저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 시장은 '가진 자(비트 거래 기술기업)'와 '못 가진 자(물리·전통 산업)'로 극단적으로 양극화되어 있으며, 이 괴리가 사모시장·벤처로 번지며 장기간의 포트폴리오 리밸런싱을 촉발할 것이다. [공개시장 양극화] 페이스북·애플·아마존·마이크로소프트·구글 등 상위 기업과 창업자 주도 기술기업(총마진 80~90%)이 강세이고, 호텔·항공·자동차 등 전통 산업은 크게 훼손되었다. 시가총액가중 S&P500(사실상 소수 기술주)과 동일가중 지수 간 스프레드가 매우 크다. [사모·비공개 시장] 코인베이스, 인스타카트, 팔로알토네트웍스, 넷스코프(비공개), 슬랙 등 팬데믹 수혜 기업은 성장·수익성이 개선된 반면, 2~3선 기업은 구조조정·해고를 강요받고 있다. [자본 조달 구조 문제] 과거에는 4~6년 육성 후 상장해 상장 후 2~3년을 공개시장이 누렸으나, 지금은 민간 자금 과잉으로 기업이 8~10년간 비공개 상태에 머문다. 펀드 존속기간(10년, 성장펀드 7년+연장)과의 시간 불일치로 평가이익은 있으나 현금화되지 않는 대규모 잠재 부담(overhang)이 쌓였다. [연쇄 반응] 연기금·LP가 벤처 비중이 과도하다고 판단해 매도 → 세컨더리 매각 증가 → 벤처펀드는 신규 펀드 결성에 어려움. 사모펀드는 산업재·실물 자산 중심(현금흐름 기반)이라 특히 취약하며 IRR 하락이 LP에게 전이될 것으로 봤다. [리스크·조건] 사모펀드가 다음 도미노이며, 포트폴리오를 재평가하면 밸류에이션 조정이 2~3차 파급될 수 있다. 공개시장 밸류에이션 역시 도전적 국면이 될 것이나, 현금을 보유한 투자자가 보상받을 것이라고 언급했다. [출연자 전망] 장기적 구조 조정이 진행 중이며 기술 '비트' 기업과 전통 '원자' 기업의 괴리가 계속 확대될 것이라는 견해.
다듬은 글
come on sleepy the fascinating podcast a couple years ago with Kara Swisher and you've got a lot of interesting conversations with her and you talked a lot about Silicon Valley and about how the culture is broken and the system of capital formation is broken we'd love for you to talk a little bit about you know your your explanation of that theory as well as how you think the pandemic might even exacerbate that the shift that we're seeing out of Silicon Valley or some of the disillusionment that people in the tech industry are seeing with Silicon Valley so I think that there's a dispersion happening and that dispersion is not dissimilar to what's happening in the public markets if I had to characterize the public market dispersion it's essentially that we are separating the haves and the have-nots and the haves are companies that traffic in bits so you know Facebook Apple Amazon Microsoft Google above all others but then underneath them you know largely founder led technology businesses okay that have the 80 to 90 percent gross margins even if they're unprofitable so those are the haves the trafficking bits have nots or the companies have traffic and Adams you know if you're a hotel company an airline and auto business those businesses are incredibly impaired and there's been a dispersion and a spread where you could basically essentially if you if you bought the the weighted S&P index which essentially is a way of getting synthetically along these handful of tech businesses and shortened the unweighted index which is you know basically getting an equal weighting of everything else you can see this massive dispersion in spread of it that's happening in private markets as well except what we're looking at are companies that either are benefiting from the pandemic so tail winds that are driving positive growth and profitability so companies like you know coinbase or instacart or you know Palo Alto Networks which is public or netskope which is private you know internet security businesses or slack we don't which is a collaboration business so they're they're these companies a mixture of private and public and then businesses that we're second and third-tier also-rans are again just getting crushed and they're they're being forced to fire and lay people off underneath that dynamic is something that's been broken in the valley for while which is that the cycle of building and profiting from companies has taken too long it used to be the case that we would build a company for four to six years and then take it public and then the public markets would participate in the last two or three years of evolving the business now what happens is there's so much private money that these companies stagnate in the private markets for eight nine and ten years the problem is that for LPS it doesn't work because if you have these ten year fund lives and you know if you're a growth fund maybe a seven year fund life with a couple one-year renewals the timing mismatch now that it's creating is this massive overhang where you have these you know paper values and I are ours that can't be monetized and so that's feeding a cycle where even faster than normal Aldys are looking at secondary firms and saying let me sell some of these things I mean we balance my portfolio because my public's are getting crushed by you know if you look at private equity it's very challenged because they predominantly traffic in Adams you know they're buying industrials companies they're buying things that are real tangible things that you buy with you know current free cash flow that stuff is very very challenged and so as a result the IRR is that these pension funds and other LPS will see are going to be challenged they then look at their venture exposure and say wow I have way too much exposure and so then they're selling then the venture funds themselves are thinking to themselves wow I'm having a lot of trouble raising a new fund so it's a very complicated cycle John but that's what we're engaged in right now is is this essentially a massive multi-year long portfolio rebalancing and you know the public's are leading the way so that dispersion is creating a dislocation private equity is the next Domino to fall because when they really reset their portfolios and revalue them you know two three four orders now into the full scale breadth of the consumer demand shock that we're dealing with and then venture folks will have to take the back seat but it's going to make valuations very challenging in the public markets and you and you're gonna be rewarded for having money you
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