저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 인플레이션이 이미 높아 경기침체이며 달러 붕괴 위기가 임박했으므로 금·은과 금광주를 지금 적극 매수해야 한다는 주장. 인플레이션 및 경기 판단: 정부 발표 CPI 4.25%는 과소추정이며 존 윌리엄스 방식(1980년식 계산)으로는 11~12% 수준이라고 주장. 인플레이션을 디플레이트한 GDP로 보면 실제로는 경기침체 상태이며, 고용 부진과 무제한 통화 발행이 경기 착시를 만든다고 설명. 무역적자 사상 최대 기록 등을 근거로 달러 붕괴 위기가 가까웠다고 경고. 노동 참여 감소: 정부 지원금이 노동 유인을 낮춘다고 주장하며, 이 흐름이 인플레이션을 더 키울 것이라 봄. 금·은 전망: 2022년 인플레이션이 2021년보다 더 나쁘고 2023년은 더 나쁠 것이라 예측. 금은 아직 오르지 않았지만 금리 인상 기대가 가격을 누르고 있을 뿐이며, 머지않아 폭등할 것이라 주장. 금·은 실물 매수와 금광주 투자를 권유. 비트코인 전망: 비트코인 거품이 정점을 찍었을 가능성이 높다고 봄. 6.5만 달러가 고점이며 훨씬 낮아질 것이고, 반등은 매도 기회라고 주장. 기관 참여 확대는 고점 신호이며 레버리지 대출 청산에 따른 급락 위험을 경고. 리스크: 예측이 빗나갈 수 있다는 점은 명시하지 않았고 금·은 폭등을 확신에 찬 어조로 말함. 출연자: 본인 채널 단독 진행(Peter Schiff 본인 발언) 기준으로 정리.
다듬은 글
i uh gold as we're almost at all-time highs on gold again uh and really if you take a look at real inflation john williams is on he says well you know when they say it's four and a quarter percent you know i look at inflation like it was done in 1980 before they put all the gimmicks in and didn't count in energy or or food or you know rents equivalent housing and all the you know junk that makes it look better than what it really is and he says you know it's 11 12 now his inflation is really if you were looking at 1980 not is that so what it is now it's not four percent that's what their cpi four and a quarter or whatever so i mean we have much higher inflation right now hasn't the uh in my so my question is has it the inflation genie of all out of the body and it's up there doing this going hi i'm the inflation i mean is it already out it is out and you know what that also means see if the rate of inflation is already 10 or 11 that means that we're in a recession because you know that means that the gdp numbers that were being spoon-fed from the government they say oh the economy is growing seven eight percent a year well that's because they're assuming inflation is less than two percent because the numbers are adjusted for inflation but if you have to deflate the gdp for the actual rate of inflation well then we're in recession and that makes sense we are in recession because look how many people aren't working the only difference is everybody's got a lot of money to spend even though they don't have a job because we keep printing it so this is all inflation creating the illusion of economic growth but if you properly measure inflation that reveals the reality of recession which is what the economy is in and the only reason you know we're surviving is because the rest of the world is providing us with all the goods that we don't produce we have these record high merchandise trade debts since we get another number coming out on friday which will probably break the record that was set during the prior month but this is a completely dysfunctional economy that is going to collapse when the bottom drops out of the dollar and i think that that crisis is close at hand um what about all this 16 16 16 million people on some kind of federal dole they can't get people to to to uh to drive nails they can't get people to process chickens they can't get people to they can't get people to come in they're like i need to go to the mailbox get my check is that going to stop uh what's your view i know you're you're an economist you manage all this money i mean how do you manage money around that well i don't think it's going to stop i mean why would people want to work when the government gives them a better alternative i mean people in general don't want to work i mean there are some people that really enjoy their jobs and they have a stimulating career but the vast majority of people who work would rather not be there but you know they need to eat they need to pay the rent and so they go to work right people look forward to the weekend because they'd rather have you know have have some time off right it's it's thank god it's friday right it's not thank god it's monday nobody is excited uh for a monday right so now the government is like hey every day is friday every day is saturday stay home we're going to give you a check in fact we'll actually give you more money to stay at home and to enjoy leisure than what you would have earned if you had a you know actually commute back and forth every day to a job you don't even like uh so it's no wonder that a lot of people aren't going to work and you know as the economy gets weaker and weaker more and more people are going to have that opportunity because the government is never going to acknowledge that it's to cause the problem and it's not going to deny the voters something for nothing so they're going to keep on printing money and you know inflation is going to run out of control and the only reason that gold you're mentioning gold the reason it hasn't taken off yet and don't press your luck right everybody should be all in with their gold and silver allocation whatever that allocation is going to be you should be all in uh because you're not going to get the opportunity to buy much cheaper but what is going to happen is one day the price is just going to explode and i don't know when that day is is it tomorrow is it next week is it next month i don't know uh but the price is going to go way up not just the price of gold and silver but the premiums to actually get it you know and how long you're gonna have to wait to get to get delivery all that stuff so better to buy the stuff now buy your gold and silver get invested in these mining stocks because what happened is as we've got this big increase in consumer prices and this is just getting