저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 하워드 막스는 현재 시장이 저수익 환경이며 SPY 등 대형주 ETF로의 자금 쏠림과 고수익채 ETF의 유동성 착시에 우려를 표한다. [자금 이동 해석] 자금이 SPY로 들어가고 하이일드 신용에서 빠져나가는 현상은 금리 상승을 예상한 방어적 이동일 수 있다. 반대로 작년 주식 수익률이 채권보다 좋아서 주식을 쫓는 모멘텀 효과일 수도 있다. 사람들은 작년 성과가 내년에도 반복된다고 오해하며 모멘텀이 스스로를 강화하고 있다. [주요 우려] 막스는 주식 ETF와 하이일드 ETF 모두를 걱정한다고 답했다. 하이일로 채권은 본질적으로 변동성이 크지만 사람들은 ETF가 유동적일 것이라 믿고 산다. 기초자산보다 투자수단이 더 유동적일 수는 없다는 점이 핵심 문제다. [주식 밸류에이션] 막스가 언급한 메모에서 S&P500의 PER은 역사상 세 번째로 높았다. 급등 이후 주식에 뛰어드는 것은 위험하다고 경고했다. 현재는 저수익 세계이며 쉽게 투자할 곳이 없다는 것이 결론이다. [패시브 투자 비판] SPY 등 패시브 펀드로 자동조종 투자하는 자금이 약 1조 달러에 달한다. 찰리 멍거를 인용해 '쉬운 것은 없다'며 쉽다고 생각하는 사람은 바보라고 했다. [스마트 베타] 스마트 베타는 규칙 기반 인덱스지만 본질적으로 반(半)능동 전략이다. 좋은 결정을 하면 패시브보다 나은 성과를, 나쁜 결정을 하면 더 나쁜 성과를 낸다. 소형주, 기술주, 저품질주를 선호하는 것은 능동적 베팅이라고 설명했다. [HYG 프리미엄/디스카운트] 아이셰어즈 Matt Tucker는 ETF가 시장 정보를 실시간 반영하기 때문에 괴리가 생긴다고 설명했다. 막스는 이론적으로는 맞다고 보면서도 '~여야 한다(should)'와 '~할 것이다(will)'는 다르다고 지적했다. 49년 경험상 이론과 현실은 자주 어긋난다고 강조했다. [액티브 ETF] Next Shares(Eaton Vance 구조)의 액티브 ETF 참여 배경을 묻는 질문이 있었다. 막스는 투자자가 올바른 이유와 기대를 갖고 ETF를 산다면 좋은 수단이며, 소매 시장에 투자상품을 제공하는 방법이라고 평가했다. [출연자 전망] 단기 지수 방향에 대한 명시적 가격 예측은 없고, 전반적으로 신중하고 방어적인 입장이다.
다듬은 글
Howard, what is your view when data comes out showing that money is going into SPY, big cap US stocks , and coming out of high yield credit ? Well, you may or may not see this as constructive. The constructive explanation is that interest rates are going to rise, which is not good for bond investments, so people have decided to get out .
Um, and you can't argue with that ending. A less constructive explanation is that stocks performed much better than bonds last year , so now everyone is saying, " Oh, I want stocks." Now, what they really want are stocks from a year ago or maybe stocks from eight years ago. But in reality, you can't buy them.
But you know, people misunderstand and they think that what happened last year is indicative of what will happen next year . So, this is a momentum that is building on itself. At this stage of the market and economic cycle , what are you most concerned about ? Like equity ETFs that attract more bids by driving up prices, as you said, or high yield ETFs that promise liquidity even when the underlying securities are highly volatile?
Okay, good question. What am I most worried about ? The easy answer is, I'm worried about both . I find this difficult to calculate . But you're right. You know, I wrote about High Yield, yes. Bond ETFs and you know, high yield bonds are inherently volatile and people buy ETFs instead of bonds, thinking the ETF will be liquid .
But how can an investment vehicle be more liquid than the underlying assets? So that's a big question. And when it comes to stocks, yes, you should be concerned about jumping into stocks after they have gone up significantly . I released this memo you mentioned this week and the S&P 500's PE ratio is the third highest in history .
And you need to think about this. So, the answer is that we are in a world of low returns and there is no easy place to invest. This is one of the most interesting points you've written about buying assets on autopilot through passive funds like SPY, is n't it? This is absolutely true. It took almost a trillion dollars to buy that money .
I'd like to know your opinion on what smart beta is , it's a rules-based index, but it takes the fundamentals that active managers like, puts them into an index recipe and buys them based on the fundamentals. What is your opinion on Smart Beta? Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett's partner, once told me, "None of this is easy." Those who think this is easy are fools.
Can you achieve better results by moving from a passive vehicle to an active vehicle, isn't that what smart beta is all about ? I think we could call this a semi-active vehicle . The answer is, if the decisions made are good, it will be better. And if the decisions made are bad, it will be worse . The great thing about the investment business is that you can't get rich just by doing something.
You have to do it right. For example, if you want a smart beta fund, you want to prioritize small caps, technology, and low quality. That's an active bet. On those topics. If you make good decisions, you will make more money than a passive fund. If you make the wrong decision, you will earn less. Whether it's passive or semi-active, whatever type of ETF it is, I'd like to know your thoughts on the difficulties HYG has faced in the past .
We spoke to Matt Tucker, Head of Fixed Income at iShares, about whether HYG will ever trade at an 8% premium or discount, as it did in 2008 . He said that was impossible, and then gave this explanation . Let's listen. What those premiums or discounts are telling you is that the ETF is telling you where the market is .
In most cases, if an ETF is at a premium, it is because the prices of the underlying bonds have not risen, meaning they are not yet reflecting new market information , but the ETF is reflecting it in real time . So what Matt is saying is that ETFs can be an effective tool for finding prices in securities that have low liquidity.
Do you think what he said is correct ? Is he wrong? I think he is correct in theory . I think he is saying that ETFs trade more actively and in less time , which is why they accurately reflect current prices . What he's saying is , for example, there could be an ETF backed by a hundred bonds . Even though the value of those bonds did not increase, the value of the ETF increased on the expectation that they would.
It might work, again it's a proactive decision, do you like it? But, you know, ETFs are said to trade at NAV, and the word ' should' is very important in that sentence. Yes? In my 49 years of experience in this field, I have seen many times that ' should' and ' will' are not the same thing . Sometimes what is supposed to happen happens , other times what is supposed to happen doesn't .
True. True. In that regard, we heard that you are working with 'Eat Advance' for 'Next Shares'. It is an exchange- traded managed fund, which allows active managers to utilize the ETF structure without having to disclose their holdings every day. What was the reason behind your decision to participate in it?
An ETF is a vehicle used to participate in a specific set of securities. It could be a passive index . That could be smart beta , where you try to boost passive index returns by making some active decisions in terms of style . Or it could be active management provided through an instrument traded on the market .
You know, as long as people are buying ETFs for the right reasons and with the right expectations , I think they're good . And I think this is a way of offering investment products to the retail market .
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