저자: StanleyDruckenmiller—발언자실명은채널인용 · 외국인
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결론: 드러켄밀러는 과잉 유동성 이후 강한 긴축으로 심각한 경기침체가 사실상 불가피하다고 본다(시기는 불확실). [핵심 주장: 연준 정책 실패] 연준이 2021년 인플레이션 상승 후에도 금리를 제로에 가깝게 두고 월 1200억달러 채권 매입을 지속해 자산 버블을 키웠다고 비판한다. 반면 2023년 들어 500bp 급격 인상으로 방향을 바꿨다. 역사적으로 금리 2% 미만이 장기간 지속된 뒤에는 대개 어려운 경기 국면이 뒤따랐다고 본다. [근거 지표] 1950년 이후 연착륙은 소수뿐이며, 모두 사후 대응이 아닌 선제적 연준 정책 뒤에 나왔다. 트럭킹 지표(6~8개월 선행)는 역대급으로 약하다고 본다. 주택·여행·레저 지표는 여전히 견조하다. [금융·상업용 부동산 리스크] 지역은행의 상업용 부동산 대출 비중이 평균 약 43%이고, 그중 약 40%가 오피스다. 재택근무로 공실률이 2008년보다 높다. 은행 위기로 신용 공급이 줄어 중소기업과 고용에 타격이 예상된다. [시기 전망] 장단기 금리 역전을 근거로 2023년 3~4분기~2024년 1분기 침체 가능성을 언급하되, 은행 문제가 이미 2023년 2분기 무렵 시작됐을 수 있다고 본다. [주식시장 전망] 현재 S&P500 PER 18~19배, 이익 추정치는 여전히 낙관적이어서 시장이 침체를 반영하지 않는다고 본다. 침체가 현실화되면 이익 하향과 밸류에이션 하락이 뒤따르므로 지금은 신중하고 유동성을 높게 유지하라고 조언한다. [조건·리스크] 연착륙 가능성은 낮다고 보지만 확신은 없다고 언급한다. 고용시장이 여전히 타이트해 인플레이션 압력이 남아 있다는 점도 함께 짚는다. [출연자 전망 요약] 단기적 하락 리스크를 강하게 경고하며, 시장 급락 시 기회가 생길 것으로 본다.
다듬은 글
hey this is Greg welcome to the channel well Stanley druckenmiller is one of the greatest investors of all time he's been in the business for many many years he's one of the Masters of the Universe known as one of the greatest macro traders of all time and he's here today I've got a special treat for you I've taken excerpts from his recent interview at the sewn conference this year and his interviews are very rare so this is a special treat I'm going to play clips from his interview and then I'm going to make comments he talks about the economy he talks about the massive failure of fed policy and he talks about what he thinks are the probabilities of the coming recession as you know I've been saying for years that my observation was the worst economic outcomes tended to follow asset bubbles I was only looking at the past hundred years or so and um Edward Chancellor's book a real tour de force describes how this has been going on for over 500 years and basically every time you've had interest rates below two percent going back 500 years it's generally been followed um with with difficult Economic Times so if you look at the current menu um I think it was actually just just a little over two years ago I went on national television and said we had monetary policy that was the most Reckless and extreme relative the economic circumstances I had ever seen and at that time inflation was two and a half percent you had a booming economy you were coming out because covet and it was clear post vaccine that we were we were on our way to maybe the most rapid recovery um I had seen in my lifetime I was not surprised about a year later than an inflation reached nine percent I was not surprised that specs went crazy Bitcoin went crazy Dogecoin went crazy uh equities went crazy what I was surprised by was that for the next year while all that happened um Jerome Powell's fed continued to have their foot on the gas they continued to buy 120 billion dollars a bonds a month while rates were zero um this obviously led to everything I just described then I'm realizing they had probably made the biggest mistake in the history of the FED they slammed on the brakes um they've raised rates 500 basis points in the last year um we know historically two things which you've already articulated number one um the worst economic outcomes tend to follow uh too easily engineered um asset levels and number two Big Macs on my business don't fight the Fed so I'm sitting here staring in the face at the biggest asset and probably the broadest asset bubble forget that I've ever seen that I've ever studied it went on for 10 or 11 years and then it's the grand finale um the government spent 5 trillion on coved the FED financed 60 of it and as I just described now we now we have a big hike in interest rates um it's hard to look at that constellation of factors know that we've only had a few soft Landings since 1950 all of them were preceded by what I would call Proactive rather than reactive fed policies and believe we're going to have a soft Landing one never knows but if you're just looking at the odds they're very tough in terms of the timing um I have left much less certainty on that than I do on whether we're going to have a hard Landing or a soft Landing the timing is difficult but I will say you've already noted in our shop we tend to use anecdotal information a lot it's somewhat mixed um housing which has tended to lead historically is actually um fairly fairly robust um travel restaurants stuff like that is fairly robust but other stuff um Trucking which has been a Guiding Light for my firms in terms of economic forecasting with a six to eight month lead time um actually since I got in the business is extremely weak we're hearing bad bad anecdotes from retail and then of course you have the you've already mentioned it the the banking problem we always knew um given what I've already described there are going to be bodies out there when you have free money um people do stupid things when you have free money for 11 years people do really stupid things free money people do stupid things when you have free money for 11 years people do really stupid things I love that I love that that was great well on this initial clip he touched on a lot of things