저자: DavideD'Isidoro · 외국인
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결론: 시장 심리가 탐욕에서 공포로 급변하며 가격이 크게 흔들리니, 감정에 휘둘리지 말고 기업 펀더멘털과 투자 논리에 집중해야 한다. 하워드 막스의 『Mastering the Market Cycle』 내용 인용: 시장은 종종 공포와 탐욕에 의해 움직이며, 투자자들은 극단적 낙관과 극단적 공포 사이를 오간다. 막스는 1999년 버블을 예로 들어, 탐욕이 지배하면 모두 사고 아무도 팔지 않으며, 가격이 너무 높다고 말한 사람들은 틀린 것처럼 보였다고 설명한다. 어떤 사건을 계기로 심리가 뒤집히면 탐욕은 순식간에 공포로 바뀌고, 투자자들은 기회를 놓칠까 두려워하던 데서 돈을 잃을까 두려워하는 상태로 바뀐다. 공포 국면에서는 기술주 등 좋은 기업도 과도하게 기피되며, 버블 붕괴 후 Apple, Microsoft, Amazon 같은 기업이 매력적인 밸류에이션이 된 사례를 든다. 찰리 멍거의 발언 인용: 세상을 움직이는 것은 탐욕보다 질투이며, 사촌이나 이웃이 돈 버는 것을 보고 시장에 뛰어드는 경향이 있다. 교훈 1: 타인의 수익이나 상대적 성과에 질투하지 말고, 자신의 기업과 투자 논리에만 집중하라. 교훈 2: 시장에 너무 깊이 관여하지 말고, 주가와 경제 뉴스를 매일 확인하는 것을 피해 감정적 휘말림을 줄여라. 교훈 3: 많은 사람이 잘못된 이유로 맞는 판단을 할 수 있으며, 가격이 기업가치가 아니라 시장 감정으로 정해질 수 있음을 인식하라. 영상 말미에는 디스코드 커뮤니티와 후원 유도가 포함되어 있다.
다듬은 글
Hi vallindvest friends, I happened to see on Twitter or whatever it's called now, ex two things, first the classic image of the thermometer that measures how scared or euphoric the market is and according to this indicator we are in a phase of fear, I can't tell you when it is reliable and immediately after a page from the book by the great value investor Howard Marx, mastering the Market Cycle, which I highly recommend reading, which talks precisely about the topic of market emotion and so I said to myself, I have all the material to make a video on YouTube.
So on this page of his book, Marx says, it didn't take me long to understand that markets are often driven by fear and skill and essentially that at a certain point, most investors go from one extreme to the other, from being super euphoric to extremely scared and vice versa, and this change in mood moves the market significantly, the market can suffer a collapse or a surge in an absurd way.
When there is this change and Marx says for example that when the market is greedy and euphoric, everyone wants to buy, no one wants to sell and few people find a reason why prices can't continue to rise and this is clearly what happened in the 1999 bubble. Greed was the dominant sentiment in the market and those who did not want to participate in the market were forced to watch others get rich and therefore prudent investors, so to speak, even felt a little stupid watching others get rich while they stood by and those who bought like crazy and made the price rise higher and higher felt no fear and the market motto was: there is a new paradigm: jump on the ship before it leaves port and you miss it.
And in any case you can jump now, the price does not matter because it cannot be too high because the markets are efficient so the market said this stock if it went from 100 dollars to 500 it cannot be due to chance or emotion, surely the market is appreciating it at the right price. They are not stupid, they cannot all be wrong en masse.
So even those who when the stock had risen to 300 dollars said it was overvalued and a few weeks later instead it reached 500 dollars. even at 500 dollars the market was saying you were wrong a month ago you said it was overvalued and meanwhile now I'm at 500 dollars Have fun staying poor so everyone perceived a positive cycle that would last forever the technological one But then something changed there was an unspecified event that changed the mood of the market a quarterly report from an important company external consumer to the geopolitical market of monetary policy etc.
we don't know exactly what exactly that completely changed the mood of the market and made everything collapse so the greed and the euphoria of the market suddenly evaporated and were replaced by fear and the motto buy more I can't before I miss the train was replaced with Sell everything before it goes from zero and that's what happened and so people no longer had fear they were no longer afraid of missing out on opportunities to get rich but they were afraid of losing money now and so we went from one extreme to the other investors became excessively cautious now they saw everything as overvalued or that it could collapse at any moment and They didn't even invest a single euro anymore, especially in tech companies because they were afraid of getting screwed over again because in 99-2000 there were many tech companies that were losing money like crazy and they had the organization of a blue chip and obviously in those years after the bubble burst they still had a depression.
Especially in tech companies there were many opportunities, you could buy Apple Microsoft Amazon has excellent valuations. So reading these lines, especially the point where he says that those who didn't participate in the exuberant market and saw others getting rich had a sense of frustration, they felt stupid and sooner or later they would also jump in anyway so it reminds me of something Charlie Manga said in a recent interview and that is that the problem of the world or rather what drives the world is not greed but envy and that's because at a certain point it wasn't greed that made people enter the market even though there had already been a colossal rally, the market was the fact of seeing your cousin, your brother-in-law, your neighbor making money and you weren't, it was managing to get you into the market.
So in my opinion the lessons that can be learned by reading these lines are one: don't look at what happens to others, don't be jealous if they have a lower PMC than yours, how much they are earning, etc., focus only on your companies, on your investment theses, two: Don't stay too much in the market, too involved, otherwise you risk getting emotionally involved and getting caught up in life by the fear of envy, so avoid looking at stock prices every day or reading news about stocks every day or even about the economy, interest rates, inflation, etc.
continuously, three: you have to be aware that many people will be right for the wrong reason, many people will give a 2-3 for a company, but not because the company is worth that money, but because the market's emotionality has brought it to crazy prices. And this means that in the future, if the market sentiment changes, it could become evident that they have removed these investors.
In my opinion, it can be useful to avoid being infected by the irrationality of the market to stay in contact and compare yourself with people who think like this, that is, aware that market prices are often set by investors' feelings and not by the fundamentals. And therefore they try to stay calm and in the varinvest Circle in our discord group We help each other to stay rational as much as possible even if obviously it is not easy So if you want to join us it will be enough as always to support my channel with a small monthly contribution on patreon and you will have access to the discord group I leave you the link in the description a like to the video if you liked it and see you next time Ciao from Davide
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