저자: 투자·자산운용의달인채널진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
2020년 8월 기준 SOXL(반도체 3배 ETF)과 TECL(IT섹터 3배 ETF)을 비교. SOXL은 10년간 약 30배 상승, S&P500 대비 압도적 성과. 2011년 이후 수익률은 SOXL 약 23배, TECL 약 21.8배로 SOXL이 소폭 우위지만 MDD는 SOXL -65.83%, TECL -49.67%로 변동성 큼. 2020년 코로나 폭락 후 회복은 TECL이 더 빨랐음. 단기 매매는 SOXL, 장기는 TECL 선호 취지. 미국 주식 소액 투자 및 DMM·SBI 등 증권사 수수료 비교 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
Hello, this is the original conversation from the Master Channel. This time, we're going to do a thorough comparison of the US semiconductor sector ETF and the IT sector ETF, TEC L, which have both seen their stock price increase more than 30 times in 10 years. Actually, the one we'll be looking at this time is FoxL, the third leveraged semiconductor ETF, which we also looked at last time.
But before we get into the main topic, I'd like you to take a look at the chart. This is the 10-year chart. The red line is SoX A, and the line at the bottom, which is not very noticeable and has been flat for a long time, is the S&P 500 chart. Just by looking at this chart, you can see that SoX L has shown extremely high performance.
And SoX L has increased its stock price 30 times in 10 years, completely outperforming the S&P 500. The S&P 500 is also showing very high performance, with an annualized return of nearly 10%, but when you compare the charts, it's completely flat. So, S& P 500 charts also move sideways, and this rebound means that if you get 3 times the leverage, it will be the target of the ETF SOXL.
And in this video, we will thoroughly compare SOXL, which has such destructive power, with the IT sector ETF TECL, which is currently the most popular leveraged ETF, to see which one is performing better. US stocks and Japanese stocks are rising now, and the number of people starting to invest is increasing, so I think it will be a good time for those who are interested in investing in US stocks and those who want to start investing in stocks seriously.
Please watch until the end. I deliver information on US stocks on my channel every day, so if you haven't subscribed yet please subscribe. And this time, since XN is a good target, we will do a two- part series on it. In the first part, we explained the basics of SOXL, so I put a link below so if you haven't seen it yet please take a look.
And in this second part, as I mentioned earlier, TCA In comparison, we'll take a thorough look at whether the IT sector or the semiconductor sector performs better. So, although the introduction has been rather long, let's move on to the main topic. Let's take a thorough look at SOXL and TCL. First, let's review what SOXL and TCL are.
Both are ETFs from the US company BlueGarter Leverage 3, and they are ETFs from a company that's gaining popularity. SOXL is an ETF designed to track three times the daily price movement of the semiconductor sector, and TCL is an ETF designed to track three times the daily price movement of the IT sector.
To put the characteristics of SOXL and TCL simply, SOXL is the semiconductor sector, and semiconductors are actually considered a cyclical sector. Therefore, when the economy is good, manufacturing companies and others are producing semiconductors. Because they manufacture a lot of different things, the demand for semiconductors is very high, so when the economy is good, their performance is strong and their stock price tends to rise.
Conversely, when the economy is bad or the outlook is bleak, they are the first to be sold off. So, the characteristic of SOXL is that it is very favorable to economic trends and is affected by economic trends, and therefore cheap. To begin with, it's not a very famous or popular ETF, so in short, you could say it's an outlier among leveraged ETFs.
On the other hand, TCL is three times the leverage of growth stocks, and right now, stocks like Microsoft and Apple are rising rapidly, and Apple is even hitting new all-time highs, so in the future, with 5G and AI, it's certain that they will provide a lot of returns, so it's an ace in the world of leveraged ETFs.
SP500 is linked to three times the leverage of Uni. TCL has significantly better performance than SPXL, and it's a very popular ETF right now. Comparing the number of constituent stocks, SOX has 30 stocks, which is actually linked to the SOX Index, and the SOX Index is composed of 30 stocks. So TCL has 72 stocks, meaning TCL has more stocks.
The official name of the SOX Index is the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, and it is composed of 30 stocks of semiconductor manufacturing, distribution, and sales companies in the United States. It is calculated with a base value of 100 on December 1, 1993, and as of August 2020 it is at 2200. And this is not leveraged or anything, it is a normal index, so it has risen 22 times in just under 17 years, so I think it can be said that it is an index that has shown very high performance.
