저자: DLAMarkets진행자 · 외국인
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미 경제에 허리케인급 위기가 다가온다는 결론. 제이미 다이먼(JP모건)과 일론 머스크의 경고를 인용하며 주식 시장 전반에 매우 부정적인 전망을 제시함. [거시 배경] 연준이 과잉 유동성 공급 후 긴축(금리 인상·대차대조표 축소)으로 전환했고, 이는 과거 2017~2018년 파월 긴축처럼 정치적 압력으로 중단될 수 있다고 주장. [인플레이션·재정] 바이든 정부의 대규모 재정지출이 인플레이션을 유발했고, 체감 물가상승률은 15~20%로 공표치(8.3%)보다 높다고 주장. 이로 인해 수요 파괴와 기업 이익률 압박이 본격화될 것이며 향후 몇 달 내 이익 추정치가 하향될 것이라 전망. [에너지·지정학] 유가 100달러 이상, 휘발유 사상 최고치 등 에너지 위기 지속. 화석연료 정책과 러시아 제재·우크라이나 지원이 에너지 비용을 끌어올린다고 진단. 유럽의 러시아산 원유 금수 조치도 추가 압력으로 언급. [투자 전략] 현금 비중 확대, 베어마켓 랠리 때 손실 종목 매도, 장기 투자자는 메가캡 기술주·고배당주 보유 권고. 에너지 주식(엑슨·셰브론)은 강세 유지 전망이며 이후 상황에 따라 비중 조정 예정. 상품 ETF(산업금속 중심)도 언급. 비트코인·스테이블코인은 투기적 자산이며 테라USD 붕괴(850억 달러 손실)를 근거로 강하게 부정적. [결론] 미국 경제는 장기적으로 회복력이 강하다고 봐 미국 경제에 공매도하지 말라고 조언. 단기적으로는 시장이 베어마켓 상태라고 판단.
다듬은 글
it's a hurricane it's we right now it's kind of sunny things are doing fine you know everyone thinks the the fed can handle this that hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way we just don't know if it's a minor one or a sandy or uh yeah sandy or or uh andrew or something like that and it's you you better brace yourself whoa if that doesn't make your bowels watery nothing will you're gonna need a massive supply of adult diapers maybe a case okay so jamie dimon came out this week with a dire warning it's a hurricane there is a hurricane coming and it is a very scary situation when someone as influential and knowledgeable as jamie dimon comes out and says this another titan of industry came out this week elon musk and said that he has a super bad feeling about what's about to happen in the economy and in the macro environment this is all very concerning but it really fits in with what we've been talking about on this channel for a very long time all right so i've said on past videos that really what's happening today is really unique in the sense that um there have never been at least in my memory or in my lifetime and and most of the people watching this video's lifetime there's never been a confluence of events that have happened simultaneously or have evolved together like this that is really happening right now and it's it's really quite unbelievable all right you have the fed tightening credit after an incredibly loose period of monetary policy where they were literally printing money buying securities pumping up the balance sheet to nine trillion dollars and just flooding the stock market and the economy with liquidity simultaneously you had the government irresponsibly involved in massive deficit spending joe biden comes in and after six trillion dollars of uh unbelievable spending previous to him coming in which some of some of which was justified because of covid he comes in when the economy's already expanding at a rapid rate and pumps in another 1.9 trillion dollars right at the wrong time creating an enormous supply demand imbalance okay so right now you have the fed realizing they're completely behind the curve and they have to do something so they are raising interest rates they're reducing their balance sheet known as quantitative tightening which we've talked about on this channel and in addition to that they are not printing 120 billion dollars of of money and buying securities and basically manipulating the bond market right so now you have true price discovery which is developing in the bond market you have interest rates going up uh you have all the effects that that brings in and at the same time they're draining liquidity out of the system okay this setup with the fed combined with all the other things i'm going to talk about are literally it's literally the worst setup i've ever seen for stocks in my lifetime okay and probably ever in the history of of uh of the stock market um the only time you've seen this quantitative tightening uh was in 2017 2018 when powell started to do this he did it for approximately a year and then trump shut it down for political reasons and he backed off which proves a lot of what i've been saying on this channel for many months that powell uh is enormously political uh he caves to political pressure and this is one of the reasons why we're in the situation that we're in now the second factor is we have enormous and out of control inflation which is the direct result of the massive fiscal spending uh deficit spending that we talked about and uh the extremely lacks an accommodative policies of the fed which went on way too long so now we're all suffering with enormous inflation right the last print was 8.3 percent but we all know that the actual inflation rate is much higher than that if we go to the store if we fill up our tank if we try to heat our house we know that the inflation rate is closer to 15 to 20 percent okay so that over time is going to create enormous demand destruction in the economy and it's going to put massive uh pressure on corporate profits and i don't think this uh the full effect of this has really hit even though you see uh walmart and target uh saying that it's affecting sales and it's affecting their margins the full effect of this has not been realized but within the next couple months i believe you're going to be seeing the full effect start to manifest as these uh profit estimates continue to come down and as you see this not only demand destruction on the sales side but also margin destruction on the profitability side on top of all this you have an enormous and unprecedented energy crisis okay you have gas prices at all time highs you have oil consistently above a hundred dollars a barrel and this not only is an enormous pressure toward increasing prices across the board right because everything in our economy and economy around the world is basically based on oil and gas it's driving up the cost of everything throughout the entire economy and nobody's doing anything about it because you have politicians particularly the joe biden administration who have declared from the very beginning a war on fossil fuels and have done everything they possibly can to inhibit the growth of energy production in the united states and uh it ha it has affected us tremendously but there's also a similar effect around the entire world next you have the geopolitical situation the war in ukraine has put further pressure on energy costs recently the eu just announced that they're going to do a full phased-in embargo on russian oil that will put further pressure on oil prices and there's really no end in sight in this and with russia pressing on with the war in ukraine and the united states continuing to fund uh the ukraine in terms of another 40 billion dollars that are going to them for the war effort the us is you know directly contributing to this war just going on and on and on now we hear that russia is able to sell their oil to india and china circumventing basically these sanctions so even though they're selling that oil at a discount it's still essentially funding the war effort so this could go on for a very long time the next thing that i find very disturbing and i don't see any end in sight at least in the near term for this is the domestic