저자: DavideD'Isidoro · 외국인
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데이비드 테퍼 포트폴리오 상위 5종목(우버, 알파벳, TSMC, 마이크론, 아마존)을 분석. 우버는 CEO 자사주 매입과 로보택시 우려 대비 하방 제한으로 단기 상승 가능성 언급. 알파벳은 유통·데이터·TPU 우위로 장기 보유 매력. TSMC는 지정학 할인 과도하나 반도체 사이클 리스크 존재. 마이크론은 HBM 수요와 메모리 과점 구조를 근거로 하나 사이클 타이밍 필요. 아마존은 capex 우려에도 AWS 백로그 500억달러 근거로 매력, AI 에이전트 리스크는 제한적이라고 봄.
다듬은 글
Hello Value Investor friends. David Tepper is one of the very few super investors in the world who has beaten the S&P 500 in both the last 5 years and the last 10 years. But what's really fascinating about Tepper isn't just how much he earns, but how he does it. Unlike other investors I admire like Bill Ackman or Robert Vinall, who almost exclusively look for exceptional compounders to buy and hold for many years, Tepper has a much more flexible and opportunistic approach.
He's not averse to buying stocks that are currently heavily penalized, misunderstood, or hated by the market, but above all, he has the cool head to sell and cash in as soon as the narrative changes and the price reaches its fair value or desired return. There is, however, one characteristic that unites him with the greatest stock pickers in history: the courage to make extremely decisive decisions.
Tepper doesn't diversify for the sake of it or to hide behind the index. At this time, his top five holdings represent nearly 60% of his entire portfolio. When a manager with this track record allocates more than half of his capital to just five stocks, it means two things. First, there is a super in-depth analysis behind it.
Second, that his greatest market convictions are concentrated there. And in this video, we'll take a detailed look at exactly what these five top holdings in Tepper's portfolio are, what the investment thesis and catalyst behind each pick is, and, most importantly, whether they're still a good investment at current prices or whether the market has already appreciated the turnaround.
So, subscribe to the channel if you haven't already, and don't miss this video. We begin our climb to the top at number five in David Tepper's portfolio. Uber. Tepper has a significant allocation to this stock, but he's not the only super investor with a strong bet on the mobility and delivery giant.
Another Wall Street giant, Bill Ackman of Pershing Square, is even more biased towards Uber, to the point of making it the absolute number one position in his portfolio. But what makes Uber even more interesting right now isn't just the consensus among fund managers, it's what's happening at the company's top management , because in September 2026, Uber's CEO purchased about $10 million in his company's shares on the open market, at an average price of $70.96 per share, a value even higher than current market prices.
There is a famous Wall Street principle made famous by Peter Lynch that sums up this situation perfectly and says: "Corporate executives can sell their shares for 1,000 different reasons—to pay taxes, buy a house, or diversify their assets—but they buy for one very clear reason: they think the price is undervalued, that the stock will go up." With this latest operation, the CEO brings his personal capital directly invested in Uber to the monstrous figure of 93 million dollars.
And when a CEO has nearly $100 million of his own wealth invested in the stock, his interests are perfectly aligned with those of the shareholders, and those of David Tepper in this case. But what is the big doubt dividing Wall Street over Uber? One word: robotaxi. Bears see autonomous driving as an existential threat due to the risk of disintermediation.
Players like Waymo or Tesla could launch proprietary networks and bypass Uber and cut it out of the market. For Tepper and Ackman, the market is making a serious mistake, because building a robotaxi is an engineering challenge, but filling it is a networking challenge. And with over 150 million active users, the Uber app is indispensable for any robotaxi manufacturer looking to maintain high fleet utilization rates without spending huge amounts on customer acquisition.
Furthermore, there is a need for a hybrid fleet, at least for the next decade, because between weather conditions, geofencing, and regulations, 100% autonomous driving will take more than a decade to cover every trip. Only Uber has a hybrid network capable of dispatching a robotaxi where it can and a human driver where autonomous driving fails.
So, while the market fears the distant future, Uber is trading at less than 18 times next year's expected earnings . I think there is a risk for the future, I'm talking about the future in 5-10 years. Maybe in 5-10 years Waymo or Tesla will really be able to manage everything autonomously without resorting to Uber.
