저자: MohamedEl-Erian/진행자DLAMarkets · 외국인
요약 보기
강한 달러는 세계 경제의 '파괴적 쇄도'다 달러 강세의 원인과 구조 달러는 세계 기축통화로, 석유·가스 등 주요 거래가 달러로 이뤄져 달러 강세는 각국 수입물가와 인플레이션을 키운다. 연준의 금리 인상이 달러 강세를 불러왔으며, 이는 개발도상국에 특히 큰 타격을 준다. 개발도상국 부채 위기 우려 개발도상국은 달러 표시 부채가 많아, 자국 통화가 약세일수록 원리금 부담이 급증한다. 과거 1980년대 중남미 부채위기 때도 금리 상승·달러 강세·유가 하락이 겹쳐 다수 국가가 채무불이행 직전까지 갔다는 사례가 제시됐다. 현재도 유사한 상황이 전개되고 있다고 진단한다. 영국 파운드 급락 사례 영국은 선진국이지만 파운드가 사상 최저치를 기록했고, 2년물 금리가 55bp 급등했다. 영국 중앙은행이 채권을 매입해 시장에 유동성을 공급하고 감세를 병행한 것은 다른 중앙은행들의 긴축 기조와 상충된다는 평가다. El-Erian의 견해: 정책 일관성 붕괴 긴축 기조에서 유동성 공급으로 선회하는 것은 정책 일관성의 문제이며, 금융안정과 인플레이션 억제 사이 상충이 커졌다. 중앙은행이 변동성을 억제하기보다 오히려 변동성을 키우고 있다고 지적한다. 향후 전망: 험난한 조정 국면 과거 저금리·양적완화로 쌓인 자산 버블과 왜곡이 바로잡히는 과정은 매우 고통스러울 것이며, 세계 시장 전반에 큰 혼란이 예상된다. 정책 전환의 어려움 때문에 '출구'는 점점 더 복잡해진다는 입장이다. 언급 자산 방향 및 구체 수치 예측 원/달러·달러 강세 지속 관련 구체적 목표가나 수치 예측은 없음. 미국 모기지 금리 7%, 영국 2년물 금리 55bp 급등 등은 과거·현재 사실로만 언급됨.
다듬은 글
foreign appreciation of the dollar against World currencies caused by the fed's change in policy to fight inflation by raising interest rates has turned the dollar into an economic working ball hey all right so in this video we're going to talk about the rapid rise in the Dollar's value and its effect on foreign governments particularly developing nations and we're also going to talk about the rapid devaluation of the pound and I'm going to have some clips from Muhammad alerian on the subject it's going to be very interesting and it's going to help you to really understand how the strong dollar is affecting and in many cases destroying world economies okay so the Dollar's importance to the world's economy cannot be overstated the dollar is considered the world's Reserve currency now what does this mean what this means is that many transactions that occur throughout the world in the economy and by many many countries around the world these transactions have to be conducted in dollars okay this is because the dollar is the world's Reserve currency or the standard by which the world transacts goods and services a perfect example of this is oil and gas if you are a China Venezuela Italy any country in the world if you want to do a major transaction and go on the World Market and buy oil or gas you have to convert your currency in two dollars it's called Petro dollars all major transactions in the energy Market are conducted in dollars so what this means is if your currency has devalued tremendously against the dollar you are going to have to put up more of your currency when you convert to Dollars therefore everything is more expensive so as a result the strong dollar can contributes to inflation for every country that has to convert their currency into Dollars oil and gas is more expensive virtually every good that you have to buy on the World Market that is transacted in dollars becomes more expensive and nowhere does this hurt an economy more than in the developing world and the reason for this is because their currencies tend to be the weakest and they tend to depreciate the most against the dollar in addition most developing countries borrow money on the world markets denominated in dollars here's a look at the most indebted nations in Latin America and the Caribbean countries you can see Brazil Mexico Colombia Peru are among the most indebted and many of these countries borrow in dollar denominated Securities so when their currency devalues against the dollar their debt automatically comes much more expensive this situation is not without precedent in the late 70s early 80s there was something called the Latin debt crisis and what this basically was was record high inflation during the 80s caused by the federal reserve's effort to curb oil-based inflation it was a little bit different it wasn't based on um the dollar appreciating because of just the rise in interest rate rates it was a combination of a rise in interest rates and also a decline in in oil prices so these developing nations many of them which were dependent on selling oil to pay their Debt Service the oil prices went down and at the same time interest rates went up and they got squeezed in August 1982 the Mexican Finance Minister indicated that his Nation could no longer make the interest payments by the end of 1982 approximately 40 nations were in arrears in their interest payments and a year later 27 Nations including four major Latin American countries such as Mexico Brazil Venezuela and Argentina were in negotiations to restructure their existing loans now back in those days it was more of a banking crisis because a lot of this debt was lent to these countries by Banks but nevertheless you had the same situation where you had Rising interest rates and at the same time you had an increase in the value of the dollar and you had as I mentioned earlier a decline in oil value so they got hit with the triple whammy and many of these countries defaulted so fast forward to today you're seeing a similar situation and literally every developing nation that has dollar denominated debt you're seeing their costs Rising not only from everything because of inflation and some of these developing countries are seeing inflation rates that are just unconscionable 40 percent Etc but you're also seeing all of their dollar denominated debt just spiral out of control in terms of cost relative to their currency one of the recent examples of this was the enormous devaluation recently of the pound relative to the dollar now obviously England is not a developing Nation but you can see how it's even affecting developed Nations to the extent that they have to pay debt that's denominated in dollars and or just buy things on the open market due to inflation the UK hit an all-time low against the dollar as the two-year yield soars 55 basis points the rapid depreciation in the pound can be seen in this chart where it hit the all-time record low just earlier this week this resulted in a policy change that the UK implemented uh somewhat argue right at the wrong time they stepped into the market they started buying uh the guilt or pounds and uh they did a market intervention at the same time they cut taxes and so this combination of cutting taxes and providing liquidity to the market uh made a lot of people sit up and take notice because it is really going against uh what literally every other Central Bank is doing in the world which is raising rates and draining liquidity to try to quell inflation top economists and Market strategist Muhammad alerian says the Relentless appreciation of the dollar is terrible news for the global economy and this is really the Genesis to the title of this video which is the dollar is the world