저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: 짐 로저스는 다음 약세장이 본인 생애 최악이 될 것이라며 달러 위험과 금·은 보유를 강조했지만, 1~3개월 단위의 구체적 가격 방향은 제시하지 않았다. [거시·약세장 전망] 다음 약세장은 과도한 부채와 돈 찍어내기 때문에 본인 생애 최악일 것이라고 주장했다. 2021년 현재 미국이 대규모로 돈을 찍고 무역적자가 사상 최고 수준이라고 지적했다. [1970년대 비교] 1970년대처럼 인플레이션과 고금리, 원자재 수급 불균형이 나타날 가능성을 언급했다. 영국이 100년 전 세계 1위 기축통화국이었다가 50년 만에 파산한 사례를 들며 미국도 같은 일이 일어날 수 있다고 경고했다. [달러] 달러는 위기 때 안전자산으로 몰려 단기적으로 과대평가될 수 있으나, 그 이후 장기간 하락할 수 있다고 봤다. 본인은 아직 달러 자산을 보유 중이며 과열 때 매도하기를 희망한다고 했다. 대체 기축통화가 무엇일지는 모른다고 답했다. [금·은] 금 보유를 유지하며 앞으로 더 살 것이라고 밝혔다. 은은 역사적으로 금보다 싸다고 보고, 지금 산다면 은을 더 살 것이라고 말했다. 1981년 은 고점(약 50달러 수준)을 언급하며 40년간 두 번 50달러에 도달했고 언젠가 다시 50달러에 갈 것으로 본다고 했다. 다만 구체적 기간이나 목표가는 제시하지 않았다. [포트폴리오 조언] 금·은은 보험 성격으로 누구나 조금은 가져야 하며, 지식이 많을수록 비중을 늘릴 수 있다고 했다. 광산주는 전문 지식이 있을 때만 의미가 있고, 대부분의 광산은 실패한다고 경고했다. [리스크] 중앙은행 정책 실패와 정치인의 무지가 큰 위험 요인으로 언급됐다. 금본위제 복귀 가능성은 낮다고 봤다. [기타] 여행·현장 경험 중요성을 강조했고, 정부 선전과 현실 간 괴리를 지적했다. 종목·지수·환율에 대한 1~3개월 방향 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
hello jim uh we are very happy and honored to have you join for the german precious metals conference edel metal mesa 2021 edition thank you so much for your time uh for making us time you're in singapore correct i am in singapore yes it's five in the afternoon here yes i am in singapore great perfect how are you doing fine i mean i well it's hard to travel everything is locked down most of the world but other than that i'm so far so good do you at least see a tren improving trend a little bit for for covid or for the traveling or has it has it been tough still well yeah well singapore goes up and down up and down they change their mind quite a lot right at the moment it's very difficult to do anything in singapore but it's certainly better than it has been and and all over the world you know i'm not in lockdown i'm not in i'm not in quarantine i'm sitting here talking to you from my own home my own office so that's great okay great thank you so so uh our first question i mean we we really respect your your experience and and advice that you could give and you started working in wall street already in the 60s and and you you worked through all the 70s with the stagflationary period and there's a saying that history doesn't rhyme it doesn't repeat itself but it rhymes so so do you see any similarities um between the 70s and now and and what did you what how did it feel like back then and how does it feel now for you well back then uh of course we started having gigantic money printing debt because of the vietnamese war is what started it but it kept going in the united states and we had shortages supply and demand got out of whack for many raw materials many commodities including gold and silver for historic reasons so we had a lot of inflation high interest rates bad markets etc i would suspect we're certainly starting to have inflation again lots of money printing much more borrowing now much more spending now than then and so i would suspect that things are going to get pretty bad in those days we had a big bull market in the 60s uh in fact a bubble at the end of the 60s we're probably going to have a we're starting to have a bubble now in some some asset so i suspect we'll have a bubble then we'll have a big collapse we'll have money printing inflation debt and problems i would suspect wolfgang the next time we have a bear market it's going to be the worst in my lifetime and i say that because in 2008 we had a problem because of too much debt well since then oh okay the debt everywhere has skyrock even china now has a lot of debt so the next bear market is going to be terrible yeah and already now still now and supposedly we're recovering from covet and and the for example the u.s they're printing money like it's it's going out of style and and the trade deficits are at record highs but so so what what i find what i'm curious about i mean the u.s is really basically printing money and importing real goods for the money how long do you think uh will it take until for example china says we will not give you any more real products for for your paper money of course i exaggerate with this question but but it's right now it's still accepted although the the trade deficits are above uh seven minus 73 billion already per month well i'm not sure you exaggerate you know you ask about the 70s uh 100 years ago the british britain was the number one country in the world there was no number two um the pounds starting with the world's reserve currency etc etc 50 years later in the 70s britain went bankrupt and nobody would take their money so don't say it cannot happen again that happened in 50 years and in less than a lifetime because they made many mistakes they printed a lot of money etc the united states is probably making a lot of mistakes now they're certainly printing a lot of money borrowing a lot of money same thing the british did at one time we are the u.s is now the number one country in the world in the world's reserve currency but didn't take long for the british to change and it certainly can happen and will happen to the u.s i still own assets in the u.s including u.s dollars but you ask about the 70s that's what happened in the 70s it certainly can happen in the next decade there's no question about that but at the moment people still use the us dollar i own the us dollar so i haven't given up on the us dollar yet oh good to hear at least uh well it will maybe be more gradual than than sudden but yeah so you're more you're not in the dollar bear camp or do you think that the dollar the the dixie for example will go down or or it's probably more complicated than that it's always more complicated than that wolfgang if you've been