Furthermore, eliminating the human driver, who accounts for 70-80% of the cost of a ride, would allow autonomous fleets to offer very low prices. Consequently, even if Uber remains the intermediary, it will be able to obtain much lower revenues from its fees, and it is not certain that the increase in ride volumes will be enough to offset the decline in revenues.
However, there is no doubt that at these prices a short-term upside is more likely, given that the robotaxi problem is not yet over, as the market might think, and therefore Uber remains a stock to watch. We continue our climb and arrive at the fourth position in the Tepper, Alphabet or Google portfolio, which represents approximately 8.5-9% of the entire portfolio.
Here too we are talking about a very heavy bet, in which Tepper even increased his position during the second quarter, purchasing at prices not far from current levels. But what is the great fear that has held the market back on Google for so long? And why do Tepper and the big investors see it differently?
The market's main fears are two: the risk of disruption to Google Search, namely the fear that artificial intelligence chatbots like ChatGPT or AI agents could replace the classic Google search bar, eroding the core advertising business. And the second is the explosion of capex, the requirement to invest tens of billions of dollars in data centers and GPUs to stay ahead of the AI race, thus fueling doubts about the return on these investments.
Tepper sees these fears as yet another opportunity to position himself in one of the most profitable and defensible businesses in history, because creating an AI model is an engineering problem, but scaling it to 3 billion people is a distribution problem. Google owns the primary access points to the Internet, namely Android, Chrome, Google Maps, YouTube, etc.
In the coming era of AI agents— autonomous agents capable of performing actions on our behalf—those who simultaneously possess both the native distribution channel and a massive amount of structured data on users and companies have an unbridgeable advantage. Furthermore, Gemini’s integration into research, the so-called AI Overviews, is already proving to increase overall engagement, rather than destroy it.
And then there's the chip advantage. While nearly all competitors are forced to rely heavily on expensive external GPUs, such as those from Nvidia, Google has been developing its own AI chips, or TPUs, in-house for over a decade. This gives it significantly lower training and inference costs for AI models than its rivals and much more defensible profit margins during this phase of high infrastructure investment.
As we said at the beginning, Tepper is not averse to buying temporarily depressed stocks, but with Google we are talking about a company where, in my opinion , we do not necessarily have to be picky about the entry price. It is an exceptional compounder, capable of growing its intrinsic value year after year by continuously launching new products, services and innovations, from TPU chips to AI models to autonomous driving.
If you believe in the quality of the company and have a long-term time horizon, earnings like Tepper's at these price levels represent a top-notch opportunity. In third place is the world's leading chipmaker, TSMC, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, which represents approximately 10% of Tepper's entire portfolio.
Here Tepper's bet is based on the gap between the perception of risk and the monopolistic reality of the business. According to Tepper, the geopolitical discount is exaggerated. The market is placing a huge discount on TSMC because of the China-Taiwan threat, but Tepper knows that if that risk were to materialize, the entire global tech economy , from Nvidia to Apple, would collapse.
In short, TSMC is no riskier than its customers, even if the market thinks so. Furthermore, TSMC is not affected by the chip race. While Wall Street is busy betting on who will win the battle between Nvidia, AMD, or Google and Meta’s proprietary chips, Tepper doesn’t care who wins the race. Everyone has to go through TSMC to print their chips.
Seeing a tech monopolist of this caliber, with incredible sales growth and software company-like margins, trading at a forward P/E below 20 makes Tepper's pick tempting. Furthermore, the opening of new factories in the United States, Japan and Germany is progressively reducing geopolitical risk. But there is one key element to keep in mind.
The semiconductor industry has historically been highly cyclical. TSMC's growth has never been a straight line; it has always experienced significant peaks and valleys. When global demand slows, and a cyclical slowdown will come sooner or later, market multiples will also undergo a correction. Successfully investing in companies like TSM requires more than just recognizing a fantastic monopoly; it requires the macroeconomic acumen and timing of a veteran like Tepper, capable of getting in at the right times and exiting before the cycle reverses course.