started right it's not transitory at all inflation in 2022 is going to be even worse than 2021 as bad as 21 2021 is going to be 2022 is going to be even worse followed by 2023 which will probably be even worse than that but as all the people who did not expect to see this right they're totally surprised by the numbers they're seeing on consumer prices the reason that gold is not rising and this is frustrating a lot of people who you know hey why is it gold going up i mean look at what's happening the reason that gold and silver haven't already reacted in such a big way to this you know obvious uh spike in crisis is because everybody who did not expect this to happen and that is most of the people on wall street they also believe the fed when the fed says it's transitory and they also believe the fed is going to be raising interest rates and reducing its asset purchases tapering this uh qe that it's doing and so it's the expectation of this tighter monetary policy and the belief that this inflation is only transitory and not permanent that is what is keeping people from buying gold in fact the expectations of a tighter monetary policy around the corner is acting to suppress gold because traders are factoring that future tightening in to the present market but what is going to happen very soon is the people who are betting on higher interest rates because they think the fed is going to fight inflation are going to realize that the fed is not going to fight the fed is going to surrender without a fight that inflation is going to win and it's actually going to be much higher in the future than it is now the price of gold is just going to go ballistic people are going to have to quickly buy back the gold that they might have sold or buy gold that they never owned and you're not going to have the sellers in the market and you're just going to see the market go straight up uh which i want to get to bitcoin i know you're not a fan of bitcoin but i've been following it because i've been telling people listen you better know what you're doing because you can get monkey hammered i mean bitcoin was at 60 and then it went down to 31 and then it's back up to 39 but the thing that gets me is big money i mean you got blackrock we like bitcoin but they didn't like it at 19 000 or 10 000.
they liked it at 35. uh yeah new york mellon bank the 41 trillion under management though they we like it at 35 10. uh you got uh even uh you have uh you know with uh what's his name elon musk you know he liked it at 35 000 too bank of america goldman sachs you know and now ray dalio oh i like ethereum and bitcoin and you know every currency has its day i mean aren't these people worried about the dollar this isn't just agreed trade is this as much of a fear trade about what's going to happen to the dollar in the treasury market but i i think that there's a very good chance that the bitcoin bubble has peaked now i thought that it peaked out at 20 000 you know back in 2017 i thought there was a good chance that that was the end of it turned out i was wrong it wasn't the end of it we had another uh rally we went up to 65 000.
earlier in the month uh and yes we we got down to just over 30 000 maybe 31 000 uh earlier this week um but i think there's another good chance that that was the peak that 65 000 was the top and we're headed much much lower and the fact that you had some high profile names kind of get involved near the peak that's typical of the way bull markets or manias end you do get some kind of capitulation where some of the earlier naysayers or doubters finally you know jump in because they can't they can't take it anymore they've been missing out on the party and they finally have to uh have to join it and they end up joining very late but i think a lot of the wall street banks that got involved they don't give a damn they just thought they could make some money they saw other banks involved in the trading of it and they just you know they just wanted the fees or whatever revenue they could generate i think the actual number of institutions that got involved is very very small and now i think those that didn't get involved are glad that they didn't and i think that those that did are now trying to figure out how they can get out i think the momentum is cracked i think the chart looks horrible you've got us big head and shoulders top we've busted through it uh the market you know is on a very bad slope i think the rallies are going to be sold yeah sure they'll be buying the dips on the way down uh because people have been trained to do that but i think they're gonna get burned because they're gonna keep getting bigger and bigger dips uh and you know there's a lot of leverage in the crypto space now because a lot of people had big gains uh and they wanted to you know buy some stuff but they didn't want to sell their crypto because they thought it would keep going up and so a lot of people borrowed against their bitcoin and they went out and bought a car or they bought a house but they haven't sold their bitcoin uh and that means the the lenders at some point are gonna force sell because they're going to have to you know get the collateral turned into cash for these loans so i think we could see a vicious sell-off that hasn't even happened yet i mean we haven't really seen a crash uh you know to the degree that one is coming we've seen a pretty big price decline but i don't think we've seen anything yet and i also think it makes sense to me that this is happening now that's
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