem into account in the interim Hopper nvidia's current design is in high demand and it appears that the company is stepping up production to tide things over until Blackwell perhaps a quarter later emerges in volume I do not believe it to be a major structural problem it's obvious that sentiment has affected the stock several factors have affected the stock including a broad decline in attitude toward AI as people start to doubt RI additionally It Is burdened by this problem however I don't believe Nvidia has changed structurally we had a slight push out but I believe everything will work out as you say there is still demand what about the stock itself how enticing is it given its multiple even at its height Nvidia was around 40 times projected profits and the sell-side figures are probably too low the company has never been that costly it's actually not that expensive 40 times is roughly its 5-year median it's likely 30 times forward now even if it
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