When comparing quality, you can look at both as being around 1%, there isn't much difference. However, the difference really comes down to the constituent stocks. On the left is SOX LE and on the right is TCL, but it seems like only Nvidia and Intel are left in the top 10. Since this is the true top 10, I think there are other overlapping stocks, but in the top 10, it's just Nvidia and Intel that are left.
TCL has Apple and Microsoft in the top 2, but A4XL is not included, so I think the constituent stocks are quite different. TCL has Apple and Microsoft alone accounting for nearly 40% of its composition, so the high proportion of these top brands is a characteristic of TCL. Now, I'd like to look at the normal performance, so I'll get ready.
What do you all think of TCL and SOX? Do you think Eldowski has high performance? Before I started working on it, I thought TCL was way ahead, but surprisingly, it's good. The blue line is SOx, and the values in Excel are ECL, but actually, if you compare the performance from 2011 to before the crash in 2019, specifically the performance before the crash in December 2019, surprisingly, SOx's performance and return are better than TCL's.
To get into the details, if you buy 10,000 in January 2011 and reinvest the dividends, SOx would be around 230,000 to 3,700 dollars, which is about 23 times, while TCL would be around 218,000 dollars, which is 21.8 times. If you simply compare the returns, SOx, which has a 3x return in the semiconductor sector, is actually better.
However, does that mean SOx is better? It's not a purely theoretical discussion, and if you write this, it's about C. Well, this is a comparison of how much the returns were, with blue being s and xl and red being tcl. As you can see, the blue line shows a large decline, and looking at 2011, the blue line shows a large decline, while the red line, tcl, did n't decline as much.
Looking at 2013, the blue line is very high, and the red line is about half that, so you can see from this that the volatility of so xl is very high. Below, there is data, and if you look at the rightmost button, "Back Drawdown," you can see how much it declined at its worst point, and so xl was down 65.83%, while tcl was down 49.67%.
This means that in one year, so xl fell by a maximum of 65%. So, to get straight to the point, in terms of performance, SoX is better, but I think the performance of the two is about the same. And as for IT and semiconductors, they've entered the sector three times, and looking at the sector ETF, they've increased more than 20 times, and in 9 years, they've increased more than 20 times, so I think that IT and semiconductors are being bought up quite a bit because they have high future potential.
The correct answer is that Excel's price movements are volatile, and the semiconductor sector is a cyclical sector, so when the economy is good it can rise sharply, but when it's not, it can fall sharply, as you can see just by looking at this chart. Now, I'd like to take a look at the performance of the two stocks in February and March of 2020 and compare them.
If you invested $10,000 in January 2020, what would happen? The red is SoX and the blue is Excel, and as you can see, the blue SoX is better. XL has fallen significantly, and its recovery is slow. Compared to the time of the crash, the decline of the semiconductor ETF SOXN is quite large, and the effects of the pandemic are still lingering, so the recovery is slower than TCL.
Yes, even just looking at the time of the crash, you can see that XL is slower. So, if we've just compared them this time, the conclusion is that if you're going to invest in semiconductors, then SOXN is better. The IT sector is also susceptible to economic fluctuations, but semiconductors are more affected.
So, if you're asking which to invest in, I think TCL is better. Apple and Microsoft are both very promising and their performance has been hardly affected by the pandemic. Visa and Buster, which are ranked 3rd and 4th respectively, are also excellent companies with high operating profit margins, so if you're going to invest in semiconductors, I think TCL is better.
However, SOXL has higher volatility, so if you're looking to trade short-term price movements over a span of one or two months... Well, even if it's a little more expensive, for short-term price movements of about six months or so, what Eto calls it, well, trail, I think it's more of a trade, but if you're looking for short-term price movements, TCL and SOXL move more significantly at night, so I think it's easier to use for short-term purposes.
It's just leveraged investment, and if you're doing it long-term, it basically becomes trend following, so I think the basic principle of leveraged ETFs is to invest when the stock price is rising, so I think it's an investment that you should invest when the stock market is clearly on an upward trend, and then enter the market after deciding on some rules.
Whether it's long-term or short-term investment, I think it's important to decide on some absolute rules, and I think SOXL is good. During the big crash in February and March of 2020, it fell to 60% to 70%, about a quarter of its value. Even before the crash, it was at a level So, for example, if the price has fallen 20% from its recent high, you should definitely buy it.
Or, if you have a profit margin and it's about to disappear, you should definitely buy it. I think it's a good idea to enter the market with leveraged ETFs if you set rules like that. However, a point to note is that while you can expect a return with leveraged ETFs, they are still quite risky. For example, SOXL was down to a quarter of its original value, so if you're a beginner and you're going to invest in a TTF, I recommend starting with a small amount.