In second place is another semiconductor company, Micron, which has now represented about 15% of Tepper's entire stock portfolio . Here Tepper implements his classic strategy of identifying leading companies in highly cyclical sectors when the market is underestimating the extent or duration of the expansion phase.
The bullish thesis on Micron is based on three key points. First, the structural oligopoly of RAM memories. The sector has consolidated and is now in the hands of just three players, Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron. Compared to the past, when there were wild price wars, this structure ensures much more discipline in capital allocation and production capacity management , smoothing out the negative peaks of the cycles.
The second point is the hyper-demand for HBM memories for AI. Next-generation AI chips require huge amounts of HBM memory. Producing an HBM chip requires up to three times the silicon wafer capacity of traditional DRAM memory. This creates a general shortage of supply, also pushing up the prices of standard memory for PCs and servers.
The third point is geopolitical positioning. Micron is the only DRAM memory manufacturer based in the United States. This gives it a huge strategic advantage, as it can enjoy protection and subsidies from the government. The same considerations made for TSM apply here too . The secret is knowing what stage of the cycle you are in.
Tepper is a master at capturing these turning points. The real challenge is understanding how many retail investors have the same timing and discipline as Tepper. We only know that in Q2 Tepper significantly reduced his position in Micron, but who knows what he will have done in the Q3 just ended and above all what he will do in the coming quarters and years.
In short, if we don't know how to read semiconductor cycles, I don't think it's a good idea to try to blindly copy it. Before we discover the absolute number one position in David Tepper's portfolio, I remind you that all the companies we analyzed today, and hundreds of other in-depth investment theses, can be found within the Value Investor circle, our community on Discord.
If you want to read detailed analyses, follow updates on numerous companies, and engage daily with other passionate investors like you, the Value Investors Circle is the right place. Plus, by subscribing you'll be giving concrete support to this channel. Find the link to access it below in the description.
So, the top position in Tepper's portfolio is Amazon with almost 16% of the portfolio. Amazon’s forward P/E has plummeted in recent years, hitting near all-time lows with a forward P/E of 27. What caused this valuation collapse? The concerns are always the same: the costs of the cloud. Amazon has planned to spend a whopping $200–220 billion in capital expenditures through 2026, much of which will go toward AI infrastructure and AWS data centers.
This financial commitment has pushed recent free cash flow into negative territory, fueling market doubts about the time needed to fully monetize AI investments. And while AWS remains the market leader, competitive pressure from Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud requires continued, massive investment to sustain growth.
But while the market penalizes capex as a cost item, Tepper sees it as building an economic moat that very few competitors in the world can afford. AWS has an order backlog of nearly $500 billion with extremely high operating margins, demonstrating that enterprise demand is real, solid, and contracted for the long term.
That's why Tepper increased his position in Amazon in Q2, and the stock price today is not far from those levels. So we can buy Amazon today at a similar price to what Tepper recently paid . I would add that recently, with the launch and great success in the United States of Muse, Meta's new AI agent, a further risk has been added for Amazon: the risk of disintermediation.
As an Amazon shareholder, I'll be honest: the risk exists because if AI agents really take hold, the risk to Amazon's advertising business is real, because if an AI agent searches, selects, and purchases products for us on the web, users will spend much less time scrolling through Amazon pages. Less site traffic means fewer ad impressions, and as a result, merchants may be less willing to pay Amazon millions to advertise their products at the top of search results.
And advertising is Amazon's most profitable business. However, as I said in a previous video, I don't think Amazon will be disintermediated. In fact, it could see an increase in sales volumes if agents truly make online shopping much easier and faster. Even though agents will make it easier to compare prices between different e-commerce sites, certainly increasing competition, I don't think people will base their online purchases solely on price.
They also consider delivery reliability, speed , guaranteed product authenticity, customer service experience, and the warranty and ease of returns—all things Amazon is absolutely top-notch at. So yes, agents will also offer us products from other sites, but we will probably ask the agent to buy it on Amazon.
But this, as always, is just my opinion. Let me know your thoughts in the comments on all the companies I've analyzed today. Like the video if you enjoyed it, and I'll see you next time. Hello from Davide.
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