저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
연초 증시 부진에도 1월 신고가 경신 가능성을 기본 시나리오로 유지하며, 상반기는 험난하나 연말 강세를 전망. 경제지표는 고용 둔화와 물가 하락(주택 3%대는 2%대 물가와 정합)을 긍정적으로 해석. 증시 상승은 금리 인하 횟수보다 인플레이션의 2% 근접과 글로벌 실적 회복에 달려 있다고 주장. S&P500 약 10% 상승 전망.
다듬은 글
happy New Year Scott are you wavering At All by virtue of what's going on this week uh we're not wavering but it's clearly not a good start to the year I mean uh you know markets almost got to an all-time high at the end of last year and the first four trading days days of this year have been really terrible um me I can see what the Market's struggling with because as your guest previously talked about you know part of it is when the FED cuts and I think people are still jumpy about a strong labor market and if inflation happing but our base case Still Remains that you know we we're going to see alltime highs in January and then I think the market is tough in the first half of this year because of some of those things but we'll we'll overall end up Strong by the end of the year well you're not you're not rethinking your own Outlook at all by you know how I mean you obviously sound somewhat concerned by the the way this year has started maybe it didn't go according to your plan so how's that all factoring into your psyche well yeah I mean I think it is disappointing cuz you know the the year tends to play out in in January so the fact that we are you know sort of had a failed Santa Claus rally and the first 5 days is pretty important and the market looks like it's going to be negative just tells you that um the fundamentals might which have been improving aren't necessarily going to convince investors to be buying stocks so I do think it's telling us it's going to be a tough year but the reason I'm we're not wavering is that the the reasons we think 2024 will be a good year for stocks has to do with the fact that the pmis are bottoming and inflation's falling like a rock and the FED has pivoted and is now managing a business cycle I mean those are really good anchors and supports for why stocks can do well but you know it's not a great start I mean it'd be much better if we were up for the week yeah well I mean bulls would feel better what about this ISM Services report I mean I know you talk about pmis but is that concerning to you well it's uh there's there's pluses and minuses I mean to me um I think the ism services employment number and you know the manufacturing number show you that the labor report we got today may not be as strong as it looks and I think that's actually good because we don't want a labor market showing signs of Rejuvenation I think the trend there is is sort of softer employment growth and from a prices perspective I think it's pretty supportive of what we been seeing which is you know prices are falling and as long as housing and cars don't surge um you know housing growing at 3% is fine that's consistent with 2% inflation I think inflation is going to eventually be viewed as you know approaching Target and that's actually good so uh Scott you know the data isn't always in a straight line I think it's a little messy this week and I think it is disappointing to see but I think too many are going to be quickly turning bearish and then put on their hard Landing or skeptic hat or the FED Hawk hat and I think that's going to prove to be a mistake so you you you look for about 10% out of the S&P but more or less is what you think we're going to do from from here uh how many Cuts do you need to get that well you know it's uh it's not as dependent on Cuts as it's dependent on really inflation approaching you know what we'd all accept as like you know close enough to 2% so that the FED is no longer fighting inflation so I it's not going to be as important as Cuts as really sort of the quality of of the inflation data and I think the second is that you know we do need to have a rebound in earnings and Global growth which I do think is underway and you as you know inflation is normalizing outside the US and when you have that combination of inflation sort of normalizing and real growth recovery I mean that's that's good for stock so it's not it's not dependent on the number of cuts
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