저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 인플레이션은 정부 재정적자를 메우기 위한 사실상의 세금이며, 연준이 금리를 인위적으로 낮게 유지하려 해 미국 중산층·저소득층이 1970년대보다 심한 인플레이션을 겪을 것이라는 비관론. 인플레이션의 원인: 정부가 기록적 재정적자를 돈 찍기로 메우면서 구매력이 줄어드는 것이 인플레이션이며, 물가 상승은 정부 재정 조달을 위한 세금이라는 주장. 연준의 역할: 주가·부동산·정부를 떠받치기 위해 금리를 0 수준으로 억제하고 국채를 매입하며 돈을 찍고 있어 인플레이션을 구조적으로 유발함. 연준은 문제를 축소·부인해 왔고, 인플레이션을 억제할 능력이 없다고 봄. 반론(상대 패널): 2020년 통화량이 몇 달 만에 약 25% 늘었다는 점은 우려 요인이나, 전년 대비 CPI 급등의 상당 부분은 2020년 봄 유가 폭락(WTI 마이너스) 기저효과에 따른 에너지 가격 반등(약 50% 상승)과 중고차·자동차보험(각 약 30%, 17% 상승) 수급 요인이라고 설명. 헤드라인 CPI 자체는 그다지 놀랍지 않으나 금융시장 신호는 더 우려스럽다고 함. 글로벌 관점: 선진국과 신흥국 모두 대규모 재정·통화 부양을 했고 인플레이션이 대칭적으로 나타나는 전 세계적 현상이며, 패널(전 중앙은행 출신)은 인플레이션을 일시적 효과로 봄. 스키프 결론: 연준은 위기를 부인하는 방식으로 대응해 왔고, 금리 인상으로 인플레이션을 잡으면 정부가 지출 삭감과 디폴트 위험에 직면하므로 실질적 대응이 불가능. 팬데믹 이전 인플레이션까지 누적되어 생활비의 장기적 대폭 상승이 불가피하다고 주장. 언급 종목·자산 방향: 개별 종목 및 주가·채권·환율에 대한 구체적 가격 전망은 언급되지 않음. 금리 관련 함의는 '연준이 금리를 0 수준으로 억제하며 인위적 저금리 유지' 및 '고금리 전환 시 정부 위기'라는 정성적 언급에 그침. 리스크: 인플레이션의 장기 고착, 연준 정책 실패, 정부 재정 위기 및 디폴트 가능성, 실질 구매력 하락. 출연자 전망: 스키프는 장기적 생활비 대폭 상승 및 1970년대를 능가하는 인플레이션을 예상. 패널은 인플레이션이 일시적이라고 봄.
다듬은 글
uh peter i i've been walking obviously i'm a news a junkie i'm always trying to figure out what's going on i cover a wide um breadth of media and there seems to be a lot of questions about the severity of the inflation that we're experiencing how long it's going to last and actually where it's coming from uh i know this is your uh your one of your great specializations and i compliment you i see you all the time on a variety of programs what is your take here because if i can just add the little salt and pepper to it it's been politicized as well as usual go ahead peter well you laid it out correctly in the intro inflation is a tax and the source is government because that's who taxes us the only way to reduce inflation would be to dramatically cut government spending because government spending is being paid for through inflation we're running record budget deficits and so instead of taking our money and spending it the government is taking our purchasing power by printing new money and spending that so the increase in prices that we're all experiencing is the tax that we are paying to finance government in addition the federal reserve is trying to prop up the stock market prop up the real estate market and prop up the us government it can only do that by keeping interest rates artificially low but in order to do that the fed has to keep printing money to buy bonds so as long as the fed is artificially suppressing interest rates it is going to have to create inflation to do it and because we have so much debt the fed is now forced to keep interest rates at zero and that so unfortunately average americans the middle class and the working poor are going to suffer the most severe bout of inflation in u.s history far greater than anything experienced during the decade of the 1970s well you know let me go to pete here in in great barrington i mean one of the explanations i've been told and it's basically coming from the fed this is all temporary it's bent up demand it's gonna you know it'll smooth out as we but that's not happening here okay and and and i mentioned the working class middle class people in my introduction intentionally because i remember i was small i was young but i do remember the 1970s and that was a very very dreary time are we seeing a repeat of that go ahead pete yeah i remember uh stagnation too uh as a kid in the 70s so i agree with everything that uh peter just said peter schiff uh but i i do want to add the following um you know we did have a massive increase in the money supply in 2020 just over 25 in a space of a few months which is definitely a cause for concern but a lot of people are looking at the year-over-year cpi numbers and it's not enough to look at the headline number you have to look at what makes up the index there's two big contributors to the recent jump right so first you have gasoline and oil in the energy basket which we're up over 50 percent year over year but you have to remember that right about a year ago this time we had a situation where russia and saudi arabia unleashed a flood of oil into the markets when demand was plummeting because of lockdowns so you've had this surge in oil prices but it's come from where one point we had west texas uh international um that or intermediate rather at negative 32 dollars or negative 34 a barrel the second thing is we've got a huge spike in used