"Bond King" Jeffrey Gundlach's Dire Recession Warning

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자막 내 발언자는 Jeffrey Gundlach으로 제목 기준 DoubleLine 소속이며, 역전된 수익률곡선(2y-10y, 최대 -108bp, 현재 약 -18bp 수준으로 축소)이 80주 이상 지속되었고, 장단기 금리차가 역전 해소(de-inversion)되는 시점이 경기침체 경보 신호라고 주장. 선행지수는 21개월 연속 하락했으나 서비스업 중심 GDP로 지표 왜곡 가능성 언급. 주 정부별 실업률은 88%가 6개월간 상승 중인데 전국 실업률은 낮게 유지되는 괴리를 지적하며 JOLTS 응답률 하락(75%→35%)으로 데이터 신뢰도 의문 제기.

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01. hi this is Greg welcome to the channel so Jeffrey gunlock is a famous investor he manages $96 billion of money he's a billionaire and he's also referred to as the bond King I'm going to play you a clip that I find very interesting where he talks about the changes in the inverted yield curve that have happened over the last like 18 months and how those changes and the narrowing of the inversion could be pointing to a potential downturn in the economy and a recession very interesting observation as to how a bond guy uh looks at this and I've said many times that if you want to understand the markets and more specifically the stock market look at the bond market because I believe that the participants in the bond market are on average much smarter than the stock market investors which has a lot of nonsense and a lot of emo uh it's the bond market is much more quantitative and some of the smartest people on the planet are active in the bond market the other thing he brings up which I think is extremely interesting is the discrepancy he sees between the state unemployment numbers if you look at them from a state-by-state basis and then if you look at the national unemployment numbers and some of the leading indicators that you're getting from the government the the two things are not coinciding and matching up and he's got some very interesting observations in that regard check out this clip yes well the yield curve has been inverted now uh for about 80 weeks maybe a little more than 80 weeks which is I'm talking about twos to 10 and you can look at almost all comparisons they've been inverted for about that time period the only uh uh episode that had a longer period of inverted yield curve before the recession came was in the late '70s early 80s which interestingly was also the last time we had an inflation fight going on although that one was uh much more difficult than this one appears to be so I I I think though that the thing on the yield curve that's important is the twoos 10 was negative 108 basis points the 10e yeld was lower than the 2-year yield by 108 basis points and now it's 18 and when you start to De invert you really get to be on recession watch and the fact that recession hasn't come after 80 plus weeks of V Cur inversion is a very bad logic to say it's not coming because the de inversion is happening when it comes to a leading economic indicators they've fallen for 21 consecutive months but the thing that's wrong about uh historical comparisons or misleading perhaps about historical comparisons is this economy has been very strange in that manufacturing was very strong in 2021 2022 with all that stimulus that came in and it went to a lot of uh durable goods you know a type of prop products and the leading economic indicators are skewed towards manufacturing so it's not surprising that they've been weak for a long time because they're very manufacturing oriented and Manufacturing is very weak but the economy handed off the GDP if you will to the services sector starting about 18 months ago and and that uh has skewed a lot of these economic indicators so the leading economic indicators have been very negative for a long time the yield curve has been inverted for a long time but the thing that I'm most concerned about now economically is reports coming from the states we look at national unemployment data and we you I saw heard in the previous segment talking about that I thought it was a good conversation but the states release unemployment data too and amazingly 88% of the states I think they have DC in there so there's 51 of them 88% of them are reporting Rising unemployment over the last 6 months and I'm having a very hard time squaring this circle if 88% of the states are reporting Rising unemployment how can it be that national unemployment remains stable at a very very low level um I guess the only logic would be that the other 12% of the states are making up for all of that Rising unemployment which is kind of hard to believe because those States while it includes Texas and I think includes Pennsylvania it also includes North Dakota and Wyoming it's hard for me to believe that this set of states can offset Rising unemployment in Florida Illinois uh California New York and so I'm I'm skeptical about this data um and and so I I I noticed that in the jolts survey that job openings thing that was getting a lot of play because it was so elevated uh the percentage of of surveyors responding to the survey uh used to be 75% and now it's down I'm talking about maybe 5 years ago and now it's down to 35% so what is going on here that suddenly 35 5% responding I I wonder if the survey data is really comparable to past periods there's no so I don't know I I go ahead no I was just going to say that there's no doubt that we should there's there's a lot less reli they feel a lot less reliable by the way I was going to say also with the states uh the so-called Som rule uh the speed of which some of these states are losing on jobs or the unemployment rate 20 are technically in recession already oh