around the markets you know it's always more complicated than that well i own the us dollar now because when turmoil comes people look for a safe haven now many people think the us dollar is a safe haven it's not it's not but people think it is for historic reasons so when the next big problem comes the dollar will go higher it will get overvalued and i hope i'm smart enough to sell my us dollars because that may be the last bit um i would suspect that then the us dollar will go down for a while and maybe for who knows for a very very long time just like the pound sterling yeah but i don't know what i'm gonna your next question should be well what are you gonna replace the dollar with and i don't know at the moment uh that's a very very good question which i will have to deal with when the dollar gets overpriced yeah it's sort of this is the real uh challenge now because we had countries going into devaluation of the currency or even hyperinflation argentina venezuela and so on and we even had countries that came out of it and they they always sort of backed their currency or they linked it to the dollar so now what happened what happens what can the dollar link it to and then of course there are some people in the gold camp that say it it must be linked to gold but but this is also this is uncharted territory to go back on a gold standard isn't it well the world has tried the gold standard a few times in history uh it's it's never worked for long for many many many reasons and that's why we don't have the gold standard now because it always leads to more problems but i mean i do own gold i don't think i don't own gold um and i will certainly buy more somewhere along the line doubt if the world will try the gold standard again just because it causes problems for politicians i mean the gold standard is tough politicians don't like anything that's tough uh i don't know what will replace the us dollar uh or even compete with the us dollars several countries now china russia india brazil several countries are trying to come up with a competitor to the us dollar because we need it the world needs a competitor to the u.s dollar and something will come up i hope i'm smart enough to figure it out yeah but gold still still is a good asset no matter what uh if there would be a gold standard or no isn't it i mean we the central banks still hold a lot of gold the central banks in the east have added a lot of gold um so actually and and the western central banks have maybe reduced their gold holdings or had them stable what do you think which ones are smarter of the central banks do you think they should be adding adding gold to to their reserves the central banks well as i said i'm going to be buying more gold somewhere along the line i hope i'm smarter than central banks i hope all of us are smarter than central banks are not very smart people in most central banks but i do plan to buy more gold animal probably silver if i were buying today i would buy silver just because silver's cheaper today on a historic basis than gold but i would be i hope i'm smart enough to buy more of both somewhere along the line of course i'm an old peasant and all of us old peasants know that when things go wrong we want some gold in the closet we want some silver under the bed because we know that's the only thing that's going to save us yes yes totally agree and uh and in switzerland in switzerland all the old peasants in switzerland know they better have some gold and silver absolutely and and it's actually people don't talk about it so much i even have i talked to to investors recently that and they they were actually quite bearish on gold and they kept contradict they kept talking negatively about it and later i found out they have a huge gold position in their fund they just they just have it i mean i think then so basically i mean historically 10 people say is is a good good position to have in normal times do you think of course you can't give investment advice but but maybe on on this video interview but what do you think is would be a good position to hold in in these more crazy times than than that we that we are facing now is it 10 a good good percentage or it depends on what you know if you know a lot about gold and silver maybe a hundred percent should do what you own uh if you don't know anything about gold and silver you should not own much gold and silver everybody should own a little bit as an insurance policy if nothing else you hope you never need your gold and silver if you need it you're glad you have it so yes everybody should have a little bit and then it depends on how much you know how much how knowledgeable you are uh i don't know how much i will own eventually but i know it's going to be more than i own now excellent yeah and and you already touched upon silver what's your opinion on silver as a diversification or as additional precious metal you mentioned the gold silver ratio or it's historically undervalued if gold has a nice run we could expect silver going up even more maybe well silver's down 60 percent from its all-time high gold is down 10 from its all-time high so on a historic basis anyway silver is cheaper it doesn't mean anything but it does mean that it is cheaper historically so that is why i would probably buy more silver than gold so it does have many use new uses solar energy electric cars you can use more silver you know the silver has many uses not just a nice thing to look at so i i will probably buy i'll buy more of both eventually but probably more silver if the prices were the same ratio as today yeah and plus the all-time high was early 80s where it was was it 60 or so 60 in the early 80s