cars and auto insurance 30 to 17 increases respectively which has to do with shortages and people getting back on the road so there are signs of inflation it's worrisome uh but in terms of the cpi number while not an inflation dove that's not very alarming what we see in financial markets that's more alarming okay well let's let's go to our guests in moscow here so if yeah uh i'm i'm very concerned i mean if you look at it globally where is most of this inflation coming from because we have a lot of western governments have pumped huge amounts of money which i find really in some cases it was absolutely necessary i i don't have a problem with that but i mean there's so much money that has been allocated to be pumped into the economy is it really necessary right now because from what i understand a lot of these glowing inc you know uh gdp numbers and all that you know they're saying oh they're all great but is is that counting inflation is inflation pumping up those numbers they're not really real numbers here can you can you make an assessment on a global um of scale when it comes to inflation when because we just mentioned oil used cars saudi arabia russia globally where is the the biggest um tripping point if i could put it that way go ahead well i would say that we are not talking about like any scenarios like stagflation first of all just because the spike of inflation is exactly the product of the recovery of demand and it's like you know probably most unusual is that it's a very uh very symmetric across the globe and the reaction to the crisis was very symmetric across the globe so it was quite different from previous to crisis just because like not only uh advanced economies uh offered uh excessive stimulus not only from a fiscal side but also from a monetary side but first time in two decades emerging markets also offered quite an easy monetary policy so that's that's that's actually makes it a global phenomenon but i probably i would disappoint you but as a former or probably being a former center banker i'm on that side who believe that inflation is a temporary er effect for now okay well that's interesting because you can tell there's that that's the perspective i keep getting here let me go back to peter here is is the fed being responsible here because i mean it's just not over the last 14 months or so that we've seen increased uh huge injections here we've we've seen a a lot of really easy money for a long time now and and then we got supercharged go ahead peter well remember the federal reserve is never responsible uh so why should they change now but remember one of the other things the fed is never is honest right the fed is all about spin it's all about trying to ins so if you recall early in the mortgage crisis when the subprime market blew up and the threat to the entire mortgage market was obvious as was the threat to the economy what did the federal reserve do they came out and reassured everybody that there was nothing to worry about that the subprime problems were contained why did they do that because they were hoping that by denying that the problem existed maybe they could somehow will it out of existence and somehow get people to change their behavior in the face of what should have been an obvious crisis and they were hoping to avert it and i think they're doing the same thing now the fed has absolutely no ability to fight inflation so why even acknowledge that it's a threat when you can't do anything about it so the only thing the fed can do is deny lie to the markets tell everybody that it's all temporary and that explains their failure to act but the real failure to act is because it's impossible because the only way to fight inflation is to turn off the monetary spigots to raise interest rates of card's economy that they've erected we have a worse financial crisis in 2008 the government would be forced to slash spending dramatically they may even have to default on the national debt who knows what would happen if the fed actually fought inflation so because they can't they're just denying the problem but there is absolutely no evidence to suggest what we're really experiencing is the beginning of a long overdue huge increase in the cost of living not only the result of the inflation that the fed has created since the pandemic but of all the inflation that we created before the pandemic that we've yet to deal with
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