economic wrecking ball take a look at a couple of these clips of Muhammad elyrian and I'll come back with comments Muhammad what is it the perfect world is a world where central banks are synchronized and they tell each other what they're they're ready to do do you think this was a surprise to to uh the FED here and is it I've seen two takes already on Twitter one is finally someone's doing the responsible thing in terms of data dependency uh and then I've seen another one said well now we know how firm their resolve was over in the UK they have they have feet of clay I mean how do we view it uh long term do we want all the do we want the world Central Bankers synchronized in tightening to conquer inflation or do we want you know people to to go their own way based on their own currency or their own circumstances so first of all this has nothing to do with data dependency the data dependency today would have me meant a more hawkish Central Bank not a central bank that puts in liquidity the numbers that came out this morning in the UK showed that um prices at supermarkets the inflation rate is going up so this is not data depending right this is responding to the risk of Market malfunction and real concern about financial accidents this is what this is now it goes counter to what they need to do for inflation so it highlights the inconsistency of monetary policy look Joe you and I have always warned the longer you stay in this La La Land of QE flawed interest rates dislocated markets um funny interventions distorting asset allocation the longer you stay in the harder the exit and what we are seeing is that the exit is really complicated Muhammad I guess the data I was talking about was was the pound in equity markets around the world around the world so that's more of a fed put uh data and and obviously that's not what central Bankers should should respond to but the you see what I'm saying I'm not talking about the inflation data I'm talking about the effects that the tightening is having do you think the FED should take on your account with what's happening seven percent mortgage rates I mean maybe they need to look around well if they worried about mortgage rate it's because they're worried about the impact on the real economy um what they cannot do because of inflation is providing in in the money good they just caught um that those days are gone I think all of us have to recognize that we are going through a major paradigm shift in financial conditions um central banks have to step back they overdid they overdid it they were late in recognizing what they had triggered and now they need to step back the problem is stepping back is very risky um and the last thing the FED wants is to find himself in this major inconsistency that the bank of England now finds itself in it was about to do QT it announced that it would hike even more aggressively in on November 3rd and now it's injecting liquidity can you walk us through one by one what you think needs to happen here imminently in the next few days the next few weeks yeah and let's take the example of the UK because I think it's very illustrative so John we knew we knew that the exit from the Paradigm of easy money was gonna be hard and we thought that the major challenge was going to be the balance between inflation and research and risk as you heard um in the tape the question now is financial stability that it turns out that there's also significant financial stability risk and all it takes is some action some unforeseen action in The Case of the UK was the fiscal action to trigger um this financial stability concern so suddenly the bank of England finds itself in the ECB situation where it has to to figure out how to use monetary policy to contain inflation and then some other measure to contain Financial Risk and then these two things are in conflict so we we've discovered that this is an even more complicated exert and it doesn't help that central banks are late so I just think we have to buckle up a seat belt even Tighter and we have to recognize that policy makers are no longer repressors of volatility but they contribute to volatility and that this journey is going to be incredibly bumpy and hopefully the new destination is a better one because it's less distorted but it's a very bumpy Journey yes okay so I think what he is really objecting to here is the inconsistency between what the British Central Bank was saying only a few weeks ago where it was going to uh go through QT and actually tighten credit and continue to raise interest rates um what they base what basically happened was they caved when they saw the degree to which um their currency was getting crushed because the strength of the dollar and as a result of that uh and as a result of them seeing their Sovereign bonds getting crushed uh they had to they felt that they had to step in and provide liquidity to the market that combined with a policy of cutting taxes which is actually inflationary uh just runs counter to everything that the central banks all around the world are doing and I think what he's looking for is more consistency but you can see the degree to which the strengthening in the dollar is even affecting Nations like Great Britain okay so where does this leave us we all knew that when the United States fed and the other central banks around the world committed to QT and raising interest rates we all knew it was going to be painful but what we're seeing right now in this new paradigm that went from incredibly tight monetary policy printing money keeping interest rates at zero to now Rising interest rates and declining liquidity you're going to experience Market dislocation in developing nations and we're seeing also in the developed world this is going to be a very painful process to unwind because it was completely manufactured by bad government policy all around the world and extremely bad uh fed policy in Central Bank policy and now all of these distortions and all of the the uh bubbles asset bubbles that were created in the world have to be um corrected and it's going to be very painful and it's going to be very dislocating to markets around the world all right well thank you for joining me for this video if you got value out of this please like And subscribe I'd love to have you on board on the channel for future videos we put out videos on the economy on the markets on specific stock recommendations and it's all intended to make you a better and hopefully richer investor thanks again for watching and I'll see you on the next video
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