I could stop here, but let me add a little more. I think there are many people who have these kinds of questions about stock investing. Nobody around me invests in stocks, so I think there are quite a few people who think that it's just gambling. And strangely enough, it's like when you gamble on horse racing or pachinko and lose 20,000 or 30,000 yen.
People talk about it, but hardly anyone openly says how they're doing it. But that's not true. There are actually a lot of people, especially young people, who are starting to invest in stocks, they just don't talk about it. This is an article from May 2020, and it shows that the number of account holders at securities companies is increasing rapidly, mainly among young people.
The number of account holders in April, which is an account that allows you to trade stocks, was 2.8 times higher than last year. I haven't looked at it myself, but this section shows that the number of account holders has surged, with major companies having about 110,000 in April, which is about three times the number for the same month last year.
Well, some people started when stock prices fell sharply due to the pandemic, so that's part of the reason for the increase, but it's really mainly young people who are starting to invest. So, even if you're thinking about investing in stocks, you might think that you need hundreds of thousands of yen to start investing.
Some of you might be wondering, "Isn't there any way to invest in US stocks?" But actually, you don't need that much money to invest in US stocks. That's because the trading unit for US stocks is the single share unit. In Japan, you trade in units of 100 shares, so for example, in the case of Toyota, you would need more than 600,000 yen, and if you were to invest in something like Haoh, it would cost around 800,000 yen, so you need a considerable amount of money.
However, the trading unit for US stocks is one share. For example, Apple is $385 per share, so you can become a shareholder for about 40,000 yen. Right now, you can become an Apple shareholder for 40,000 yen. And then there's Disney, which is $120, so you can become a shareholder of Disney for about 13,000 yen.
And then there's McDonald's, which is about $200 and Coca-Cola is $48, both traded in units of one share, so you can really start trading with a small amount of money, which is one of the characteristics of US stocks. In addition, there are US ETFs that make it easy to diversify investments with small amounts of money.
That's because, of course, you can trade from as little as one unit. For example, with VO, which tracks the S&P 500, you can buy from $295. With Domar, you can invest in the entire stock market of developed countries excluding the US, from $ 40. Emerging markets are $43. And with VT, which invests in the global market and is diversified across about 8,000 companies, you can start from $80 per unit.
So you can really trade with small amounts. Now, some of you might be thinking, are n't the trading fees for US stocks high? I've heard that they're not that high from Japan, but they were higher in the US. To get straight to the point, the fees from the US were actually bad. Compared to Japanese stocks, they were the leader.
But to be precise, they were overpriced. In fact, in 2019, a brokerage firm emerged that offered commission-free trading of US stocks and US ETFs, and this is DM So, it's about trading, and if you compare them, it's immediately obvious that SBI Securities, Rakuten Securities, and Monex all charge a 0.45% trading fee, which is 0.45% of the transaction amount with a limit of $20, so that's about 2200 yen.
That's about it, but the foreign exchange fee is a little cheaper at Monex, but DMM Securities has no trading fees. So, while SBI, Rakuten, and Monex all charge a 0.45% trading fee, DMM Securities does it for free. So, if you look at this, you can see that DMM Securities is a good deal for trading. I run an investment blog and I've created a more detailed introduction to DMM Securities, which I'll post below, so please take a look if you're interested.
In the article, I've not only covered the advantages and features of DMM Securities, but also knitwear, and I've summarized all of that, and furthermore, within the article, there's the official page. I've also included a link to a brokerage firm where you can trade at a great price. Account opening is free.
If you're thinking about investing from the US, or if you want to seriously invest from the US, I highly recommend opening an account. The stocks I just introduced, S4XL and ECL, are actually not handled by DMM Securities. So, if you're interested in investing in S4XL and TCL, whose stock prices have risen 30 times in 10 years, I recommend SBI Securities, which handles them.
They also have an automatic investment function for US ETFs, and you can change investment trusts with points, etc. And of course, you get the peace of mind of being the largest online brokerage firm. I've included a link to the introduction page below, so if you're interested, please take a look. Account opening is free, so if you're thinking about investing in US stocks, I think it's a brokerage firm where you absolutely won't lose anything by opening an account.
Thank you so much for watching until the end today. If you enjoyed this video, or if you left a like comment, I would be very happy. Also, if you haven't already subscribed to the channel, please do so! I'll continue to upload helpful videos, so please keep watching. I hope to see you again in another video!
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