저자: DanIves · 외국인
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엔비디아 실적은 블랙웰 지연 우려를 해소했고 기업 수요가 공급을 크게 웃돈다고 평가. AI 혁명은 초기 단계(바닥 첫 이닝)라 주장. 실적 발표 후 주가 급락은 기대 과다 때문이며, 공급망 체크상 수요 증가로 6개월 내 시총 4조달러 전망. AI 확산에 따라 AMD·소프트웨어·인프라 등 2차·3차 수혜주 기대, 2025년까지 기술주 상승 관점 제시.
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a Dan you have become highly synonymous with the I Revolution and Nvidia story of all the people I could think of who have been bullish on Nvidia you have probably been bullish the longest and the magnitude of your bullishness has probably been the closest to really capture what the opportunity has been and will be with this stock and just as a general investing theme nothing I heard on the Nvidia call Wednesday night changes any of that and I don't think it's changing any of that for you either but if you want to just start off give me the broad Strokes on what we heard and then we can get into some of the individual takeaways and thanks for those words from you it makes it fun I I'll look as you and I have talked about a lot it's all about putting the data points together after you come out of the call I'd actually say I'm incrementally more bullish not even just on VI but on the overall eyewave because of the Blackwell delay if there was going to be one headwind or black cloud they put that to rest in terms of yields and any issues there demand has Supply tapped anywhere from 10 to 15 to 1 right so when I look at the underlying Enterprise demand not just in big Tech but even like when you look at sovereigns and what I think ultimately will be the rest of sort of Enterprise this is a story I still view as the bottom of the first top of the second inning I continue to view it as LeBron in high school interviewer so you really do still believe it's that early Dan yes we're only only 3% maybe 5% tops of Enterprises globally have even gone down this path right so it comes down to like you know sometimes I think it's very easy to not see the forest for the trees in terms of like okay the October quarter 32.5 billion Whispers 33 billion but now the focus is more on this as a company ultimately going toward 50 75 billion eventually 100 billion per quarter yeah and I think that to me is really the trend not just for NVIDIA but for what it just means for the rest of the AI Tech space interviewer so I want to quote you this was the opening paragraph of your post earnings research note nvidia's earnings last night were front and center globally as the Godfather of AI Jensen or the torchbearer of this a revolution the tech staart delivered massive quote dropped the mic numbers yet again that easily beat the street with a Topline That Grew 122% From A year ago quarter with 30 billion of Revenue and a robust outlook for the October quarter of 32.5 billion 80% growth while some buy side whisper expectations were a tad higher for the October quarter we believe in vidia's surging eye chip demand Blackwell delay concerns lay to rest robust Outlook and a meteoric Enterprise pipeline speak to this a revolution just starting to kick off its next phase of growth I think a lot of people had that reaction but the stock price didn't what do you think is the main reason for why we saw Nvidia sell off almost 6 or 7% in the immediate aftermath of that report Dan I just think it's like people expect Jensen to win 60 to0 60 to 60 if it's 63 they see it as a loss by three so the point is like you're expecting like okay could they give a 34 billion number just another it was basically what I view as call it you know half a billion higher than sort of the base maybe a little Delow whisper I think it ends up probably being close to a 34 billion number because I think now Nvidia recognizes when you're in this parabolic Parabola especially with Blackwell there's no reason for them to give a 34 billion estimate even though I think that's ultimately where it's going interviewer so you think we've gotten spoiled and it's still an incredible growth story but maybe the expectations were fully baked in at least for this particular quarter not for the long term Dan and I think what's now going to start to happen Josh at this point in the next month and with Nvidia next week anyone that's doing supply chain checks it's actually increasing in terms of demand over supply all of a sudden what starts to happen is the next drum roll starts hold on a second 32.5 is probably a sandbag number all of a sudden the stock starts to you know what I believe will continue to creep back up and I believe we're looking at a 4 trillion market cap for NVIDIA in the next 6 months I just don't see what's stopping it given all the demand we're seeing from hyperscalers from Enterprise the use cases now are exploding that's why people dismissed paner but look at them look at service now look at what we're seeing with Oracle that to me is the next phase the use cases and Jensen hit on that a bit interviewer I want to talk about demand you said there will come a time when competition from AMD and others ramps up but essentially a trillion dollars of aiex over the next few years is coming its way and last night's conference call further confirmed this demand Outlook the stage is set for tech stocks to move higher into year end and 2025 in our opinion as the fed and paddle kick off their rate cutting cycle macrosoft Landing Remains The Path and Tech spending on a remains a generational spending cycle just starting to hit the shores of the tech sector we continue to estimate for every $1 spent on an Nvidia GPU chip there is an $8 to $10 multiplier across the tech sector which speaks to our firmly bullish view of tech stocks over the next year so you are very constructive on Tech going into year end and heading into 2025 and that multiplier effect because of the GPU spend means a lot of opportunity for a lot of stocks not just Nvidia Dan that's exactly right see that's exactly what we really want and what we talk to boards about is the multiplier because everyone thinks oh it's Nvidia it's Microsoft no this now kicks off a cycle we basically have never seen before and anytime someone puts the Cisco comparison to Nvidia show the chart it looks I covered Tech back then Cisco 90% of their customers were essentially leverage startups and others in that sector who's the customer base of Nvidia it's companies with 1.2 trillion on the balance sheet government so my whole point is that I get the comparison looks great in a chart appealing but you cannot compare what we see here it's the entire fourth Industrial Revolution that's being built out and I think now it's the next phase it's the software it's infrastructure its other parts of semiconductors its names like AMD its names in cyber security how are you going to protect the workloads so that to me is really where I see everything that's why I'm so excited about second third fourth derivatives interviewer you've made this point and so has Wong about Sovereign Ai and every country for security and for cultural reasons having its own AE that's almost like purpose built for the nation in which the people are going to use it is that opportunity being underestimated currently when you look at the valuation of a AMD Nvidia Dell HP do people not fully appreciate the extent to which I is like a must have as opposed to a nice to have Dan yeah and I think that's a great question I think actually the biggest thing that's not being priced in is the incremental Tech capex spend the tech capex from the stars is priced in what's not being priced in is the incremental spend I think you're going to see from governments I mean if I look at typical government and Enterprise budgets think government 8 to 10% sometimes 12% overall spend that's not in numbers yet so as this all plays out any company any government it all starts with that red phone there's only one place where you're getting the chip it's the new gold it's the new oil so here's the big question how much Nvidia stock do you need to become a millionaire by 2027 the answer might shock you if you already have over $100,000 invested in viia right now you're well on your way let me know if you'd like further adjustments
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