저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: 금·은 등 실물자산을 일부 보유하라는 주장이며, 미국 부채 증가와 달러 패권 약화를 근거로 든다. 미국 부채·통화 관련 미국은 역사상 가장 큰 채무국이며 부채가 날마다 늘고 있다고 주장한다. 중앙은행(연준·일본은행)이 무제한 돈 찍기를 하고 있으며, 이는 결국 나쁜 결말로 이어진다고 본다. 국제 기축통화는 보통 100~150년 이상 지속되지 않는다는 역사적 관점을 제시하며, 달러 패권도 영원하지 않다고 말한다. 실물자산 투자 은·금 등 실물자산을 조금이라도 보유하라고 권한다. 은 광산 투자는 위험하다며 개인적으로는 실물이나 ETF를 선호한다고 밝힌다. 시장 버블 판단 아마존·테슬라·삼성 등 일부 기술주에 버블이 있다고 보지만, 버블이 끝나지 않았을 수 있다고 말한다. 채권시장은 전 세계적으로 버블 상태이며, 금리는 역사상 최저 수준이라고 평가한다. 서울 일부 지역 부동산과 주식 일부에도 버블 조짐이 있다고 본다. 상대적으로 싼 자산 원자재는 아직 싼 편이라고 본다. 은은 역대 최고가 대비 약 45~50% 낮고, 설탕은 80% 가까이 하락했다고 언급한다. 리스크 규제 변경, 레버리지 투자의 위험성(헌트 형제 사례)을 경고한다. 출연자 전망 미국 정책 기조가 달러 약세와 실물자산 강세로 이어질 것이라는 장기 관점을 강조한다.
다듬은 글
i have invested in minors in the past at times but i have none i don't think at the moment no i have none at the moment you know mark twain was once asked about a gold mine investing in gold mines and he said well a gold mine is a hole in the ground with a liar at the top and one could say the same about a silver mine if you know what you're doing and you know the miners and what you're doing please invest in the silver mine because you're going to make much much much more if you know a company that's going to find silver in berlin buy all you can and then let me know but the problem is for me there are thousands of silver mine opportunities out there i'm too lazy now anyway to know what i'm doing so i would prefer to invite invest in the real stuff or maybe etfs this has never been done before in recorded history the amount of debt that the u.s and let's speak about the u.s but we can talk about many other countries but the us is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world in the history of the world and it's getting higher and higher every day every week it's astonishing what's happening you know jim it's a good time to be old but certainly a gold america because we're getting the benefits but it's bad to be young my teenage daughters are going to have to pay for all this someday and it is not a good future we're leaving to them now speaking of the phds at the at the fed early i think it was early in 2008 maybe late 2007 the head phd in writing said you know we have a thousand phds here at the federal reserve they're the smartest phds in the world and there are people out there who's saying that all of this is going to end badly we're going to have problems in the housing market we're going to have debt problems what are they talking about we have a thousand of the smartest phds in this is in writing he said all this and right we have a thousand of the smartest phds in the world they don't know what those critics don't know what they're talking about we've got it under control well of course they had to cover themselves for the next 10 or 15 years they had to print print print print you know because they were so full and now janet yellen who is also a head of the central bank recently she's got degrees from two very famous ivy league universities now she says don't worry everything is under control she's now the secretary of the trade we won't have any more problems in japan the head of the central bank says and this is his word we will print unlimited unlimited amounts of money and i'm sure mr powell and mrs yellen and everybody they know think that's a wonderful idea they think that is great unlimited printing and unlimited borrowing oh that's heaven heaven heaven i'm afraid and i'm not afraid i know that when things get really bad they're all going to say look the japanese are right the mmt people are right let's just print it why should we worry about anything i i have read enough history to know what eventually happens i've read enough history to know that no world international currency has been on top for more than a hundred hundred and fifty years i mean history is pretty clear about this um the u.s dollar has been on top for a long time but it ain't going to last forever there are for many fundamental reasons such as the fact that the u.s is a gigantic debtor now are people looking for something to compete with the us dollar but also for political reasons you know an international reserve currency is supposed to be neutral but if washington gets angry at you they cut you off they put you on sanctions so this many countries say wait wait wait a minute that's not the way it's supposed to work an international reserve currency is not supposed to be political it's supposed to be neutral so they for political and economic reasons are looking for something to compete with the u.s dollar so i mean listen i don't like saying any of this i got to face facts you know you better have a little silver in your pocket or a little gold in your pocket because this is history is very clear about how this ends we bought silver 20 because we we saw what was we saw something was going on we didn't know what uh we sold out obviously before the hunt brothers did no uh the hunts for whatever reason we were told at the time that the hunt brothers were devout christians and the bible said that the ratio for gold to silver should be 16 to one and the hunt brothers read that and said we got to buy silver because it says here in our bibles that silver should be 16 to 1.
so they bought and bought and bought and bought now like all good americans the guys who are losing money and control the market change the rules you know in chicago they changed the rules they changed the margin requirements and the hunt brothers got wiped out because the government and the merc and the people at the exchange didn't like losing money and they had the votes and they had the power so they changed the rules on the hunt brothers and the hunt brothers got wiped out because they were doing it on leverage but in the markets i see bubbles developing i mean this is not my first rodeo guys i've been here before um it's not i don't think we're in a well yeah amazon and and 10 cent and samsung are in a bubble but that doesn't mean the bubbles ending yet these stocks go up every day they never go down and everybody's buying them and making money and talking about how easy it is but there are many stocks not just in the u.s all over the world that are still not up i mean the japanese market's still down 35 from its all-time high wow no so we have bubbles developing certainly the bond market is a bubble all over the world interest rates have never never been this low in the history of the world and the entire world recorded history if interest rates been this low so we know that's a bubble i know property in seoul and some cities is in a bubble i know stocks are beginning to have a bubble the only thing that i know that is still cheap the only asset class are commodities i mean silver is still 45 nearly 50 from its all-time high now yeah that's not a bubble sugar is down 70 or 80 percent from its all-time that's not a bubble guys yeah you
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