political situation all right i've mentioned previously i talked about this extensively that the joe biden administration when he first came in he killed the xl pipeline you know and he's done everything he possibly can do to reduce the production of domestic oil and gas in this country and what this has done is it's driven up both the the price of oil and gasoline now gasoline the price of gasoline is also dependent on the lack of refining capacity so there are other factors that go into this but the biden administration has really done nothing to improve the situation and incredibly i sit there and just like cannot believe what i'm seeing but joe biden yesterday uh says uh well there's basically nothing he can do about inflation or about gas prices okay so he basically throws in the towel and uh he blames putin calls it the putin gas hike and all of this nonsense regardless of where you stand on the political spectrum this this has got to be the worst administration i've ever seen i mean in terms of they make every decision based on politics every single decision they make is a political decision they make no practical decisions um nothing is decided upon based on analysis and what needs to get done and this is really horrible for the country and it's really horrible for the economy so i've been predicting for many months now uh and i have to admit or i have to observe that i was ahead of the curve because now a lot of people are talking about it but when i started talking about it six months ago i went back and looked um nobody was talking about a recession okay but now i believe a recession is inevitable okay so you have all these factors conspiring together to create one of the most toxic situations you can possibly imagine and this is what jamie dimon was talking about when he says it's a hurricane okay and i say it's a tsunami i also say it's an atomic bomb whatever you want to say um it's just horrible for the economy and the setup is very very negative for stocks and for investments in general and you're seeing it across the board in stocks real estate crypto forget about crypto okay crypto was invented in a period of excessive money printing an excessively accommodative fed policy it is a pure speculation and you can see how rapidly the air is coming out of the of that market because it is a purely speculative asset class it depends on the next guy paying more than you there's no intrinsic value in bitcoin tara usd recently blew up and you you see the fallacious nature of these stable coins uh purely a ponzi scheme 85 billion dollars were lost in that ponzi scheme in like a matter of days i mean if this doesn't give people cause for concern or or pause them in their excitement for uh bitcoin and it's ilk nothing will okay trust me on this one it's not just because i'm older more and it's not and it's not just because warren buffett and charlie munger are in their 90s and you think that just because they're old they don't understand it they understand it trust me they understand it and so that's just a word of caution i know you're probably not going to believe me if you're very interested in crypto but time will tell on that one okay but the bottom line is what do we do as investors here with all these storm clouds and this hurricane coming directly for us it could be a direct hit we're sitting there alone on a tropical island in a lean to and this hurricane is barreling toward us what do we do to protect ourselves okay there's a couple things we can do first of all i've said for a long time at least six months the best way to protect yourself is to build your cash position in your portfolio okay this does two things it provides you with dry powder uh to to come back into the market uh at a later point in time and it also reduces your portfolio's uh volatility okay people say cash is trash that's complete bs because even though yes in real terms you're going to lose the value of how much inflation is going up um i'd rather do that than lose 25 30 percent in gross stocks all right so use these bear market rallies which in some cases can be quite extensive to sell your losers and raise cash so that you can be more liquid and live to fight another day second of all i've suggested on this channel uh if you're a long-term investor look at the mega cap tech stocks i just recently did a video recommending that you buy alphabet before the 20 for one stock split so i'll put that in the description and i'll also put it up here at the end of the video so you can take a look at it highly recommend doing that again if you're a long-term investor i've also recommended high quality dividend stocks uh i've done a number of videos on this channel related to that so i will refer you to to those take a look at some of the playlists and you can find those on the channel and take a look at them secondly we've been very big on this channel with respect to energy stocks i recommended exxon and chevron way back the height of the pandemic and uh i continue to recommend them um they basically tripled since i started recommending them in 2020.
year-to-date exxon's up like 58 i'm still very bullish on energy and until the geopolitical situation and or the economy crashes or whatever as situation changes i will update on this channel to let you know when i am no longer bullish or when i am trimming my enormous allocation to energy stocks which have done incredibly well finally i've recommended the commodity etfs you can also invest in commodity stocks directly if you want to do that research but the commodity etfs which i've recommended are largely focused on the industrial metals okay so there's no sure way to protect yourself in stocks i don't recommend that you completely get out of the stock market because as a long-term investor i always want to have some exposure and sometimes you just have to ride out if you're in the right names you just want to ride out these downturns but this one is going to be a doozy and again i would use any bear market rally here because we are in a bear market to increase your cash position and sell your losers and get out of any companies that do not have a very long history of uh profit and cash flow growth all right so that's what i have to say today listen to jamie dimon listen to elon musk these guys are very smart and uh they're talking about something that is real we have never seen a situation like this but we'll get through it somehow uh never short the u.s economy it's the most resilient and the deepest economy in the world we will come through this and we will be better and stronger when we come out the other side all right so thank you for watching i hope you got some value out of this if you did please like and subscribe and i'd love to have you on board uh for the next video where we talk about the markets we talk about economics and we talk about specific stock recommendations and investment recommendations on this channel so be sure to subscribe so you can be on board for future presentations which will be coming your way very soon
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