were was something different than sixty dollars are now so uh actually it was actually it was actually fifty fifty yeah in 1981 right and it's been 50 us dollars twice um in the past 40 years uh and i would suspect it's going to go to 50 again before this is over okay great yeah so and instead of like physical holdings would you do do you own any mining shares do you think that's also a good of course if you if you're experienced if you have knowledge in the sector uh mining shares of course can can also be interesting or silver gold mining shares again wolfgang if you know what you're doing yes but there are hundreds of gold mines and silver mines in the world there was a famous american writer once who said the definition of a gold mine a gold mine is a hole in the ground with a liar standing at the top of the hole he obviously lost a lot of money in a gold mine if you know a company which is going to find gold in berlin please buy all you can and then send me an email i want to buy it too but there are hundreds of i own i think one or two but you know futures are a good way for people who know what they're doing physical is a good way depends on what you know yeah absolutely so so can i ask you about your travel you you have done two famous trips around the world this is a book from your second trip around the world adventure capitalist and and i imagine if you visited more than 110 countries i think 116 it was if i remember correctly on the second trip um what would you recommend now people nowadays do because people are more and more just sitting at home or on their smartphone shouldn't they also go out and and meet people and and see the real world like you did maybe they don't have the means to travel three years around the world but but they could what would you recommend to young people now what they should do too i would strongly urge all young people especially but everybody to spend see some of the world if you can you will learn more about your own country if you see the rest of the world you will learn more about yourself if you see some it's a fantastic education to have to travel by yourself and cross a border in the desert or in the jungle or something no it will teach you a lot about the world teach you that most of the things that you have been taught are wrong about the world you will also find that most people are not dangerous you know we're all afraid of each other because politicians say they're terrible people they're not terrible people so i would strongly and you don't have to go to five-star hotels you can hitchhike you can take the bus there are many many ways to travel i urge everybody to do it and it will be a fantastic education you can always go back to your own country i'm not saying don't go home no if you if you are german and you see the world for a couple of years you can still go back to germany if you want to but maybe you want to go somewhere else you know millions of people in the world started in another country their families started in another country great thank you so much yeah that's great advice for i i consider myself also still young and i'm 46 years old but i still have to do more traveling in in the future and i also find it's it's it's fantastic experience to to to meet people and and talk to them rather than being in front of the screen and and thinking about theories so and thinking about government propaganda no matter where you live there's government propaganda that's telling you things about other countries and it's probably not right go out there and find out for yourself and they're not really practitioners normally the government i mean here in switzerland actually it's where i am currently the most of the politicians have a full-time job and they are just part-time politicians but for example in germany most politicians are career politicians they come out of university and they do nothing else than politics they've never worked they've never earned money uh from a company they've never run a company it's really their theo they're in theory in their theoretic world so yeah their advice cannot be so good that's one of the problems in the world many politicians in the world are full-time politicians they don't know anything about the real world or the rest of the world or even their own country because all they've ever done is go to school and go to politics you're exactly right but that's the way the world is and we have to understand that and we have to deal with it yeah yeah so let's hope traveling will be be easier again soon and we get out of this covet pandemic sometime soon and we we for from the german precious metals fair we would really love to have you as a speaker in the future with when it's a physical event again and um yeah we hope to see you around in munich maybe in 2022 that would be great very very very keen i love munich i love germany i love gold and silver so have you been to munich or have you been to munich many times yes more i've been to the hofbrau house many times no i've been a meeting often excellent yeah the oktoberfest got cancelled again this year so this is a big blow for all the people in munich because this is a very very important event of course but yeah we really hope that it will come back and and we we hope to welcome you as a speaker at the physical event maybe in 2022 and we thank you so much for your time and we wish you all the best to singapore and um yeah speak to you soon thank you for thank you thank you very much let's do it again sometime i hope to see you next year thank you so much tim bye-bye thank you thank you thank you thank you thank you you
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