uh I think he is basically making the point that even if you go back 500 years and look at every period where uh monetary policy provided free money and then dramatically increased the interest rates there has always been with maybe a couple exceptions a recession that followed and in most cases a rather severe recession now the fed's failings at this point are nearly legendary okay he referred in his comments here proactive versus reactive fed in the cases where he saw that the recession was either a soft Landing or or non-existent where situations where the FED policy was more proactive clearly in this case it's been reactive and it's been merely reacting to these massive mistakes that they made after uh the covid pandemic and after the economy was already recovering strongly the FED kept interest rates too long for too low and continued to completely flood the market with liquidity by buying 120 billion dollars of securities every month this along with the massive 5 billion dollars of fiscal spending caused the economy to explode so to speak and caused inflation to go out of control so ever since the FED realized that inflation wasn't transitory they've been reacting to data data has been coming out showing strength in different areas of the economy showing strength in different areas where you have still high inflation even though the headline number is coming down um he made reference to housing he made reference to travel and Leisure those are still showing a very strong statistics however he did not mention unemployment which the employment situation is still extraordinarily tight which is still very inflationary but he thinks that the timing of it is rather uncertain but I think what I got from this is he is forecasting a severe recession and he's basically saying that it's inescapable at this point let's continue so there's stuff under the hood it's starting to emerge obviously the regional Banks recently we had Bed Bath and Beyond but I would assume there's a lot more bodies coming the regional Banks the median Regional Bank has 43 percent of their um loans in commercial real estate about 40 percent of that is office as you know we've had this huge change in lifestyle um due to covet number one the great resignation but number two people aren't going to the office so we have actually a higher vacancy rate than we had in 2008 so I put all that together and I look also at the inverted yield curve the timing has always said sort of third probably fourth quarter of this year to first quarter of 24.
but the recent anecdotes the banking problems I wouldn't be surprised if the bean counters a year from now as they tend to do backward looking that the things started sometime in the second quarter I don't know that but I do this for a living so I gotta have a forecast I love that I do this for a living so I have to have a forecast that's great I think that uh he again is not questioning whether we are going to have a recession because of the magnitude of the interest rate increases 500 basis points in a year I think he's just merely questioning the timing and of course zeroing in on the timing of when these recessions are going to occur is very difficult I thought it was interesting he brought up another variable being the banking crisis and how that could affect the economy he didn't refer directly to that but I think that's what he was referring to and that is another impediment to economic growth if you have the banks pulling back that's going to hurt the economy because it's going to make Capital more difficult for individuals to access and also small businesses which are the backbone of the American economy and also many people are employed by smaller businesses so I think the wind up is for stock investors you have to be cautious in here because I do not think that the stock market is discounting a recession in terms of earnings and in terms of multiples I mean it's just not it's just not multiples are at 18 19 on the S P um you know and I think that uh earnings estimates are still far too Rosy and so I don't think the stock market is discounting a recession once we go into a recession it's going to be too late because then the earnings forecasts are going to come down and the valuations are going to come down so I want you to be cautious in here I want you to have a lot of liquidity and I want you to be super liquid when the really hits the fan and the opportunities abound and that's when we're going to make comments on this channel now I edited this down to a very small portion of the total interview the total interview is about an hour long if this video does well and if people are interested give me your comments below I will do a second and a third installment so you can get the full picture and but until then I'd like you to take a look at this video and I think this video will be of interest to you because it goes into further detail on the markets and the future of the economy so thanks for watching and if you got value out of this please subscribe and like I'd love to have you on board for future videos so until then thanks again for watching and I'll see you on the next video foreign
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